US warns Trump: Pakistan’s top general may be playing both sides as Hormuz tension spikes

US intelligence agencies warned that Pakistan’s Field Marshal Asim Munir is “playing a double game” amid efforts to resolve the Middle East situation, according to a report carried by TASS on April 20, 2026. In parallel, multiple outlets say President Trump spoke by phone with Munir and indicated he would consider the general’s advice that a U.S. Strait of Hormuz blockade could become a hurdle to peace talks with Iran. The reporting frames Munir as a key interlocutor whose posture could influence whether Washington’s pressure strategy helps or obstructs negotiations. Taken together, the episode elevates the risk that Pakistan’s military leadership is hedging between U.S. demands and regional de-escalation channels. Strategically, the cluster centers on the Strait of Hormuz as the choke point for global energy flows and on the diplomatic effort to end the Iran war. China’s Xi Jinping, in calls with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, urged “normal passage” through Hormuz and called for an immediate ceasefire, signaling Beijing’s push to shape outcomes while keeping shipping lanes open. Iran responded with hardline messaging, warning it cannot guarantee safe passage if the U.S. restricts Tehran’s oil exports, while Iran also insists it will never cede control of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Iran-aligned Houthis threatened to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, raising the prospect of a broader maritime disruption that would complicate any ceasefire architecture. Market implications are immediate because the threats target the two most consequential maritime corridors for Middle East crude and refined products: Hormuz for Gulf exports and Bab el-Mandeb for Red Sea routing. Any credible restriction on Hormuz transit or safe passage assurances typically lifts risk premia in oil and shipping insurance, with knock-on effects for tanker rates and regional refining margins. The direction of impact is upward for crude benchmarks and freight costs, with the magnitude depending on whether the weekend’s “turbulent” escalation translates into operational disruptions rather than rhetoric. Investors should also expect heightened volatility in energy-linked FX and rates-sensitive assets as the probability of supply interruptions rises and negotiation timelines lengthen. What to watch next is whether Washington, Tehran, and Riyadh translate Xi’s calls for ceasefire and “full Hormuz transit” into verifiable steps, such as deconfliction channels and explicit commitments on shipping safety. The key trigger is Iran’s response to any U.S. blockade posture and whether the U.S. modifies enforcement intensity in a way that reduces Tehran’s incentive to threaten passage. On the maritime flank, monitor signals from Sana’a and Houthi leadership regarding Bab el-Mandeb operational readiness, including any movement toward closure or escalation of interdiction threats. A practical escalation/de-escalation timeline hinges on near-term diplomatic follow-ups after the phone calls, plus any observable changes in tanker routing, insurance pricing, and naval activity around Hormuz and the Red Sea.

Geopolitical Implications

• 01

  Pakistan’s military leadership is positioned as a potential swing factor in whether U.S. coercive leverage accelerates or derails Iran ceasefire talks.

• 02

  China’s insistence on “normal passage” through Hormuz signals Beijing’s intent to protect trade routes and gain diplomatic leverage as the Iran war narrative evolves.

• 03

  Iran’s refusal to guarantee safe passage under blockade conditions raises the probability of maritime incidents that could force escalation or harden negotiating positions.

• 04

  A potential Red Sea corridor disruption (Bab el-Mandeb) would complicate any ceasefire deal by introducing additional actors and operational constraints.

Key Signals

• —Any U.S. adjustment to enforcement intensity or public messaging around a Hormuz blockade posture.
• —Iranian operational signals: naval posture changes, statements by senior officials, or changes in tanker safety guidance.
• —Houthi indicators from Sana’a: readiness signals, maritime advisories, or evidence of interdiction activity near Bab el-Mandeb.
• —Shipping and insurance market moves: tanker rerouting, insurance premium spikes, and changes in transit volumes through Hormuz and the Red Sea.