Intelrift Geoeconomic Index · For journalists · Edition 1 · Q4 2026
Usage guide and ready-to-publish figures
What the index is, what it is not, how to cite it and what to download. The figures on this page are regenerated with every edition from the same public data.
In one sentence
The Intelrift Geoeconomic Index (IGE) is a public, quarterly index scoring each country's structural geoeconomic risk from 0 to 100: the higher the score, the more exposed the country is to maritime route closures, sanctions, dependence on a few commodities, institutional fragility and sovereign stress. It is built from open data (World Bank, official sanctions lists, INFORM) and Intelrift's own data; every figure carries a provenance hash and published editions are never modified.
What it is not
- It is not a crisis forecast nor investment advice.
- It is not a credit rating: it does not measure the probability of default.
- It does not rank countries by general "dangerousness": it measures economic exposure to geopolitical shocks.
Figures of the edition · Published on 19 October 2026
No coverage: North Korea, Liechtenstein, Monaco, Taiwan, Vatican City
Simple mean 34.9 · Median 34.0
share of covered GDP in countries scoring 50 or more
49 with more than 10% of GDP exposed
Verifiable headlines
- Iran is the country with the highest geoeconomic risk in the world (63.1 out of 100), according to the Intelrift Geoeconomic Index, Q4 2026.
- The five most exposed countries are Iran, Iraq, Libya, Venezuela, Lebanon.
- Weighted by GDP, world geoeconomic risk stands at 32.6 points; 1.1 % of covered GDP sits in countries at high or severe risk.
- Malacca is the chokepoint with the most GDP at stake: 6.6 % of covered GDP transits it and 49 countries have more than 10% of their economy exposed, led by United Arab Emirates (82.7% of GDP).
- Asia is the region with the highest mean risk (40.5), led by Iran (63.1) with Bhutan at the other end (28.7).
- Geoeconomic risk is not only a poor-country story: 7 high-income economies sit in the top third of the ranking, among them Russia, Kuwait, Panama.
- Laos is the economy most exposed to its trade partners' sanctions (51.1 out of 100 in indirect exposure).
- For 71 of the 192 covered countries, the sub-index that weighs most in their score is chokepoints.
- The biggest riser on the previous edition is Kosovo (+6.3 points); the biggest faller, Lesotho (−2.2).
Each headline is generated from the edition's data; the figure can be checked in the table, the country page or the API.
How to read a score
0–100
Higher means more risk. 50 or more means being in the most exposed fifth of the world in this edition.
Five sub-indices
Chokepoints (25%), Sanctions (25%), Commodities (20%), Institutional fragility (15%), Sovereign stress (15%). A country needs at least three to be scored.
Change
The "Chg." column compares with the previous published edition. A first edition has no change.
Insufficient data
When a sub-index is missing it is said so; it is never estimated. Weights are redistributed over the available sub-indices.
It measures exposure, not prediction.
The IGE measures how much structural damage an economy would suffer from a route closure, tighter sanctions, a swing in its commodities, an institutional crisis or an episode of sovereign stress. It does not say when anything will happen.
The scale is relative to the edition.
Each input is placed between the 5th and 95th percentiles of countries with data and scaled to 0–100. A 70 means being among the most exposed countries in the world in this edition, not 70% of anything.
What is missing is visible.
When a country lacks data for a sub-index it shows as "insufficient data" and the index is computed from the others with renormalised weights. Nothing is filled with a zero or an estimate.
How to cite
Short citation
Full citation
When citing a specific figure, name the country and the edition. The provenance hash on the country page lets anyone check that the figure has not changed.
Downloads
- Edition report in PDF
in preparationPDF in preparation - Full table in CSV (one row per country)
/api/v1/geo-index?format=csvOpen - Full edition in JSON (public API, no key)
/api/v1/geo-indexOpen - One country in JSON (input breakdown, sources and hash)
/api/v1/geo-index/countries/{code}Open - Social image per country (1200 × 630, PNG)
/api/geo-index/og/{code}?locale=enOpen - Full methodology
/en/index-geoeconomico/metodologiaOpen - Source licences
docs/DATA_LICENSES.mdOpen
Sub-index glossary
Chokepoints · 25 %
- What it measures
- How much of the country's GDP depends on six maritime passages (Hormuz, Suez, Malacca, Bab el-Mandeb, Panama, Bosphorus) staying open, plus its imported-energy dependence, logistics performance and whether it is landlocked.
- Why it matters
- A closure or a freight spike hits open economies whose trade runs through a single strait first.
- Example
- Singapore and the Gulf states score high because of Malacca and Hormuz; a landlocked European economy scores low even if it trades a lot.
Sanctions · 25 %
- What it measures
- Whether the jurisdiction is under a sanctions regime (and how intense), how many people and entities linked to the country appear on the OFAC, EU, UN and UK lists, how many on US export-control lists, and how much it trades with sanctioned partners.
- Why it matters
- Sanctions cut off financing, technology and markets; contagion arrives through trade partners.
- Example
- Russia and Iran score high on regime and designations; the UAE, Hong Kong or Türkiye rise on linked designations and export controls without being sanctioned.
Commodity concentration · 20 %
- What it measures
- Concentration of exports and imports by product group (Herfindahl index), fuel and food share of imports, natural resource rents over GDP and terms-of-trade volatility.
- Why it matters
- A country living off one or two products, or importing most of its energy and food, depends on prices it does not control.
- Example
- Oil exporters and food-importing islands score high; diversified manufacturing economies, low.
Institutional fragility · 15 %
- What it measures
- Rule of law, political stability, government effectiveness and control of corruption (WGI), the INFORM index, battle deaths, homicides and new conflict displacements per capita, and the quarter's political and security events recorded by Intelrift.
- Why it matters
- Institutional fragility turns an external shock into a domestic crisis.
- Example
- Countries in active conflict or with weak institutions score high; consolidated democracies, low.
Sovereign stress · 15 %
- What it measures
- Reserves in months of imports, current account balance, inflation, depreciation against the dollar, external debt and its service, short-term debt over reserves, broad money over reserves, interest over revenue and Intelrift's daily country risk.
- Why it matters
- Without reserves or fiscal room, a price or funding shock becomes a balance-of-payments crisis.
- Example
- Economies with high inflation, a falling currency and scarce reserves score high; surplus exporters with ample reserves, low.
Frequently asked questions
How often is it published?
One edition per calendar quarter. The data cut-off and the publication date are shown in the header of each edition.
Why can a rich country score high?
Because the index measures exposure, not ability to pay. An open economy that depends on one chokepoint or on energy imports scores high on those sub-indices even with strong institutions.
Can editions be compared?
Yes, within the same method version. A method change is announced in the changelog and applied from the next edition; earlier ones are not recomputed.
Where does the data come from?
World Bank (WDI, WGI, IDS), official sanctions lists (OFAC, EU, UN, UK), the US Consolidated Screening List, INFORM Risk (JRC), the UN LLDC list and Intelrift's own data. Every source and its licence is listed in the methodology.
Why no bond spreads or election calendar?
No source with an open licence for commercial use exists. Rather than estimate them, the index declares them unavailable.
Can I reproduce a figure?
Yes. The API returns every raw input with its source, period and normalisation bounds; recomputing with the published method yields the same hash.
Can I reuse the data?
IGE figures are published with attribution to Intelrift. Underlying data keep each source's licence (CC BY 4.0, public domain or reuse with attribution).
Contact
For interviews, country readings or early access to the next edition, write to [email protected] or request a call.