Fragile US-Iran ceasefire rattles markets—does Iran still hold the real Hormuz leverage?

A two-week, US-led ceasefire with Iran has begun to cool energy costs sharply, but the truce is already showing signs of strain. Reuters reports the dollar is wobbling as traders keep markets on edge around the durability of the agreement. Handelsblatt highlights that the ceasefire is “already crumbling” across several fault lines, even as US President Donald Trump portrays his Iran policy as a win. Meanwhile, Japan Times argues Iran has absorbed blows from the US and Israel while retaining—and in some cases strengthening—its core instruments of power, including leverage tied to the Strait of Hormuz. Strategically, the episode underscores a classic bargaining dynamic: Washington seeks near-term risk reduction and price stability, while Tehran preserves deterrence and bargaining power without conceding its long-term position. The key power asymmetry is maritime leverage—control and influence over Hormuz-related risk can translate directly into negotiating leverage, even when kinetic pressure is temporarily paused. Trump’s political framing of victory may help US domestic momentum, but it can also raise the stakes for any perceived backsliding, tightening the window for quiet de-escalation. Poland’s central bank decision-making, while domestic, reflects how European policy teams are calibrating to the same US-Iran risk impulse that is moving global rates and FX. Market implications are already visible across FX, rates, and credit. The dollar’s “wobble” signals fragile risk sentiment and a market that is not fully pricing a durable de-escalation, keeping hedging demand elevated. Bloomberg notes a risk rally is sparking renewed momentum in Asia’s bond market issuance, as borrowers move quickly to lock in funding conditions during the ceasefire window. For Poland, Bloomberg reports the National Bank is expected to hold interest rates unchanged because lower energy costs reduce concerns about a return of inflation pressures, linking Middle East risk directly to European monetary policy expectations. What to watch next is whether the ceasefire’s fault lines widen into measurable operational breakdowns—such as renewed incidents that raise shipping or energy-risk premia. Traders should monitor the dollar’s direction and volatility around ceasefire headlines, plus any rebound in energy costs that would quickly reintroduce inflation risk. In Poland, the key trigger is whether disinflation from lower energy prices persists long enough to keep the inflation outlook contained, supporting a hold rather than a pivot. For escalation or de-escalation timing, the immediate horizon is the next set of ceasefire compliance signals over coming days, with market sensitivity likely to remain high until durability is proven beyond the initial two-week framing.

Geopolitical Implications

• 01

  The US seeks near-term stabilization, but Iran’s retained maritime leverage limits how far outcomes can be locked in.

• 02

  Trump’s victory narrative may reduce diplomatic flexibility and increase the political cost of any ceasefire breakdown.

• 03

  Energy-cost transmission links Middle East diplomacy outcomes to European monetary policy and rate expectations.

Key Signals

• —Ceasefire compliance indicators and any incidents that lift shipping/energy-risk premia.
• —Dollar volatility and direction as markets reprice durability.
• —Sustained energy-cost disinflation supporting Poland’s rate-hold case.
• —Whether Asia bond issuance momentum persists or reverses quickly.