Strait of Hormuz Disruption Drives Record Oil Supply Shock, Pushing Brent/WTI Forecasts Higher

Goldman Sachs has raised its 2026 oil price forecasts, citing the prolonged disruption of crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz as the largest-ever supply shock for global crude markets. The bank expects the supply loss to peak at around 17 million barrels per day, reinforcing a higher-for-longer oil outlook. India, meanwhile, has kept retail fuel prices steady despite the oil basket surging above $155 per barrel (around $156.29 on March 19), indicating active domestic policy buffering. US crude inventories rose by more than 6 million barrels week-over-week, offering limited near-term relief but not offsetting the structural supply risk tied to Hormuz disruptions.

Geopolitical Implications

• 01

  Energy-market geopolitics: Hormuz disruptions translate into global crude risk premia and macro pressure.

• 02

  India’s pricing stability points to domestic political economy management that can shift costs to the budget.

• 03

  US inventory builds may provide temporary relief, but Hormuz-linked supply risk remains the dominant factor.

Key Signals

• —Monitor effective flow losses through the Strait of Hormuz.
• —Track EIA weekly inventory trends for confirmation of offsetting effects.
• —Watch India’s retail pricing policy for signs of subsidy/tax strain.
• —Follow further forecast revisions as a sentiment gauge.