Far-right momentum surges in Australia and Germany—what happens if AfD and One Nation seize power?

Australia’s western state election in Western Australia delivered a closely watched result that boosted the far-right One Nation party, which has surged in the polls over the past year. The vote is being treated as a key indicator of One Nation’s strength and its potential to translate momentum into durable influence. While the article frames the outcome as a “closely watched” test, the underlying signal is that voters are increasingly willing to reward parties associated with anti-establishment and hard-right politics. For market and policy observers, the immediate takeaway is that political risk premia may rise when election outcomes appear to empower parties with disruptive agendas. In Germany, reporting ahead of a state election in Saxony-Anhalt suggests the anti-immigration, Islamophobic, and Russia-friendly AfD is poised to win and could seek a first-ever governing majority. Migrants in the region are reportedly preparing to leave, reflecting how electoral expectations can quickly reshape social and political risk perceptions. A separate commentary argues that AfD’s success is partly about “identity management,” implying that mainstream parties have not matched the emotional and narrative pull of far-right messaging. Taken together, the cluster points to a transnational pattern: far-right parties are converting cultural and security narratives into electoral leverage, potentially altering how governments handle immigration, social cohesion, and foreign-policy alignment. The market implications are indirect but potentially material through policy channels. In Germany, an AfD-led or AfD-influenced governing outcome in Saxony-Anhalt could affect regional spending priorities, labor-market integration policies, and the regulatory environment for housing and social services, which can feed into local construction and consumer-demand expectations. In Australia, One Nation’s strength could raise uncertainty around energy, industrial relations, and trade-related policy, especially if the party’s platform challenges mainstream positions. While the articles do not provide explicit commodity or FX moves, the likely direction is higher volatility in risk-sensitive segments—regional European equities, German municipal bond sentiment, and Australian domestic-policy-sensitive sectors—rather than a single-commodity shock. What to watch next is whether AfD and One Nation convert electoral gains into governing arrangements or formal coalition leverage. For Saxony-Anhalt, the trigger is the post-election coalition arithmetic: whether AfD can secure a governing majority or become a kingmaker, which would sharpen expectations for immigration and foreign-policy posture. For Western Australia, the key indicator is how quickly One Nation’s vote share translates into legislative bargaining power and whether mainstream parties adjust platforms to reduce far-right appeal. Across both jurisdictions, monitor polling-to-seat conversion, statements on Russia policy and immigration enforcement, and any rapid shifts in public sentiment that could drive further volatility in domestic political risk pricing.

Geopolitical Implications

• 01

  Potential shift in Germany’s subnational-to-national policy pipeline on immigration and integration, with knock-on effects for social stability and EU cohesion narratives.

• 02

  AfD’s Russia-friendly posture could complicate Germany’s broader alignment with EU and NATO preferences if electoral leverage grows.

• 03

  Australia’s One Nation momentum suggests rising political fragmentation that can affect trade, energy, and industrial relations policy direction.

Key Signals

• —Post-election coalition talks in Saxony-Anhalt and any formal statements on immigration enforcement and Russia policy.
• —Polling-to-seat conversion for AfD and One Nation, and whether mainstream parties adjust platforms to blunt far-right appeal.
• —Observable changes in migrant and labor-market behavior (relocation intentions, hiring frictions) that could affect regional economic activity.
• —Any escalation in rhetoric around Islam and immigration that could drive social unrest or regulatory responses.