Netanyahu warns Iran war “not over” as Pakistan relays Tehran’s response to a fragile US ceasefire

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on May 10, 2026 that the war with Iran is “not over,” even as a fragile US-brokered ceasefire remains in place. The statement lands amid reports that Washington has put forward a new peace proposal aimed at ending the regional fighting. According to multiple outlets, Tehran has sent its response to the US through Pakistani intermediaries, signaling that diplomacy is active but politically constrained. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif confirmed that Pakistan received Iran’s response, framing Islamabad as a key channel for de-escalation. Strategically, the cluster highlights a widening gap between public messaging and negotiation reality. Netanyahu’s warning suggests Israel is seeking to preserve leverage and deter any premature normalization that could reduce pressure on Iran, including on sensitive issues such as nuclear enrichment. Meanwhile, Iran’s decision to route its reply via Pakistan underscores Tehran’s preference for backchannel mediation through a state that can manage regional sensitivities and maintain lines to multiple capitals. Pakistan’s role also reflects its balancing act: it is simultaneously a mediator for US-Iran talks and a domestic political stage for commemorating past India-Pakistan conflict episodes. Market and economic implications are likely to run through risk premia rather than immediate, quantified price moves in the articles themselves. Any perceived fragility in a US-Iran ceasefire typically feeds into expectations for higher energy and shipping costs, which can pressure oil-linked equities and increase volatility in regional FX and rates-sensitive assets. The most direct transmission channels are crude oil and refined product pricing, plus insurance and freight costs for Middle East-linked routes, which tend to reprice quickly when ceasefire credibility is questioned. In parallel, the India-Pakistan conflict remembrance context can keep a bid under regional defense spending narratives and sustain risk hedging in South Asian assets, even if the articles do not cite specific market figures. What to watch next is whether the US and Iran move from “response exchanged” to concrete ceasefire mechanics, such as verified pauses, enforcement arrangements, and timelines for follow-on talks. Trigger points include any Israeli statements that further narrow the window for diplomacy, especially around nuclear enrichment demands or conditions for de-escalation. For Pakistan, the key indicator is whether Islamabad’s mediation role expands into a formalized channel with scheduled updates rather than one-off message passing. Over the next days, investors and policymakers should monitor signals of compliance on the ground and any escalation rhetoric that could turn a fragile ceasefire into a short-lived pause.

Geopolitical Implications

• 01

  Israel’s public stance may constrain ceasefire consolidation and shape negotiation conditions.

• 02

  Pakistan’s intermediary role increases its strategic leverage but also its exposure to backlash.

• 03

  US-Iran diplomacy appears active yet fragile, with messaging mismatches raising stall risk.

• 04

  South Asia security postures remain politically salient alongside Middle East de-escalation efforts.

Key Signals

• —US clarification on ceasefire enforcement after receiving Iran’s response.
• —Israeli follow-up statements that add new conditions or broaden demands.
• —Whether Pakistan formalizes the mediation channel with scheduled updates.
• —Compliance signals on the ground and any renewed strike patterns.