Putin’s approval slips as Ukraine strikes inside Russia—while EU sanctions wobble and deserters flee to Germany

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s approval rating reportedly fell by about 5% over the past week, after rising since the start of the war in Ukraine, according to the Spanish outlet elmundo.es on 2026-07-19. The same report links the erosion of support to a mix of battlefield setbacks, Ukrainian attacks occurring on Russian soil, and mounting domestic pressure signals including internet disruptions and fuel shortages. In parallel, Le Monde (2026-07-19) describes how the Kremlin is intensifying efforts to silence anti-war voices ahead of upcoming legislative elections, two months out, targeting rare opposition candidates. The articles collectively portray a leadership facing both external pressure from Ukraine and internal strain that is beginning to show up in public sentiment and governance tactics. Strategically, the cluster highlights a multi-front pressure campaign: Ukraine’s ability to conduct effects inside Russia raises the political cost of the war for the Kremlin, while Russia’s information and supply constraints suggest the state is struggling to sustain normalcy. Domestically, the crackdown on anti-war discourse ahead of legislative elections indicates the Kremlin is prioritizing regime stability over broad social consensus, potentially hardening policy even if public patience thins. Internationally, the Financial Times (2026-07-19) frames a key vulnerability for Western strategy: EU member capitals are resisting new Russia sanctions because they could harm major companies, revealing internal divisions that can dilute enforcement and slow escalation. Germany’s role is also visible through DW’s reporting on Russian deserters seeking asylum, where German authorities deny almost all applications, underscoring how European security and legal constraints shape the human dimension of the war. Market and economic implications are likely to run through sanctions expectations, energy and logistics risk, and defense-linked sentiment. If EU support for additional sanctions continues to fracture, investors may price a lower probability of tighter restrictions on Russian-linked trade and finance, which can affect European industrials with exposure to Russia and the broader risk premium for compliance-heavy sectors. The mention of fuel scarcity in Russia points to potential domestic cost pressures and operational disruptions that can spill into industrial output and state procurement priorities, even if the articles do not quantify volumes. Currency and rates impacts are not directly specified, but the combination of sanctions uncertainty and supply disruptions typically increases volatility in European risk assets and in hedging demand for energy and shipping-related instruments. In the background, the political tightening around elections can also influence the timing and intensity of policy measures that markets treat as catalysts. What to watch next is whether the Kremlin’s election-era repression translates into measurable policy shifts or further economic strain, and whether Ukraine’s cross-border effects persist or intensify. Key indicators include reported internet throttling or outages inside Russia, the trajectory of fuel availability, and any changes in the messaging and legal treatment of anti-war candidates as legislative elections approach. On the EU side, monitor negotiations on any “new Russia sanctions” package, especially whether national capitals reach a compromise that limits corporate damage while preserving enforcement credibility. For Germany, the next signal is whether asylum denials for Russian deserters remain near-universal or if legal outcomes change, which would affect manpower flows and the political narrative around conscription and battlefield attrition. Escalation risk rises if Ukrainian strikes inside Russia become more frequent and if EU sanctions hardening stalls, forcing both sides toward more coercive signaling.

Geopolitical Implications

• 01

  Ukraine’s inside-Russia effects raise the Kremlin’s political costs and can accelerate legitimacy erosion.

• 02

  Election-season repression signals a shift toward coercive governance, reducing near-term de-escalation prospects.

• 03

  EU divisions on sanctions weaken collective leverage and can slow or dilute enforcement.

• 04

  European legal stances toward deserters influence manpower dynamics and humanitarian narratives.

Key Signals

• —Whether Ukrainian strikes inside Russia become more frequent and coincide with further internet/fuel disruptions.
• —Changes in Kremlin election messaging, candidate eligibility, and enforcement against anti-war voices.
• —Progress or stalemate in EU negotiations on new sanctions and the size of corporate carve-outs.
• —German asylum denial rates and any court rulings that could alter outcomes for deserters.