Trump’s tariff refund surge meets record-low approval—can a midterm pivot still hold?

A new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll shows Americans’ approval of President Donald Trump’s job performance and his handling of the economy has hit record lows heading into summer, just before a key midterm election. In parallel, a CNN poll conducted by SSRS finds former President Barack Obama is viewed positively by 57% of Americans, far outpacing the ratings for Trump and his two Oval Office successors. Separately, Bloomberg reports Trump is poised to roll out new tariffs while the US Treasury is already refunding unlawfully collected duties to importers, with nearly $22 billion reimbursed in May. The combination of weakening public sentiment and a tariff policy reset—refunds now flowing out faster than new inflows—raises the stakes for how quickly the administration can translate trade actions into visible economic gains. Geopolitically, the story is less about a single trade measure and more about the political economy of trade coercion and fiscal optics. If tariff revenue is being reversed through refunds, the administration’s ability to sustain a hardline trade posture may depend on legislative momentum and narrative control, especially with midterms approaching. The fact that Senate Republicans are described as not in a hurry to deliver Trump’s next reconciliation bill suggests internal constraints that could dilute the speed or scope of policy implementation. Meanwhile, Trump’s frustration that parts of the GOP are not following his roadmap points to a risk of fragmented governance, where trade policy, fiscal policy, and messaging diverge. In this environment, markets and foreign partners may treat tariff announcements as more tactical than structural, increasing uncertainty around future trade regimes. The most direct market implication is for trade-sensitive sectors and instruments tied to tariff expectations and customs flows. A refund cycle of roughly $22 billion in May implies that importers may see near-term relief on previously collected duties, which can soften cost pressures in retail, industrial inputs, and logistics, even as new tariffs are being prepared. The policy mix also affects US Treasury cash flows and could influence expectations for fiscal balance, potentially feeding volatility in US rates and the dollar via risk sentiment. If tariff announcements intensify, investors may price higher inflation risk and supply-chain disruption premia, pressuring equities in import-dependent supply chains while supporting hedges tied to trade volatility. The net effect is likely a tug-of-war: refunds and political gridlock temper immediate tightening, but the prospect of new tariffs keeps downside risk elevated for trade-exposed sectors. Next to watch is whether Trump’s planned tariff rollout is accompanied by clearer legal and administrative grounding that reduces the likelihood of further refunds. On the political side, the key trigger is the timing and content of the next reconciliation bill, since Senate Republicans’ reluctance could delay or narrow the policy package that underpins the trade strategy. Public-opinion indicators—especially approval on the economy—should be monitored for inflection points as midterm campaigning accelerates and as tariff headlines translate into consumer and business cost data. In markets, watch customs-related data, tariff revenue net of refunds, and guidance from Treasury on compliance outcomes, as these will determine whether the “refund faster than inflow” pattern persists. Escalation risk rises if new tariffs are announced without a credible path to legislative support and if refund volumes climb again; de-escalation becomes more plausible if refunds slow and economic messaging improves ahead of the election cycle.

Geopolitical Implications

• 01

  Trade coercion may be treated by markets as more tactical than structural if refunds persist and legislative support is delayed.

• 02

  Domestic political constraints (midterms and GOP infighting) can reduce the credibility of rapid, comprehensive trade reforms.

• 03

  If tariff implementation is slowed or narrowed, US leverage in trade negotiations may weaken, shifting bargaining power toward counterparties.

Key Signals

• —Announcements and implementation details for the next tariff package, including legal/administrative safeguards to reduce refunds.
• —Progress, timing, and scope of the next reconciliation bill in the Senate.
• —Weekly/monthly customs-duty net flows (revenue minus refunds) and Treasury guidance on compliance outcomes.
• —Consumer/business cost indicators that translate tariff headlines into measurable inflation or margin pressure.
• —Polling movement on Trump’s economy handling as midterm campaigning intensifies.