Geoeconomic Index · quarterly · public

GeoeconomicIndex.

Name: Intelrift Geoeconomic Index — Edition 1 · Q4 2026
Creator: Intelrift
Published: 2026-10-19T15:10:33.977Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Edition 1 · Q4 2026Published on 19 October 2026Data through 19 October 2026Scale 0–100 · higher means more risk

How much geoeconomic risk each economy carries: exposure to route closures, sanctions, dependence on a few commodities, institutional fragility and stress in its sovereign markets. Transparent, reproducible and falsifiable.

Three findings of the edition

Iran leads the edition with 63.1 points; Sanctions accounts for 39% of its score.
The biggest riser is Kosovo: +6.3 points on the previous edition, driven by sanctions.
Malacca is the main chokepoint for 69 countries; 23 of them have more than 10% of GDP exposed to its closure.

Geoeconomic risk, country by country

Source: Intelrift, IGEData through 19 October 2026

Hover to see the score. Click to open the country page.

Ranking

Every country, sortable

192 / 197


1	Iran	63.1	+0.5	48	99	47	66	47
2	Iraq	59.8	+1.2	49	78	78	66	18
3	Libya	58.4	+0.3	44	64	78	69	36
4	Venezuela	55.9	−1.3	17	68	55	84	73
5	Lebanon	55.7	−0.1	64	63	24	79	50
6	South Sudan	55.4	−1.3	27	53	—	78	85
7	Syria	54.1	+1.2	47	80	23	83	34
8	Myanmar (Burma)	53.7	+1.4	43	79	31	81	34
9	Afghanistan	53.6	+1.0	59	78	29	69	21
10	Eritrea	52.7	+4.0	70	29	53	65	52
11	Congo - Kinshasa	52.1	+0.8	36	56	54	91	33
12	Ukraine	52.1	+1.2	50	57	33	70	54
13	Sudan	51.8	+0.2	27	51	35	97	72
14	Palestinian Territories	50.1	+3.2	—	27	33	78	83
15	Moldova	49.1	+2.1	76	44	29	48	41
16	Cuba	48.8	−1.2	45	67	26	56	—
17	Mali	48.8	−1.5	55	29	56	82	29
18	Somalia	48.8	+0.3	38	51	42	97	24
19	Yemen	48.8	−0.3	41	42	42	77	54
20	Belarus	48.7	−2.1	48	81	13	54	40
21	Russia	48.5	+0.4	18	91	44	61	22
22	Central African Republic	48.4	−1.0	54	42	42	87	21
23	Burkina Faso	46.2	+0.4	64	10	62	70	32
24	Turkmenistan	45.6	+4.3	38	26	73	55	—
25	Angola	45.5	+3.4	31	23	79	53	55
26	Pakistan	44.9	+1.9	39	52	29	61	51
27	Tunisia	44.3	+1.2	51	43	31	48	50
28	Ethiopia	44.0	+3.5	50	22	40	69	52
29	Haiti	43.7	+0.9	27	43	30	88	46
30	Chad	43.6	+2.9	39	20	68	74	28
31	Zambia	43.5	+1.2	53	8	53	59	60
32	Kuwait	43.3	+3.3	40	31	78	39	26
33	Mongolia	43.2	+4.3	47	26	56	42	51
34	Georgia	42.7	+2.9	59	39	22	44	50
35	Nigeria	42.7	+2.7	31	22	59	68	50
36	Kyrgyzstan	42.4	+2.6	48	38	33	55	40
37	Kazakhstan	42.3	+2.5	32	38	56	40	52
38	Türkiye	42.2	+1.3	28	57	21	47	64
39	Jordan	42.1	+3.1	61	37	23	41	46
40	Panama	41.5	+2.0	41	37	26	52	60
41	Burundi	41.3	−0.7	65	8	35	55	53
42	Nicaragua	41.3	−2.1	39	45	29	58	38
43	Guinea	40.3	+0.2	36	31	33	75	36
44	Oman	40.3	+1.7	42	29	58	34	40
45	Djibouti	40.1	−0.9	58	7	30	69	52
46	Gambia	39.8	+2.1	39	32	42	54	37
47	Azerbaijan	39.6	+3.0	38	28	59	48	27
48	Equatorial Guinea	39.5	−0.1	22	18	89	64	14
