AfD surges in eastern Germany—and Washington’s shadow grows as Berlin’s politics harden

Two separate signals are emerging from Germany’s east: a sharp rise in far-right support ahead of the Saxony-Anhalt election on September 6, and a growing perception that the United States is increasing its influence during Donald Trump’s second term. DW reports that the AfD is polling above 40% in Saxony-Anhalt, a predominantly rural eastern state, and asks what is driving that strength. Separately, TASS cites a survey in which nearly 70% of Germans say they have noticed increased US influence, with eastern Germans more likely to report it than those in the west (78% versus 65%). While the articles do not describe policy changes, the timing matters: election momentum and external-influence narratives are converging just as voters prepare to choose a new Landtag. Geopolitically, the cluster points to a feedback loop between domestic political realignment and perceptions of external power. The AfD’s rise—highlighted by DW and echoed by intra-party disputes reported by Handelsblatt over Alice Weidel’s euro stance—suggests the far right is not only winning votes but also shaping the agenda around monetary sovereignty and Europe’s economic architecture. In this environment, narratives about US influence can become a political accelerant, especially in eastern Germany where respondents report higher perceived US sway. The likely beneficiaries are parties that can translate dissatisfaction into a sovereignty frame, while mainstream parties face the risk of losing the center ground on both foreign-policy posture and EU economic questions. Market and economic implications are indirect but potentially material through expectations about Germany’s fiscal and European policy direction. If AfD strength above 40% becomes durable, investors may price higher political risk premia for German and EU policy continuity, with knock-on effects for EUR exposure and European rates. The Handelsblatt focus on an AfD youth dispute over Weidel’s euro course underscores that currency and euro-zone governance could become campaign flashpoints, which can influence sentiment toward EUR-denominated assets and German industrial demand expectations. Separately, the survey finding that US influence is perceived as rising may affect risk sentiment around transatlantic policy coordination, potentially increasing volatility in German export-linked equities and hedging demand for FX and rates instruments. What to watch next is whether AfD’s polling strength holds as the September 6 vote approaches and whether internal euro-policy disputes spill into clearer platform commitments. Key indicators include changes in AfD vote-share in Saxony-Anhalt polls, turnout trends in eastern constituencies, and any campaign messaging that explicitly links US influence narratives to domestic economic grievances. On the external-influence side, monitor further polling or official statements that quantify or contest the “increased US influence” perception, since such narratives can harden into policy demands. Trigger points for escalation would be any sudden shifts in coalition arithmetic, credible threats to block EU or euro-related legislation at the Land level, or a sharp deterioration in cross-party rhetoric that raises the probability of market-unfriendly policy surprises.

Geopolitical Implications

• 01

  Far-right momentum in eastern Germany could reshape Germany’s stance on EU economic governance, increasing uncertainty for euro-zone policy continuity.

• 02

  Perceptions of rising US influence can be weaponized in domestic politics, complicating transatlantic coordination narratives and coalition negotiations.

• 03

  If AfD’s strength persists, it could strengthen sovereignty-based platforms that challenge mainstream approaches to EU integration and monetary policy.

Key Signals

• —AfD vote-share trajectory in Saxony-Anhalt polls through early September
• —Any formal AfD platform clarification on euro policy following the Weidel-course dispute
• —New polling on perceived US influence and whether it correlates with AfD support
• —Coalition formation signals after the September 6 vote and any Land-level legislative threats tied to EU/euro issues