Prediction markets under scrutiny as Polymarket and Kalshi face insider-trading and sports-betting curbs

Polymarket has implemented new insider-trading rules after regulatory and media scrutiny over suspected manipulation in prediction markets. The move follows broader political attention on how these platforms operate, particularly around information asymmetry and market integrity. Separately, U.S. legislative efforts are gaining momentum to curb prediction markets—specifically targeting Kalshi and Polymarket in ways that could restrict sports-related gambling. Market coverage indicates that a large share of Kalshi’s recent revenue has been tied to sports, raising the risk of revenue disruption and heightened compliance costs for the sector.

Geopolitical Implications

• 01

  Primarily a U.S. regulatory and market-structure development that can reshape competition in fintech and sports-gambling-adjacent products.

Key Signals

• —Track the bill’s progress and any explicit definitions that determine whether sports products are banned or reclassified.
• —Monitor further compliance changes by Polymarket/Kalshi and any regulator enforcement actions.