Intelrift Geoeconomic Index· Edition 1 · Q4 2026
Armenia
38.3
Comparable countries
- GeorgiaIGE 42.7 · distance 4.6
- JordanIGE 42.1 · distance 4.8
- BulgariaIGE 36.4 · distance 6.6
- North MacedoniaIGE 38.3 · distance 8.3
Nearest in the five-dimensional sub-index space (euclidean distance over shared dimensions).
What would move the score
- Chokepoints±2.5 points
- Sanctions±2.5 points
- Commodity concentration±2.0 points
- Institutional fragility±1.5 points
- Sovereign stress±1.5 points
Change in the IGE if one sub-index moved by 10 points, with this country's effective weights.
Sub-indices against the regional and global mean
CountryRegional meanGlobal mean
Source: Intelrift, IGE. Simple means of covered countries.Data through 19 October 2026
History by edition
Hollow points are retrospectives: past years computed with the current method, without newsroom events and with the current snapshot of the sanctions lists.
Source: Intelrift, IGEData through 19 October 2026
Key factors
What drives the score
- Landlocked (transit dependence): yes (2026), risk percentile 100.source
- Reserves in months of imports: 3.3 months (2025), risk percentile 83.source
- Political and security events (90 days): 75.2 (2026), risk percentile 75.source
- Current account balance: -8.7 % of GDP (2025), risk percentile 69.source
Each factor comes from a sourced, dated input; the percentile says where the country sits among those covered.
How it is calculated
Weights, coverage and provenance
5 of 5 sub-indices available · ige-v1
Provenance hash
SHA-256 of the canonical JSON of the inputs, their sources and periods, the winsorisation bounds and the weights. Same inputs, same hash.
Sub-index inputs
Chokepoints · 53.4
How much of the country's GDP depends on six maritime passages (Hormuz, Suez, Malacca, Bab el-Mandeb, Panama, Bosphorus) staying open, plus its imported-energy dependence, logistics performance and whether it is landlocked.
| Exposure to the main chokepoint (2025) | 14.1 % of GDP · percentile 24 |
| Total chokepoint exposure (2025) | 18.6 % of GDP · percentile 13 |
| Net energy import dependence (2024) | 76.2 % · percentile 81 |
| Fuel share of imports (2025) | 8.9 % · percentile 23 |
| Landlocked (transit dependence) (2026) | yes · percentile 100 |
| Logistics performance (LPI) (2022) | 2.5 · percentile 79 |
Sanctions · 34.7
Whether the jurisdiction is under a sanctions regime (and how intense), how many people and entities linked to the country appear on the OFAC, EU, UN and UK lists, how many on US export-control lists, and how much it trades with sanctioned partners.
| Jurisdiction-level sanctions regime | no regime · percentile 0 |
| Designations linked to the country (2026) | 16 · percentile 44 |
| Designations under country programmes (2026) | 0 · percentile 0 |
| Entities under US export controls (2026) | 14 · percentile 65 |
| Exposure to sanctioned partners (2023) | 42.1 · percentile 64 |
Commodity concentration · 15.2
Concentration of exports and imports by product group (Herfindahl index), fuel and food share of imports, natural resource rents over GDP and terms-of-trade volatility.
| Export concentration (HHI) (2025) | 0.3 · percentile 5 |
| Import concentration (HHI) (2025) | 0.37 · percentile 10 |
| Fuel and food share of imports (2025) | 22.6 % · percentile 21 |
| Natural resource rents (2021) | 7.1 % of GDP · percentile 24 |
| Terms-of-trade volatility (2024) | 6.8 % · percentile 17 |
Institutional fragility · 42.6
Rule of law, political stability, government effectiveness and control of corruption (WGI), the INFORM index, battle deaths, homicides and new conflict displacements per capita, and the quarter's political and security events recorded by Intelrift.
| Rule of law (WGI) (2025) | 54.3 · percentile 58 |
| Political stability and absence of violence (WGI) (2025) | 58 · percentile 55 |
| Government effectiveness (WGI) (2025) | 47.5 · percentile 60 |
| Control of corruption (WGI) (2025) | 50.3 · percentile 51 |
| INFORM risk index (2026) | 3.2 · percentile 24 |
| Battle-related deaths per 100,000 people (2025) | 0.65 · percentile 20 |
| Intentional homicides per 100,000 people (2023) | 2.21 · percentile 6 |
| New conflict displacements per 1,000 people (2025) | 2.46 · percentile 35 |
| Political and security events (90 days) (2026) | 75.2 · percentile 75 |
| Terror and narco incidents (90 days) (2026) | insufficient data |
Sovereign stress · 45.8
Reserves in months of imports, current account balance, inflation, depreciation against the dollar, external debt and its service, short-term debt over reserves, broad money over reserves, interest over revenue and Intelrift's daily country risk.
| Reserves in months of imports (2025) | 3.3 months · percentile 83 |
| Current account balance (2025) | -8.7 % of GDP · percentile 69 |
| Annual inflation (2025) | 3.3 % · percentile 13 |
| Annual depreciation against the dollar (2025) | -1.5 % · percentile 28 |
| External debt to GNI (2024) | 66 % · percentile 52 |
| Debt service to exports (2024) | 9.2 % · percentile 16 |
| Short-term debt to reserves (2024) | 94.9 % · percentile 75 |
| Broad money to reserves (2025) | 3.5× · percentile 20 |
| Interest payments to revenue (2024) | 12.6 % · percentile 45 |
| Intelrift daily country risk (2026) | 32 · percentile 58 |