49	Mexico	39.5	+1.2	20	44	36	65	44
50	Malaysia	39.4	+2.7	44	48	31	29	38
51	Qatar	39.3	+3.7	40	29	70	27	28
52	Guinea-Bissau	39.2	−1.3	27	32	44	64	40
53	Uzbekistan	39.2	+2.7	42	39	37	46	32
54	Liberia	39.1	−0.2	46	16	48	54	40
55	Niger	39.1	+1.4	40	19	43	73	33
56	Congo - Brazzaville	39.0	+1.4	30	16	71	51	37
57	Laos	39.0	+3.9	43	31	31	50	46
58	Singapore	39.0	+3.6	58	53	31	12	24
59	Zimbabwe	38.8	−0.9	45	16	27	59	61
60	Guyana	38.7	+1.4	37	16	65	53	29
61	Bolivia	38.5	+1.4	47	15	31	55	56
62	Egypt	38.5	+2.6	33	34	22	48	68
63	Armenia	38.3	+2.1	53	35	15	43	46
64	North Macedonia	38.3	+1.5	59	29	28	38	36
65	Cambodia	38.1	+4.8	42	36	33	52	27
66	Mauritania	38.1	+2.7	53	22	38	51	29
67	Maldives	38.1	+1.8	42	33	43	33	39
68	Vietnam	37.8	+3.6	40	34	34	44	40
69	Malawi	37.6	−0.1	49	1	45	48	61
70	India	37.1	+1.9	35	45	24	42	40
71	Papua New Guinea	36.9	+4.9	27	16	58	57	39
72	Mozambique	36.7	+1.8	31	13	42	60	56
73	Bangladesh	36.6	+3.5	31	23	40	50	51
74	Saudi Arabia	36.5	+3.4	26	39	54	34	28
75	Bulgaria	36.4	+1.8	50	38	16	43	32
76	Bahrain	36.3	+1.9	38	26	35	38	52
77	Kosovo	36.3	+6.3	—	33	—	49	30
78	United Arab Emirates	36.1	+1.8	35	52	32	25	30
79	Honduras	36.1	−0.1	40	22	27	67	35
80	Dominican Republic	36.0	+1.6	41	22	34	45	44
81	Paraguay	36.0	−0.6	39	18	46	47	37
82	Cyprus	35.8	+2.1	47	44	25	33	22
83	Morocco	35.6	+1.8	44	25	30	51	31
84	Algeria	35.5	+2.7	18	26	73	43	22
85	Seychelles	35.5	+0.3	63	19	36	17	35
86	Jamaica	35.4	+0.7	46	17	26	52	46
87	El Salvador	35.4	+0.2	38	13	29	55	56
88	Philippines	35.3	+3.9	26	38	34	49	35
89	Brunei	35.0	+4.9	40	20	75	16	17
90	Suriname	34.9	+0.7	25	15	55	36	58
91	Sri Lanka	34.8	+3.0	37	22	27	43	54
92	Timor-Leste	34.6	+5.1	22	20	68	45	26
93	Thailand	34.4	+3.6	35	43	26	43	22
94	Bosnia & Herzegovina	34.2	+1.1	31	39	25	49	30
95	Gabon	34.2	+2.0	29	13	51	59	33
96	Sierra Leone	34.1	+3.9	26	25	32	52	48
97	China	33.9	+0.5	21	56	28	38	23
98	Colombia	33.8	+1.4	15	30	32	62	45
99	Tajikistan	33.8	+3.5	43	30	26	50	19
100	Uganda	33.8	+0.4	47	19	18	53	40
101	Senegal	33.7	+0.7	50	11	22	34	60
102	Serbia	33.6	+1.5	38	43	7	49	31
103	Ecuador	33.4	+2.4	26	25	30	57	39
104	South Korea	33.4	+4.5	37	33	33	23	40
105	Montenegro	33.3	+3.0	30	29	24	32	59
106	Brazil	33.2	+2.8	14	33	30	53	50
107	Guatemala	33.1	+0.2	31	27	28	63	24
108	Chile	33.0	+3.4	31	25	39	32	43
109	Cameroon	33.0	+2.7	31	16	35	66	30
110	Romania	32.9	+2.3	35	25	33	38	38
111	Indonesia	32.8	+3.5	19	44	23	40	41
112	Slovakia	32.7	+2.2	37	24	38	34	31
113	Greece	32.5	+2.7	38	35	16	39	34
114	South Africa	32.5	+0.8	17	36	20	58	43
115	Argentina	32.4	+1.6	12	27	26	47	70
116	Kenya	32.2	+1.0	29	24	23	50	45
117	Belgium	32.0	+1.9	43	36	23	23	29
118	Hungary	32.0	+2.6	35	21	32	37	40
119	Nepal	31.9	+3.9	50	11	26	54	24
120	Mauritius	31.8	+0.4	50	7	32	24	50
121	Netherlands	31.8	+2.6	45	40	23	18	22
122	Israel	31.5	+1.6	11	38	37	51	28
123	Italy	31.5	+2.4	30	34	30	33	32
