Strait of Hormuz Crisis: Tanker and LPG Traffic Returns in Chaos as Oil Flows and Supply Chains Rewire

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to most commercial shipping due to the Iran war, but recent tracking shows intermittent movement: an Iraqi crude supertanker transited the strait, Indian-flagged LPG carriers are also moving through, and “zombie tankers” have been observed passing amid heavy signal interference. The pattern points to adaptive routing and degraded maritime transparency rather than a return to normal commerce. The disruption is rippling beyond crude. Saudi Arabia is cutting April crude supply to Asia for a second month, while the crisis is expected to affect downstream supply chains such as plastics and food—benefiting Beijing and Moscow while raising costs and exposure for US-linked markets. With tens of thousands of seafarers reportedly trapped in the Gulf, operational and financial risks are likely to keep volatility elevated in energy and shipping-linked assets.

Geopolitical Implications

• 01

  The crisis accelerates geopolitical reallocation of energy and industrial inputs, potentially strengthening China and Russia’s relative position while increasing exposure for US-linked markets.

• 02

  Degraded maritime security (signal interference, vessel misrepresentation) raises miscalculation risk in a corridor central to global energy trade.

• 03

  Regional exporters are forced into supply re-optimization, altering bargaining power and customer relationships across Asia.

Key Signals

• —Confirm whether additional crude/LPG transits persist or stop abruptly.
• —Monitor AIS/signal anomalies and the frequency of “zombie tanker” patterns.
• —Watch for further Saudi and other exporters’ volume adjustments for Asia.
• —Track insurance premiums and rerouting behavior (freight spreads, longer voyage times).