Sudan’s currency split deepens as RSF-linked notes circulate—while violence flares from the West Bank to Pakistan

On June 25, Reuters reported that newly issued Sudanese pounds have started circulating in territory controlled by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary group fighting Sudan’s national army. The development immediately raised questions about who is supplying the notes and whether the cash is being issued, acquired, or distributed through RSF-controlled channels. The same day, separate reporting described a Palestinian man being shot and killed by Israeli forces during a raid in the village of Sarta, west of Salfit, in the occupied West Bank. In Pakistan, Dawn reported an IED blast outside a local religious leader’s residence in Ormara, killing a man, while another Dawn item said terrorists used a quadcopter to drop explosives on the Haved police station in Bannu. Geopolitically, the Sudan currency story is a direct signal of state fragmentation: money is one of the last instruments of sovereignty, and parallel circulation can harden de facto borders. If RSF-linked areas can access new notes, the RSF may improve its ability to pay fighters, buy supplies, and sustain governance-like functions, while the national army risks losing monetary leverage and tax/collection capacity. In the West Bank, the Israeli raid and the child death narrative from Hebron underscore how security operations and settlement-linked friction can sustain a cycle of violence that complicates diplomacy and regional stabilization efforts. Meanwhile, the Pakistan incidents point to persistent militant capability across Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, reinforcing the security burden on Islamabad and the risk of further disruptions to local stability. Market and economic implications are most acute for Sudan: currency credibility, inflation expectations, and FX pricing can be destabilized if multiple “valid” note flows emerge across front lines. Even without explicit exchange-rate figures in the articles, the direction of risk is clear—parallel circulation typically increases uncertainty, widens spreads, and can accelerate dollarization in contested areas. For Israel/Palestine-linked risk, the immediate market channel is less about commodities and more about risk premia for regional security and potential disruptions to travel and logistics, though no specific financial instrument was cited. For Pakistan, IED and drone-delivered explosives raise the probability of localized supply-chain interruptions and higher security costs for police and critical infrastructure, which can feed into insurance and regional risk pricing. What to watch next in Sudan is whether the central bank or the national army publicly attributes the notes to a legitimate issuance channel, and whether serial numbers, distribution networks, or procurement sources can be traced. A key trigger point is any escalation in parallel monetary measures—such as additional note batches, forced cash swaps, or restrictions on banknotes crossing front lines. In the West Bank, monitor whether raids in Sarta and incidents in Hebron lead to retaliatory attacks or changes in rules of engagement that could broaden violence. In Pakistan, watch for follow-on claims by militant groups, patterns in quadcopter use, and whether security forces increase surveillance around religious leaders and police stations in Ormara and Bannu over the coming days.

Geopolitical Implications

• 01

  Parallel cash circulation can entrench Sudan’s de facto partition by enabling RSF financing and procurement.

• 02

  Monetary fragmentation may reduce the national army’s leverage over contested areas and complicate stabilization frameworks.

• 03

  Sustained West Bank raids and civilian casualties can harden political positions and raise retaliation risks.

• 04

  Militant drone and IED tactics in Pakistan signal evolving threats that strain internal security.

Key Signals

• —Attribution and tracing of Sudanese banknote issuance and distribution networks.
• —Any RSF or national army moves to validate, restrict, or swap cash across front lines.
• —Retaliation dynamics after Sarta and Hebron incidents.
• —Follow-on drone/quadcopter attacks and increased protective measures around police and religious sites in Pakistan.