US strikes Iran again as Trump signals a deal is still “possible” — and threatens Hormuz tolls

The United States launched a fresh salvo of strikes against Iran in the early hours of Tuesday, continuing what multiple outlets describe as a third consecutive night of attacks. US Central Command attributed the latest wave to direction from the Commander in Chief, and Russian-language reporting says President Donald Trump notified the US Congress that the country is again in a state of war with Iran. Separate coverage notes US military aircraft activity over the Persian Gulf, including a Boeing KC-135R Stratotanker sighting reported by regional air-traffic sources. Meanwhile, Trump publicly framed the pressure campaign as compatible with a potential deal, even as he vowed to hit Iran “hard” and floated new economic leverage tied to the Strait of Hormuz. Strategically, the cluster points to an escalation-management strategy: kinetic pressure against Iran paired with political signaling that negotiations remain open. The US move to inform Congress is also a governance and legal posture shift that can expand the administration’s room to use force for an additional 60 days without further legislative approval, potentially hardening Washington’s negotiating stance. At the same time, the regional spillover risk is rising because Iran-backed Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia reportedly resumed after a long informal calm, with missile fire described as the first claimed Houthi strikes against Saudi Arabia since an informal truce began in March 2022. This widens the conflict geography from bilateral US-Iran dynamics to a broader Red Sea–Gulf security contest where deterrence, proxy coordination, and maritime economics all interact. Market implications are immediate and centered on maritime risk pricing and energy logistics. Trump’s stated intention to impose transit fees on Strait of Hormuz shipping—reported as a 20% toll in one account—would likely raise insurance premia, freight costs, and near-term expectations for higher delivered oil and refined-product prices, especially for routes transiting the Gulf. Even without confirmed implementation details, the signaling effect can move benchmarks tied to Middle East supply risk, with crude-linked instruments and shipping-sensitive exposures likely to reprice. If Houthi missile activity against Saudi targets intensifies, additional risk premium could spread to Red Sea and Gulf-adjacent shipping lanes, pressuring container and tanker rates and increasing volatility in energy-related FX and credit spreads for trade-exposed issuers. What to watch next is whether the US strikes remain confined to specific military objectives or broaden into strikes that materially disrupt Iranian regional capabilities, and whether Congress-related legal steps translate into sustained operational tempo. A key near-term indicator is continued US air and maritime force posture over the Persian Gulf—such as tanker and ISR flights—paired with any public clarification from Central Command on target sets. On the economic front, traders will look for concrete policy language on Hormuz transit fees and any retaliatory or compliance signals from Iran and regional shipping stakeholders. Finally, the Houthi-to-Saudi missile pattern is a trigger: a sustained campaign would suggest proxy escalation and could force shipping reroutes, while a rapid return to restraint would indicate the US-Iran pressure-and-deal channel is working to cap wider regional spillover.

Geopolitical Implications

• 01

  The US is combining kinetic escalation with negotiation signaling, aiming to pressure Iran while preserving a diplomatic off-ramp.

• 02

  Congress notification suggests a more durable force posture, potentially reducing the likelihood of rapid de-escalation absent a deal or restraint signals.

• 03

  Proxy dynamics are reactivating: renewed Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabia could widen the theater and complicate any bilateral bargaining.

• 04

  Maritime economic coercion around Hormuz could reshape regional shipping behavior and increase incentives for Iran and proxies to target logistics and deterrence credibility.

Key Signals

• —Central Command updates on target categories and whether strikes expand from military to infrastructure-adjacent capabilities.
• —US tanker/ISR flight frequency over the Persian Gulf and any visible carrier or naval posture changes.
• —Official clarification or implementation steps for Strait of Hormuz transit fees and responses from Iran, shipping insurers, and major carriers.
• —Whether Houthi missile attacks on Saudi Arabia persist, broaden to additional targets, or trigger Saudi countermeasures.