Trump moves to unblock F110 engine exports for Turkey’s TF Kaan—will this accelerate a new air-power race?

On June 25, 2026, reports indicated that Donald Trump is set to clear a critical sale of F110 turbofan engines for Turkey’s TF Kaan next-generation fighter, a homegrown platform intended to be powered by dozens of the U.S.-origin engines. The Turkish Air Force is positioned to receive a major boost to its fighter fleet once deliveries begin, making the decision a concrete step in defense industrial cooperation rather than a vague political signal. The same day, commentary from former U.S. Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall raised doubts about the feasibility of banning autonomous weapons, highlighting the policy friction around how quickly autonomy should be regulated. Separately, a National Interest report focused on the U.S. Navy’s aircraft carrier elevator system—specifically ongoing issues on the USS Gerald R. Ford—underscoring that even advanced platforms face reliability constraints that can shape readiness and munitions handling. Strategically, the engine sale is a leverage point in U.S.–Turkey defense ties at a moment when Ankara seeks greater operational autonomy and faster maturation of indigenous capabilities. If Washington approves and delivers, it strengthens Turkey’s ability to field a modern airframe sooner, which can shift regional deterrence dynamics in the Eastern Mediterranean and beyond, while also deepening U.S. influence through sustainment and technical dependence. The Kendall excerpt adds a parallel dimension: even as states pursue autonomy for targeting and survivability, arms control approaches may lag behind operational realities, increasing the risk of uneven adoption and escalation-by-automation. Meanwhile, the carrier elevator reliability narrative matters because it affects how quickly the U.S. can generate sortie capacity and move ordnance aboard a flagship platform—capabilities that underpin power projection and alliance reassurance. Market and economic implications are most visible in defense procurement and industrial supply chains rather than broad macro indicators. A cleared F110 engine export would likely support U.S. defense aerospace revenues and sustainment ecosystems tied to engine production, logistics, and spares, while Turkey’s procurement authorities would face near-term integration and sustainment costs that can ripple into local aerospace subcontracting. On the naval side, persistent elevator problems on the Ford-class can influence U.S. defense contracting priorities, potentially affecting budgets for modernization, maintenance, and mission systems tied to carrier readiness. While the articles do not provide explicit commodity price moves, the direction is clear: defense-related equities and contractors with exposure to propulsion, munitions handling, and sustainment services face a modest positive sentiment impulse, with risk concentrated in execution timelines and technical integration rather than demand collapse. What to watch next is whether the F110 clearance becomes an executed export authorization with delivery schedules, end-user documentation, and any conditions tied to technology transfer or operational use. For autonomy policy, monitor U.S. and allied statements on autonomous weapons governance—especially whether lawmakers or DoD leadership move toward narrower, capability-based rules instead of blanket bans. On naval readiness, track updates on USS Gerald R. Ford elevator fixes, testing outcomes, and any knock-on effects for carrier availability and ammunition loading throughput. Trigger points include formal notification of the engine sale, visible progress in TF Kaan flight-to-production milestones, and measurable improvements (or further delays) in carrier elevator performance that could alter near-term deployment planning.

Geopolitical Implications

• 01

  U.S. engine export approval would deepen defense interdependence with Turkey while potentially shifting regional air-power timelines.

• 02

  The autonomy debate suggests arms-control frameworks may lag operational adoption, increasing uncertainty in escalation dynamics.

• 03

  U.S. carrier readiness constraints from elevator issues can affect deterrence credibility and alliance reassurance during crises.

Key Signals

• —Formal export authorization notice and any end-use/end-user conditions for F110 engines
• —TF Kaan program milestones translating flight testing into production engine integration
• —Public updates on USS Gerald R. Ford elevator troubleshooting outcomes and carrier availability impacts
• —DoD and allied statements on autonomous weapons regulation approach (capability-based vs blanket bans)