BRICS pushes back on unilateral sanctions—while Europe debates lifting USM founder bans

BRICS countries used the outcome of their summit to challenge unilateral sanctions, arguing that such measures erode international law and the UN Charter’s principles. The declaration signals a coordinated diplomatic line rather than a single-country protest, with BRICS framing sanctions as a legitimacy problem for the global order. In parallel, France—after Slovakia—called for removing sanctions on Alisher Usmanov, the founder of the USM holding group, according to European diplomatic reporting. The French position reportedly disappointed other EU members, highlighting internal friction over how far the bloc should go in revising restrictive measures. Strategically, the cluster shows two competing narratives: BRICS is trying to delegitimize sanctions as a tool of coercion, while parts of the EU are testing whether selective de-listing can be reconciled with broader enforcement goals. BRICS’ cautious stance on de-dollarisation—discussing payments rather than a shared currency—suggests the group wants influence over settlement rails without triggering immediate financial-system backlash. This creates a power dynamic where BRICS seeks to expand optionality for trade and finance, while the EU faces a cohesion test between member states that favor tightening versus those pushing for targeted relief. The immediate beneficiaries are likely sanctioned business networks and states seeking more maneuvering room, while the losers are the most sanctions-reliant coalitions that depend on unanimity and deterrence effects. Market implications center on sanctions risk premia, cross-border settlement expectations, and the political discount applied to compliance-heavy sectors. If EU members move toward lifting sanctions on high-profile figures like Usmanov, it can reduce legal and counterparty risk for investors with exposure to Russian-linked assets and related industrial supply chains, potentially supporting sentiment in metals, telecom infrastructure, and diversified holding structures. On the BRICS side, “payments not a common currency” points to incremental changes in transaction behavior that may affect demand for USD liquidity and correspondent banking services, but without a sudden currency shock. For traders, the near-term sensitivity is likely to show up in FX and rates expectations around USD funding stress, plus credit spreads for entities perceived as sanctions-adjacent; the direction is modestly risk-on for de-listed names, with broader macro effects remaining limited. What to watch next is whether BRICS converts summit language into concrete mechanisms—such as expanded settlement arrangements, payment-system interoperability, or formal proposals—rather than staying at the declaratory level. On the EU track, the key trigger is whether France’s call to lift sanctions on Usmanov gains traction in the Council and whether other member states publicly align or resist, which would determine the speed of any de-listing. For de-dollarisation, the escalation/de-escalation signal is whether finance-track talks move from payments coordination toward any currency-linked architecture. Timeline-wise, the next decision points are likely to cluster around EU sanctions review cycles and follow-on BRICS finance-track meetings, with escalation risk rising if either side frames the other’s position as undermining sovereignty or UN legitimacy.

Geopolitical Implications

• 01

  BRICS is building a diplomatic coalition narrative that could weaken sanctions leverage globally.

• 02

  EU internal divisions over targeted relief vs unified enforcement may affect future sanctions credibility.

• 03

  Payments-focused de-dollarisation suggests gradual settlement diversification rather than an abrupt USD break.

Key Signals

• —EU Council momentum on any formal Usmanov de-listing proposal.
• —BRICS follow-on outputs that operationalize payments/settlement arrangements.
• —Public statements from EU capitals on whether sanctions relief undermines enforcement strategy.
• —Market reaction in USD funding stress and sanctions-risk credit spreads.