Iran’s “real leverage” is fading—while the Bab el-Mandeb risk keeps markets on edge

Bloomberg’s Ian Bremmer argues that Iran’s geopolitical leverage is real today, but it is likely to diminish as regional disruption becomes harder to sustain. He points to the Houthis’ demonstrated ability to threaten the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and to disruptions affecting Saudi Arabia’s East–West pipeline as concrete examples of how smaller powers can extract concessions through chokepoint pressure. The core claim is that leverage is not only about military capacity, but about the ability to impose costs on logistics and energy flows faster than rivals can adapt. Bremmer’s framing suggests a shift from dramatic, headline-grabbing disruption toward more constrained, less reliable influence. Strategically, the articles collectively highlight a Middle East security and diplomacy triangle: Iran’s indirect pressure tools, Saudi Arabia’s vulnerability in energy routing, and the maritime chokepoints that shape global shipping risk. Even without new sanctions or formal escalations described in the cluster, the logic of leverage implies bargaining power for Iran and for non-state actors aligned with it, while also raising the incentives for regional resilience and counter-pressure. The National Interest piece on Georgia underscores that US “red lines” on Iran remain a governing constraint for partners, implying that some states will calibrate engagement to avoid triggering Washington’s enforcement. Meanwhile, Al Jazeera’s Erdogan interview—focused on foreign policy and regional conflicts—signals that Turkey’s long-running balancing act continues to matter for how regional actors manage escalation risk and diplomatic space. Market and economic implications center on energy routing, maritime insurance, and shipping costs tied to the Bab el-Mandeb corridor. If Houthis can credibly threaten the strait, risk premia can rise quickly for freight and for energy products moving through or near the Red Sea, with knock-on effects for European and Asian importers. Disruptions to Saudi Arabia’s East–West pipeline, even if partial or temporary, can tighten regional supply expectations and increase volatility in crude and refined-product differentials. The cluster therefore points to a market regime where headline risk can move shipping-related pricing and energy spreads even when the underlying political situation is still “managed,” not fully escalated. What to watch next is whether the disruption pattern becomes more frequent, more targeted, or more easily countered by resilience measures. For markets, the key trigger is any measurable change in shipping behavior around Bab el-Mandeb—such as rerouting, higher insurance quotes, or sustained delays—because those are the fastest signals of real leverage. For diplomacy, Georgia’s posture toward Iran under US red lines is a bellwether for how far partners will go before Washington tightens enforcement. For regional diplomacy, Erdogan’s stated approach to conflicts and foreign policy direction should be monitored for signals of mediation, deconfliction, or increased alignment that could either reduce or amplify chokepoint risk.

Geopolitical Implications

• 01

  A shift from dramatic disruption to constrained leverage would change bargaining dynamics and reduce predictability for regional actors and insurers.

• 02

  Maritime chokepoints remain a strategic bargaining arena for Iran-aligned influence, even without direct kinetic escalation described in the cluster.

• 03

  US enforcement of Iran-related red lines can limit diplomatic maneuvering by smaller partners, affecting regional alignment and mediation prospects.

• 04

  Turkey’s stated foreign-policy posture influences how regional conflicts are managed and whether deconfliction channels remain open.

Key Signals

• —Observable rerouting, delay patterns, and marine insurance premium changes for vessels transiting near Bab el-Mandeb
• —Any confirmed, sustained disruptions to Saudi pipeline operations or related energy routing infrastructure
• —Georgia’s public and policy signals on Iran engagement relative to US red-line enforcement
• —Turkey’s diplomatic moves or mediation signals regarding Red Sea and wider regional conflict management