Intelrift Geoeconomic Index · Edition analysis · Edition 1 · Q4 2026
What the cross-cut data says
Aggregate figures, comparisons by region and income level, correlations and chokepoint panels. Everything comes from the same edition and can be reproduced with the API.
The world in one figure
How much GDP sits in each band
Risk concentrates in small economies: most world GDP sits in the lower bands
| Band | countries | of covered GDP | Largest economies |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minimal (0+) | 7 | 0.0 % | Iceland, Andorra, San Marino, Samoa, Marshall Islands |
| Low (20+) | 50 | 20.1 % | Japan, United Kingdom, France, Canada, Australia |
| Moderate (30+) | 90 | 73.1 % | United States, China, Germany, India, Italy |
| Elevated (40+) | 31 | 5.6 % | Russia, Türkiye, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Nigeria |
| High (50+) | 13 | 0.8 % | Iraq, Ukraine, Venezuela, Congo - Kinshasa, Myanmar (Burma) |
| Severe (60+) | 1 | 0.3 % | Iran |
Source: Intelrift, IGE · World BankData through 19 October 2026
Regions are not homogeneous: within-region dispersion exceeds the gap between means
| Region | Countries | Mean | Median | Highest | Lowest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 47 | 40.5 | 39.0 | Iran 63.1 | Bhutan 28.7 |
| Africa | 54 | 37.9 | 37.9 | Libya 58.4 | Togo 24.8 |
| Americas | 35 | 32.8 | 33.1 | Venezuela 55.9 | St Lucia 20.6 |
| Europe | 42 | 30.0 | 29.9 | Ukraine 52.1 | San Marino 10.0 |
| Oceania | 14 | 24.4 | 26.2 | Papua New Guinea 36.9 | Tuvalu 14.6 |
Source: Intelrift, IGEData through 19 October 2026
Geoeconomic risk is not just poverty
| Group | Countries | Mean | Chokepoints | Sanctions | Commodities | Institutions | Sovereign |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low income | 24 | 43.8 | 44 | 31 | 41 | 69 | 42 |
| Lower-middle income | 47 | 36.9 | 37 | 25 | 37 | 54 | 41 |
| Upper-middle income | 59 | 35.6 | 33 | 31 | 36 | 45 | 38 |
| High income | 62 | 29.3 | 28 | 29 | 33 | 26 | 31 |
7 high-income economies sit in the top third of the ranking: Russia (48.5), Kuwait (43.3), Panama (41.5), Oman (40.3), Qatar (39.3), Singapore (39.0), Guyana (38.7).
Source: Intelrift, IGE · World Bank income groupsData through 19 October 2026
What each sub-index measures (and does not)
| Sub-index pair | r | n |
|---|---|---|
| Chokepoints · Sanctions | 0.13 | 188 |
| Chokepoints · Commodities | 0.07 | 186 |
| Chokepoints · Institutions | 0.33 | 188 |
| Chokepoints · Sovereign | 0.12 | 186 |
| Sanctions · Commodities | -0.09 | 188 |
| Sanctions · Institutions | 0.34 | 195 |
| Sanctions · Sovereign | 0.07 | 190 |
| Commodities · Institutions | 0.23 | 188 |
| Commodities · Sovereign | -0.09 | 186 |
| Institutions · Sovereign | 0.34 | 190 |
Pearson correlation between sub-indices over the countries that have both. Values near 0 mean they measure different things, which is what a composite index should do.
Consistency with other measures
| External measure | r | Spearman ρ | n |
|---|---|---|---|
| INFORM Risk (JRC) — input | 0.61 | 0.59 | 189 |
| Political stability (WGI, inverted) — input | 0.74 | 0.70 | 192 |
| Intelrift daily country risk — input | 0.60 | 0.53 | 192 |
| GDP (log) — not an input | 0.16 | 0.09 | 192 |
Correlation of the IGE with other measures. INFORM, political stability (WGI) and the daily country risk are inputs of one sub-index (15% of the weight), so a moderate-to-high correlation is expected; GDP per capita is not an input and its low correlation shows the index is not a proxy for income.
