Jordan’s rare open letter vs U.S. troops as U.S.-Saudi strikes hit Iraq—what’s next for the region?

Hundreds of Jordanian political, legal, and other public figures signed an open letter calling for the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Jordan, marking a rare, public challenge to the government. The letter was circulated “last week,” and its existence signals that domestic debate over the U.S. security footprint is moving from private dissent to organized political pressure. In parallel, reporting on Iraq points to a sharp escalation in external military action: U.S.-Saudi strikes across Iraq killed at least 20 Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) fighters and wounded 32, according to the PMF. Spanish-language coverage frames the strikes as an unprecedented coordinated U.S.-Saudi operation against Iran-aligned militias in Iraq, presented as part of a broader campaign against Iran-linked networks. Strategically, the cluster links three pressure points: basing politics in Jordan, kinetic counter-militia operations in Iraq, and regional diplomacy that may shape how far escalation goes. The Jordan letter suggests the government’s room to maneuver with Washington could be constrained by domestic legitimacy concerns, especially if strikes or regional tensions spill into Jordanian public opinion. In Iraq, the targeting of PMF fighters—an umbrella that includes Iran-aligned factions—raises the risk of retaliation cycles and complicates any future deconfliction with Iraqi state and militia stakeholders. Meanwhile, Pakistan-Kuwait diplomacy, including Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar’s meetings with Kuwait’s Foreign Minister Sheikh Jarrah Jaber Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah, indicates regional actors are actively managing the wider Middle East situation even as violence intensifies. Market and economic implications are most immediate through risk premia and energy/security-linked expectations rather than direct trade flows described in the articles. Strikes across Iraq typically feed into Middle East risk pricing, which can lift crude oil volatility and regional shipping/insurance costs, with knock-on effects for Gulf energy equities and defense contractors. The Iraq PMF casualty figures and the “coordinated” framing by U.S. and Saudi Arabia increase the probability of further disruptions to militia-linked logistics, which can affect diesel and power-generation supply chains in the broader region. Separately, the suspected al Shabaab attack near the Somalia border that killed five Kenyan security officers underscores persistent security risk along East Africa’s frontier, which can influence investor sentiment toward regional security spending and cross-border stability. What to watch next is whether Jordan’s government responds to the open letter with policy adjustments, public messaging, or renewed consultations with Washington. In Iraq, key triggers include any follow-on strikes, public PMF statements naming targets, and signs of retaliatory attacks on U.S. or Saudi interests, as well as any Iraqi government moves to tighten or loosen militia operating space. For diplomacy, Pakistan and Kuwait’s engagement could be a channel for broader de-escalation messaging, so monitor subsequent communiqués and whether other Gulf or regional capitals join coordinated calls for restraint. Finally, in East Africa, track al Shabaab claims, border security posture changes in Kenya, and any escalation in cross-border raids that could widen the security footprint and raise regional risk premiums.

Geopolitical Implications

• 01

  Domestic backlash in Jordan could constrain U.S. basing and intelligence cooperation.

• 02

  Coordinated strikes against PMF-linked forces increase retaliation and deconfliction risks.

• 03

  Regional diplomacy may attempt to manage escalation, but battlefield outcomes will dominate.

• 04

  East Africa security incidents add to broader risk premia and policy burdens.

Key Signals

• —Jordanian government response to the open letter and any U.S. basing policy adjustments.
• —PMF messaging and any named retaliatory targets after the strikes.
• —Frequency and scope of follow-on operations in Iraq.
• —New Pakistan-Kuwait or Gulf communiqués linking diplomacy to de-escalation steps.
• —Kenya border security changes and al Shabaab operational claims.