124	Slovenia	31.5	+2.7	50	20	39	21	21
125	Costa Rica	31.3	+1.9	30	23	33	39	38
126	Malta	31.1	+1.3	39	31	36	28	15
127	Germany	30.9	+2.1	24	47	32	23	24
128	Madagascar	30.7	+2.5	37	14	22	61	29
129	Rwanda	30.7	+0.3	44	14	18	37	46
130	Belize	30.3	−1.0	21	19	45	44	32
131	Solomon Islands	30.3	+5.3	25	20	47	46	19
132	Ghana	30.1	+2.7	30	14	38	40	37
133	Comoros	30.1	−2.1	27	12	44	55	24
134	United States	30.1	+1.5	4	44	24	38	51
135	Spain	30.0	+2.1	26	37	23	32	32
136	Fiji	29.9	+4.7	36	18	26	32	43
137	Lesotho	29.9	−2.2	50	0	34	46	25
138	France	29.8	+2.1	18	41	32	27	32
139	Japan	29.8	+4.4	29	37	31	16	31
140	Trinidad & Tobago	29.8	+0.6	18	16	44	52	32
141	Côte d’Ivoire	29.7	+1.0	26	12	37	46	38
142	Peru	29.7	+3.1	22	28	33	46	25
143	Tanzania	29.7	+1.9	23	15	33	50	42
144	Albania	29.5	+2.3	29	28	26	39	29
145	Bhutan	28.7	+1.8	44	8	39	14	39
146	São Tomé & Príncipe	28.7	−0.8	34	3	50	34	30
147	United Kingdom	28.4	+1.6	19	48	14	22	38
148	Czechia	28.3	+2.5	33	23	39	19	25
149	Ireland	28.2	+2.8	27	29	42	18	21
150	Benin	27.8	+1.6	26	15	29	41	37
151	Canada	27.7	+2.4	4	43	24	20	55
152	Namibia	27.7	−0.1	35	10	17	41	46
153	Poland	27.3	+2.8	23	24	32	27	34
154	Australia	26.9	+5.5	8	32	33	16	53
155	Eswatini	26.9	−1.9	36	0	29	53	28
156	Micronesia	26.8	+3.9	31	17	43	20	21
157	Vanuatu	26.8	+4.8	15	24	37	41	23
158	Dominica	26.6	−2.1	17	9	36	33	52
159	Croatia	26.5	+3.1	32	19	23	33	28
160	Cape Verde	26.4	+1.8	20	11	49	27	30
161	Kiribati	26.3	+3.0	21	15	42	27	32
162	Botswana	26.2	+0.2	41	0	38	33	22
163	Palau	26.1	+1.2	22	15	38	25	36
164	Bahamas	25.4	−0.1	25	10	22	39	42
165	Austria	25.3	+2.3	20	32	28	19	26
166	Latvia	25.2	+2.4	24	27	19	28	30
167	Lithuania	25.1	+3.1	34	21	21	22	26
168	Portugal	25.0	+2.2	28	18	30	23	28
169	New Zealand	24.9	+4.8	16	27	28	11	48
170	Togo	24.8	+0.5	23	5	26	57	27
171	Sweden	24.5	+2.8	15	35	24	17	32
172	Norway	24.4	+3.0	10	27	48	13	26
173	St Vincent & the Grenadines	24.4	+0.7	12	11	37	39	36
174	Switzerland	24.1	+2.4	25	42	14	13	17
175	Grenada	23.8	+0.3	30	6	30	27	33
176	Antigua & Barbuda	23.5	+0.1	15	11	39	22	39
177	St Kitts & Nevis	23.1	−0.6	3	19	39	31	34
178	Luxembourg	22.9	+2.3	25	28	26	11	20
179	Estonia	22.8	+2.5	18	32	18	18	27
180	Tonga	22.8	+2.5	16	13	42	25	24
181	Finland	22.6	+2.3	17	38	17	14	23
182	Uruguay	21.8	+1.2	23	11	30	17	31
183	Denmark	21.2	+3.3	17	20	32	14	24
184	Barbados	21.0	+0.4	15	11	24	16	50
185	St Lucia	20.6	0.0	12	10	27	33	32
186	Samoa	19.2	+2.3	16	14	32	20	16
187	Iceland	17.5	+3.7	14	12	21	12	34
188	Marshall Islands	14.8	+1.1	6	25	1	31	14
189	Nauru	14.8	+2.9	3	18	19	24	15
190	Tuvalu	14.6	+3.3	4	11	—	35	18
191	Andorra	13.6	−0.3	—	0	41	7	7
192	San Marino	10.0	+3.0	—	11	—	11	8
—	North Korea	insufficient data	—	—	80	—	75	—
—	Liechtenstein	insufficient data	—	—	17	—	14	—
—	Monaco	insufficient data	—	—	6	—	16	—
—	Taiwan	insufficient data	—	—	32	—	—	—
—	Vatican City	insufficient data	—	—	0	—	—	—

