BRICS faces its “stiffest test”: Can India and China help defuse the Hormuz oil chokehold?

A BRICS summit scheduled for September 12–13 has become the latest diplomatic pressure point as the Strait of Hormuz crisis drags on and the United States struggles to secure a quick resolution. The South China Morning Post frames the gathering as a potential venue for India and China—both key regional energy players—to coordinate with other BRICS members and press for a workable settlement. The articles emphasize that hopes are rising that major non-Western stakeholders can align their leverage, even as the global energy crisis tightens the margin for delay. In parallel, market reporting underscores that the near-term prospects for reopening Hormuz are fading, shifting the narrative from “temporary disruption” to “prolonged constraint.” Strategically, Hormuz is a geopolitical fulcrum because it concentrates maritime chokepoint risk into a single corridor that affects both security calculations and energy pricing power. If India and China use BRICS to build a coalition, they could reduce the perceived exclusivity of US-led diplomacy and increase the bargaining space for Iran and Gulf states, while also testing whether BRICS can move from rhetoric to operational coordination. The United States is portrayed as making little headway, implying that Washington’s influence may be limited by the preferences of major importers and by the incentives of regional actors to manage risk without conceding leverage. For Iran, a deadlock can preserve deterrence and negotiating leverage; for Gulf exporters, it raises the cost of uncertainty and could accelerate calls for alternative arrangements. For China and India, the upside is supply stability and price containment, but the downside is reputational and economic exposure if any coalition fails to deliver. On the markets, the energy and industrial supply-chain transmission is already visible. Bloomberg reports aluminum advancing for a seventh consecutive day, with the move linked to concerns that Middle Eastern supplies will remain constrained for longer, effectively repricing risk premia in industrial metals tied to logistics and power costs. CNBC highlights that oil traders are still leaning on the hope of a reopening, but that optimism is likely to erode, which typically translates into higher forward curves and greater volatility in crude benchmarks. While the articles do not provide exact price levels, the direction is clear: fading deal odds are supportive of risk premiums in commodities and can spill into inflation expectations, shipping insurance costs, and refining margins. The combined signal is a market that is transitioning from event-driven optimism to structural pricing of chokepoint risk. What to watch next is whether BRICS diplomacy produces concrete, time-bound messaging that can influence Iran–Gulf risk calculations before September 12. Key indicators include any formal BRICS communiqués referencing Hormuz, changes in shipping behavior through the Strait, and shifts in oil and metals forward spreads that reflect reduced probability of an imminent reopening. Traders will likely monitor signals from major importers—especially India and China—about whether they are coordinating positions rather than merely expressing concern. A trigger for de-escalation would be credible announcements of interim arrangements (e.g., inspection or corridor assurances) that lower perceived disruption risk; a trigger for escalation would be further evidence that negotiations are stalling alongside rising volatility in crude and industrial metals. The timeline implied by the articles places the diplomatic test squarely in mid-September, with markets likely to reprice quickly if the “imminent deal” narrative breaks before then.

Geopolitical Implications

• 01

  BRICS could challenge US-led leverage over Hormuz, increasing multipolar influence on energy security.

• 02

  If India and China fail to deliver, markets may price chokepoint risk as structural rather than temporary.

• 03

  Prolonged constraints may accelerate alternative routing, storage, and hedging strategies across importers and Gulf exporters.

Key Signals

• —BRICS communiqués explicitly referencing Hormuz and proposing interim mechanisms.
• —Shipping and insurance behavior for vessels transiting Hormuz.
• —Oil forward spreads and implied volatility moving away from “imminent reopening” assumptions.
• —Sustained aluminum strength or reversal as a proxy for persistent supply-chain risk.