Chokepoint by chokepoint
Hormuz
2.3 % of covered GDP transits here
main chokepoint for 7 countries
7 with more than 10% of GDP exposed
Most exposed countries
Suez
5.9 % of covered GDP transits here
main chokepoint for 46 countries
64 with more than 10% of GDP exposed
Most exposed countries
Malacca
6.6 % of covered GDP transits here
main chokepoint for 69 countries
49 with more than 10% of GDP exposed
Most exposed countries
Bab el-Mandeb
6.3 % of covered GDP transits here
main chokepoint for 22 countries
69 with more than 10% of GDP exposed
Most exposed countries
Panama
2.0 % of covered GDP transits here
main chokepoint for 31 countries
13 with more than 10% of GDP exposed
Most exposed countries
Bosphorus
0.6 % of covered GDP transits here
main chokepoint for 13 countries
9 with more than 10% of GDP exposed
Most exposed countries
Estimated structural exposure: percentage points of GDP that would transit the chokepoint according to World Bank partner shares and the routing matrix documented in the methodology, capped at 100% of GDP (re-export hubs such as the UAE, Djibouti or Singapore trade more than they produce). Not measured traffic.
Who pays for their neighbours' sanctions: trade exposure to sanctioned jurisdictions
Sum of trade shares by partner group multiplied by the group's mean direct sanctions score (GDP-weighted), on a 0–100 scale. Economies whose trade depends on Russia or China top the list.
Source: Intelrift, IGE · World Bank partner sharesData through 19 October 2026
Five ways to be exposed
Chokepoints
71Lebanon, Eritrea, Moldova, Mali, Central African Republic, Burkina Faso
Commodities
45Sovereign
10Palestinian Territories, Egypt, Montenegro, Argentina, Australia, Dominica
Each country is assigned to the sub-index that contributes most to its score. Examples are the highest-scoring countries in each profile.
Source: Intelrift, IGEData through 19 October 2026
Sub-indices
Chokepoints · 25 %
- What it measures
- How much of the country's GDP depends on six maritime passages (Hormuz, Suez, Malacca, Bab el-Mandeb, Panama, Bosphorus) staying open, plus its imported-energy dependence, logistics performance and whether it is landlocked.
- Why it matters
- A closure or a freight spike hits open economies whose trade runs through a single strait first.
- Example
- Singapore and the Gulf states score high because of Malacca and Hormuz; a landlocked European economy scores low even if it trades a lot.
Sanctions · 25 %
- What it measures
- Whether the jurisdiction is under a sanctions regime (and how intense), how many people and entities linked to the country appear on the OFAC, EU, UN and UK lists, how many on US export-control lists, and how much it trades with sanctioned partners.
- Why it matters
- Sanctions cut off financing, technology and markets; contagion arrives through trade partners.
- Example
- Russia and Iran score high on regime and designations; the UAE, Hong Kong or Türkiye rise on linked designations and export controls without being sanctioned.
Commodity concentration · 20 %
- What it measures
- Concentration of exports and imports by product group (Herfindahl index), fuel and food share of imports, natural resource rents over GDP and terms-of-trade volatility.
- Why it matters
- A country living off one or two products, or importing most of its energy and food, depends on prices it does not control.
- Example
- Oil exporters and food-importing islands score high; diversified manufacturing economies, low.
Institutional fragility · 15 %
- What it measures
- Rule of law, political stability, government effectiveness and control of corruption (WGI), the INFORM index, battle deaths, homicides and new conflict displacements per capita, and the quarter's political and security events recorded by Intelrift.
- Why it matters
- Institutional fragility turns an external shock into a domestic crisis.
- Example
- Countries in active conflict or with weak institutions score high; consolidated democracies, low.
Sovereign stress · 15 %
- What it measures
- Reserves in months of imports, current account balance, inflation, depreciation against the dollar, external debt and its service, short-term debt over reserves, broad money over reserves, interest over revenue and Intelrift's daily country risk.
- Why it matters
- Without reserves or fiscal room, a price or funding shock becomes a balance-of-payments crisis.
- Example
- Economies with high inflation, a falling currency and scarce reserves score high; surplus exporters with ample reserves, low.
Read the methodology · Chokepoints 25 % · Sanctions 25 % · Commodity concentration 20 % · Institutional fragility 15 % · Sovereign stress 15 %