Movers

Biggest risers

Kosovo36.3+6.3
Australia26.9+5.5
Solomon Islands30.3+5.3
Timor-Leste34.6+5.1
Papua New Guinea36.9+4.9

Biggest fallers

Lesotho29.9−2.2
Belarus48.7−2.1
Nicaragua41.3−2.1
Comoros30.1−2.1
Dominica26.6−2.1

Change in points against the previous published edition. (Edition 2025 · 2025)

Sub-indices

The ten most exposed countries in each sub-index

Chokepoints concentrate the risk of small, open economies

75.9

69.5

64.8

63.8

63.5

62.6

60.7

58.7

58.5

58.5

Source: Intelrift, IGE · ChokepointsData through 19 October 2026

Sanctions weigh on jurisdictions under a regime and on their partners

98.7

91.2

80.7

80.4

80.0

78.9

78.2

77.5

68.4

67.0

Source: Intelrift, IGE · SanctionsData through 19 October 2026

Commodity concentration punishes single-product exporters

89.2

78.6

78.3

78.0

77.8

74.8

73.4

72.5

70.7

70.0

Source: Intelrift, IGE · Commodity concentrationData through 19 October 2026

Institutional fragility follows political violence

97.4

97.2

90.7

88.1

Central African Republic

86.8

84.3

83.3

82.3

80.5

78.5

Source: Intelrift, IGE · Institutional fragilityData through 19 October 2026

Sovereign stress shows in reserves, inflation and the currency

South Sudan

85.0

Palestinian Territories

83.3

72.9

71.7

69.5

68.2

63.5

61.4

60.6

59.8

Source: Intelrift, IGE · Sovereign stressData through 19 October 2026

How to read the index

Three things to know before reading a figure

It measures exposure, not prediction.

The IGE measures how much structural damage an economy would suffer from a route closure, tighter sanctions, a swing in its commodities, an institutional crisis or an episode of sovereign stress. It does not say when anything will happen.

The scale is relative to the edition.

Each input is placed between the 5th and 95th percentiles of countries with data and scaled to 0–100. A 70 means being among the most exposed countries in the world in this edition, not 70% of anything.

What is missing is visible.

When a country lacks data for a sub-index it shows as "insufficient data" and the index is computed from the others with renormalised weights. Nothing is filled with a zero or an estimate.

Bands of the scaleMinimal 0–20Low 20–30Moderate 30–40Elevated 40–50High 50–60Severe 60+Bands are for reading the map and the table; the computation works with the continuous figure.

Calibration

Calibration: coming soon

Every edition leaves a public record of its scores and hash. Once there is enough history, the index's calibrated accuracy against real stress episodes will be published here.

Use the index

Download, reproduce or integrate the index

PDF in preparation

Edition 1 · Q4 2026

Read the methodology

ige-v1

API access

GET /api/v1/geo-index · CSV

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