Germany scrambles for US Tomahawks as Trump tariffs bite—can transatlantic ties survive the next escalation?

Germany is reviving a bid to purchase US Tomahawk cruise missiles, according to Financial Times reporting that the effort is being restarted after a political rupture with President Donald Trump. A fresh push is tied to a planned Washington trip by Germany’s defense minister following Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s fallout with the US president. The articles frame this as both a procurement and a relationship-management move, with Berlin seeking to re-stabilize defense cooperation while US political volatility complicates contracting timelines. The immediate development is that Germany is again positioning itself to buy US long-range strike capability rather than waiting for alternative European pathways. Strategically, the Tomahawk push underscores how European force posture and deterrence planning are increasingly entangled with US domestic politics. If Trump’s approval remains weak and his administration leans into transactional bargaining, European governments may face a harder choice: accept US terms for capabilities and interoperability, or delay modernization and risk capability gaps. Germany benefits from renewed access to US missile production and integration know-how, while the US benefits from defense export leverage and political influence over European procurement priorities. At the same time, the same political environment that drives defense bargaining also drives tariff threats, creating a multi-front pressure campaign that can strain alliance cohesion and shift bargaining power toward Washington. On the economic front, the cluster points to trade friction that is already landing on European industry, with European carmakers taking an estimated €8bn hit from Trump tariffs. The tariff threat is explicit: the US president has warned of raising levies to 25% if the EU does not implement last year’s trade deal. This matters for markets because it links political approval dynamics in the US to concrete demand shocks in autos, a sector with deep supply-chain exposure across industrial Europe. In parallel, defense procurement headlines can support US defense contractors’ order visibility while increasing European budget scrutiny, potentially affecting defense-adjacent industrials and government bond risk premia in euro markets. What to watch next is whether Germany’s Washington trip produces a near-term procurement pathway for Tomahawks, including any signals on pricing, delivery schedules, and technology transfer constraints. A key trigger will be whether Trump’s tariff escalation to 25% is formally pursued and whether EU implementation steps are accepted as sufficient under the “last year’s trade deal” framework. On the political side, US approval and midterm prospects—highlighted by a Financial Times poll showing more than half of voters disapprove of Trump’s economy handling—could influence how aggressively the administration bargains. The escalation/de-escalation timeline likely runs through the next round of US-EU trade implementation assessments and the immediate post-trip contracting decisions in Washington.

Geopolitical Implications

• 01

  Transatlantic security cooperation is becoming more conditional on US domestic politics, increasing procurement uncertainty for European deterrence planning.

• 02

  Tariff bargaining alongside defense procurement suggests a broader transactional strategy that can weaken alliance cohesion and shift leverage toward Washington.

• 03

  If Germany accelerates US missile purchases, it may deepen interoperability and dependence on US supply chains, with long-term implications for European strategic autonomy debates.

• 04

  Escalation in trade friction could divert fiscal space from defense modernization, creating a feedback loop between economic pressure and security capability gaps.

Key Signals

• —Concrete outcomes from Germany’s Washington trip: procurement framework, delivery schedules, and any offsets or industrial participation terms.
• —US-EU trade deal implementation milestones and whether the EU signals compliance sufficient to prevent tariff escalation to 25%.
• —Further polling or approval-rating shifts that indicate whether Trump’s administration will moderate or intensify bargaining.
• —Market guidance from defense contractors and export-control/contracting updates tied to Tomahawk-related orders.