Russia accelerates ruble-first payments and rare-earth push—while reshaping pensions and regional finance

Russia’s deputy prime minister said that more than 50% of settlements in Russia are now conducted either in rubles or in the currencies of “friendly countries,” signaling a continued shift away from G7-linked payment rails. The statement frames the change as already underway rather than a future plan, implying that sanctions-driven financial re-routing is becoming embedded in routine trade settlement. In parallel, Russia’s finance leadership is discussing how to redeploy state savings and manage fiscal buffers more actively. Together, these moves suggest a broader strategy to reduce external financial leverage while tightening domestic capital allocation. Strategically, the ruble-first settlement message is geopolitically consequential because it targets the choke points that sanctions and correspondent banking can impose on cross-border trade. By normalizing non-G7 currency settlement, Russia aims to blunt the effectiveness of financial isolation and to keep import and export flows resilient even if Western compliance pressure rises. The pension and regional-budget discussions add another layer: they indicate the state is looking to mobilize long-duration domestic funds and to stabilize subnational finances, which can reduce social and political risk during periods of external stress. The rare-earth portfolio—licenses on 18 state-registered rare-earth metal projects and openness to dialogue with foreign partners—points to an industrial strategy that can strengthen supply-chain bargaining power in critical minerals. Market and economic implications span payments, sovereign finance, and critical-minerals supply chains. A higher share of settlements in rubles typically supports domestic liquidity and can influence FX volatility and the demand for ruble-denominated instruments, while also changing the hedging behavior of corporates and banks. The National Welfare Fund (NWF) being allocated not only to budget support but also to invest in the economy suggests potential incremental demand for domestic assets and infrastructure/industrial projects, which can affect Russian rates expectations and equity/credit sentiment. The rare-earth licensing and investment posture may influence expectations for downstream processing capacity, with knock-on effects for industrial metals supply chains rather than immediate commodity price moves. In pensions, transferring “molchun” insured persons’ accumulations into long-term savings could shift the flow of funds toward longer-duration investment products, affecting demand for government-linked and corporate long-term instruments. What to watch next is whether Russia formalizes the payment shift through additional settlement frameworks, bank-to-bank arrangements, or expanded use of non-G7 currency settlement in specific trade corridors. On fiscal policy, the key trigger is how the NWF investment mandate evolves—especially any quantified allocation targets and the sectors prioritized for deployment. For social finance, investors should monitor the legislative and operational steps around moving “pensions of the molchuns” into long-term savings, since implementation timing will determine when capital flows actually change. For critical minerals, the next signals are whether the six unallocated rare-earth licenses in the Rosnedra fund are assigned, and whether “dialogue” with foreign partners results in concrete offtake, JV structures, or technology/processing agreements. Escalation risk would rise if sanctions compliance pressure intensifies or if rare-earth cooperation becomes entangled with export-control enforcement, while de-escalation would be signaled by clearer, contractable partner terms and smoother domestic fiscal execution.

Geopolitical Implications

• 01

  Non-G7 currency settlement reduces the leverage of Western financial pressure and strengthens Russia’s ability to sustain trade under sanctions.

• 02

  Mobilizing long-duration domestic savings (pensions and NWF investment) can improve Russia’s economic resilience and dampen external shocks.

• 03

  Rare-earth licensing and openness to partner dialogue indicate an effort to secure critical-minerals influence in future industrial and defense supply chains.

• 04

  Regional fiscal monitoring and support readiness suggest the Kremlin is managing internal stability risks that could otherwise be amplified by external constraints.

Key Signals

• —New settlement frameworks or bank participation that expand ruble/friendly-currency usage beyond headline percentages.
• —Quantified NWF investment targets, sector priorities, and whether allocations increase toward industrial/critical-minerals projects.
• —Legislative/operational milestones for transferring 'molchun' pension accumulations into long-term savings products.
• —Assignment of the six unallocated rare-earth licenses in Rosnedra’s unallocated fund and announcements of processing/offtake partnerships.