Russia doubles down on de-dollarization—while BRICS momentum threatens G7 influence

On September 15, 2026, Russian Presidential Executive Office Deputy Chief of Staff Maxim Oreshkin told TASS that only about 15% of Russia’s trade is conducted in dollars and euros, framing sanctions pressure as a catalyst for a “new track” in economic policy. In the same news cluster, the Bank of Russia set the dollar exchange rate at 84.24 rubles for September 16, while also lowering the official euro rate to 97.3012 rubles. These moves land alongside a separate TASS claim that BRICS is driving more than half of global growth, with China leading by a wide margin and India rising to third place, while Russia and Japan share fourth and fifth. Separately, an ECFR analysis highlights a “warming” New Delhi–Beijing dynamic ahead of the BRICS summit, suggesting diplomatic room for India and China to cooperate even amid broader strategic competition. Geopolitically, the thread ties together sanctions adaptation, currency strategy, and bloc-building. Oreshkin’s de-dollarization narrative is designed to signal resilience to Western financial pressure and to justify deeper trade settlement diversification, potentially reducing the leverage of dollar- and euro-based payment systems. The BRICS growth argument—paired with the claim that BRICS outpaces G7 influence—functions as an ideological and economic counterweight to Western-led governance and market norms. Meanwhile, the ECFR focus on India–China warming matters because it can lower friction inside BRICS, making the bloc more coherent for joint messaging on trade, development finance, and global rule-setting. The combined effect is a competitive multipolar posture: Russia seeks financial autonomy, while India and China’s improved bilateral climate could help BRICS convert economic momentum into diplomatic bargaining power. Market and economic implications are immediate for FX and longer-term for trade settlement infrastructure. The Bank of Russia’s published rates—84.24 RUB per USD and 97.3012 RUB per EUR—signal ongoing management of currency expectations and can influence corporate hedging costs, import pricing, and sovereign risk premia tied to FX volatility. If Russia’s trade is indeed only ~15% in dollars and euros, the marginal demand for USD/EUR in Russian trade settlement could be structurally lower than in a conventional model, potentially supporting RUB stability relative to scenarios of heavy USD invoicing. At the same time, BRICS-driven growth narratives can affect investor positioning toward China, India, and Russia-linked exposure, with spillovers into EM FX baskets and commodity demand expectations. The direction of impact is therefore twofold: near-term FX sensitivity around official rate setting, and medium-term repricing of growth leadership and trade corridors toward non-Western blocs. What to watch next is whether Russia’s “new track” translates into measurable shifts in payment rails, invoicing currency shares, and counterparties’ settlement behavior. Key indicators include changes in Russia’s reported trade currency composition, any further Bank of Russia rate adjustments, and signals from major counterparties on willingness to expand local-currency settlement. For BRICS cohesion, monitor India–China diplomatic deliverables around the summit—especially any agreements that reduce bilateral friction in trade and connectivity. A practical trigger for escalation would be renewed sanctions tightening or restrictions that target alternative settlement channels, which could force Russia back toward more expensive hedging or accelerate currency fragmentation. Conversely, de-escalation would look like smoother India–China coordination and expanded BRICS-linked development financing announcements that reinforce the bloc’s economic narrative.

Geopolitical Implications

• 01

  Russia is using currency diversification messaging to reduce Western financial leverage.

• 02

  BRICS growth claims are aimed at challenging G7 influence and legitimacy.

• 03

  Improved India–China relations could strengthen BRICS internal alignment and bargaining power.

• 04

  FX management and trade-currency claims may reshape counterparties’ hedging and investment decisions.

Key Signals

• —Next Bank of Russia reference-rate changes and implied RUB volatility.
• —Evidence of shifts in Russia’s trade invoicing/settlement currency shares beyond USD/EUR.
• —India–China diplomatic deliverables around the BRICS summit.
• —Sanctions updates targeting local-currency settlement or payment intermediaries.