Israel’s right-wing fractures: polls, a sunken ship legacy, and a Netanyahu–Ben-Gvir power struggle

Israeli politics is entering a more volatile phase as right-wing factions compete for ideological ownership and electoral momentum. A new poll reported by Al-Monitor shows Netanyahu trailing former defense minister Eisenkot, while the religious-nationalist People of Israel (Otzma Yehudit) is projected to win six Knesset seats. Separately, Al Jazeera highlights how the wreck of the Altalena—an emblematic legacy tied to the Irgun militia—has reignited a public fight on the Israeli right, with both Netanyahu and Itamar Ben-Gvir each portraying themselves as the rightful heir. The dispute is not only symbolic: it is being used to frame legitimacy, historical continuity, and who can credibly deliver a harder line on security and governance. Strategically, these developments matter because Israel’s governing coalition dynamics are increasingly shaped by intra-right competition rather than a unified bloc. If Eisenkot’s perceived electability continues to rise, it could weaken Netanyahu’s ability to consolidate partners and manage coalition discipline, especially with parties that demand more aggressive policy. The Altalena narrative battle functions as a political weapon, signaling that the right is contesting not just policy outcomes but the moral authority to define national security priorities. In this environment, the winners are likely to be factions that can translate ideological branding into parliamentary arithmetic, while the losers risk being portrayed as insufficiently “authentic” or insufficiently tough. Market and economic implications are indirect but potentially meaningful through risk premia and policy expectations. Political uncertainty tends to influence Israeli risk assets, including local equities and the shekel, by raising the probability of coalition renegotiations and abrupt shifts in security-related spending priorities. If the right-wing bloc continues to fragment, investors may price higher volatility in government formation prospects and in the policy path affecting defense procurement and domestic regulation. While the articles do not cite specific commodity moves, the most plausible transmission channels are FX and rates sensitivity tied to political stability, alongside potential impacts on defense-industrial suppliers and infrastructure contractors that track government budgeting. What to watch next is whether the Netanyahu–Ben-Gvir rivalry escalates from symbolic contestation into concrete coalition bargaining. Key signals include subsequent polling trends on leadership preference, any changes in projected seat shares for People of Israel, and whether Eisenkot’s support consolidates among voters who prioritize security competence. Another trigger is how the Altalena/Irgun legacy dispute is operationalized—whether it becomes a platform for legislative initiatives, cabinet demands, or public confrontations that force coalition partners to choose sides. Over the next weeks, the escalation or de-escalation path will likely hinge on coalition arithmetic in the Knesset and on whether leadership narratives translate into stable electoral coalitions rather than short-lived momentum.

Geopolitical Implications

• 01

  Fragmentation within Israel’s right-wing bloc can reduce coalition stability and complicate unified security policy signaling.

• 02

  Competing historical narratives (Altalena/Irgun legacy) are being weaponized to define who can credibly represent national security priorities.

• 03

  If Eisenkot’s electability rises, it may reshape leadership expectations and alter coalition partner incentives ahead of parliamentary arithmetic.

Key Signals

• —Follow-up polls on leadership preference and seat projections for People of Israel and other right-wing parties
• —Public coalition negotiations or demands tied to security posture and governance authority
• —Whether Altalena/Irgun legacy rhetoric becomes linked to concrete legislative initiatives or cabinet reshuffles
• —Market proxies for political risk: USD/ILS moves, Israeli bond spread changes, and defense-sector sentiment