Intelrift Geoeconomic Index· Edition 1 · Q4 2026
Ethiopia
44.0
Comparable countries
- BoliviaIGE 38.5 · distance 8.1
- DjiboutiIGE 40.1 · distance 8.7
- ZimbabweIGE 38.8 · distance 9.0
- LiberiaIGE 39.1 · distance 9.9
Nearest in the five-dimensional sub-index space (euclidean distance over shared dimensions).
What would move the score
- Chokepoints±2.5 points
- Sanctions±2.5 points
- Commodity concentration±2.0 points
- Institutional fragility±1.5 points
- Sovereign stress±1.5 points
Change in the IGE if one sub-index moved by 10 points, with this country's effective weights.
Sub-indices against the regional and global mean
CountryRegional meanGlobal mean
Source: Intelrift, IGE. Simple means of covered countries.Data through 19 October 2026
History by edition
Hollow points are retrospectives: past years computed with the current method, without newsroom events and with the current snapshot of the sanctions lists.
Source: Intelrift, IGEData through 19 October 2026
Key factors
What drives the score
- Landlocked (transit dependence): yes (2026), risk percentile 100.source
- Annual depreciation against the dollar: +51.3 % (2024), risk percentile 100.source
- Political stability and absence of violence (WGI): 33.1 (2025), risk percentile 99.source
- Reserves in months of imports: 1.8 months (2024), risk percentile 95.source
Each factor comes from a sourced, dated input; the percentile says where the country sits among those covered.
How it is calculated
Weights, coverage and provenance
5 of 5 sub-indices available · ige-v1
Provenance hash
SHA-256 of the canonical JSON of the inputs, their sources and periods, the winsorisation bounds and the weights. Same inputs, same hash.
Sub-index inputs
Chokepoints · 50.2
How much of the country's GDP depends on six maritime passages (Hormuz, Suez, Malacca, Bab el-Mandeb, Panama, Bosphorus) staying open, plus its imported-energy dependence, logistics performance and whether it is landlocked.
| Exposure to the main chokepoint (2025) | 16.4 % of GDP · percentile 30 |
| Total chokepoint exposure (2025) | 32.5 % of GDP · percentile 28 |
| Net energy import dependence (2024) | 10.3 % · percentile 11 |
| Fuel share of imports (2023) | 15.4 % · percentile 47 |
| Landlocked (transit dependence) (2026) | yes · percentile 100 |
| Logistics performance (LPI) (2016) | 2.4 · percentile 85 |
Sanctions · 21.6
Whether the jurisdiction is under a sanctions regime (and how intense), how many people and entities linked to the country appear on the OFAC, EU, UN and UK lists, how many on US export-control lists, and how much it trades with sanctioned partners.
| Jurisdiction-level sanctions regime | no regime · percentile 0 |
| Designations linked to the country (2026) | 13 · percentile 41 |
| Designations under country programmes (2026) | 0 · percentile 0 |
| Entities under US export controls (2026) | 0 · percentile 0 |
| Exposure to sanctioned partners (2023) | 42.5 · percentile 67 |
Commodity concentration · 39.7
Concentration of exports and imports by product group (Herfindahl index), fuel and food share of imports, natural resource rents over GDP and terms-of-trade volatility.
| Export concentration (HHI) (2023) | 0.66 · percentile 65 |
| Import concentration (HHI) (2023) | 0.52 · percentile 60 |
| Fuel and food share of imports (2023) | 29.3 % · percentile 38 |
| Natural resource rents (2021) | 5.9 % of GDP · percentile 20 |
| Terms-of-trade volatility (2024) | 6.7 % · percentile 16 |
Institutional fragility · 68.9
Rule of law, political stability, government effectiveness and control of corruption (WGI), the INFORM index, battle deaths, homicides and new conflict displacements per capita, and the quarter's political and security events recorded by Intelrift.
| Rule of law (WGI) (2025) | 43.2 · percentile 78 |
| Political stability and absence of violence (WGI) (2025) | 33.1 · percentile 99 |
| Government effectiveness (WGI) (2025) | 39.7 · percentile 72 |
| Control of corruption (WGI) (2025) | 40.5 · percentile 66 |
| INFORM risk index (2026) | 7.1 · percentile 91 |
| Battle-related deaths per 100,000 people (2025) | 2.09 · percentile 45 |
| Intentional homicides per 100,000 people (2012) | 8.51 · percentile 26 |
| New conflict displacements per 1,000 people (2025) | 5.86 · percentile 54 |
| Political and security events (90 days) (2026) | 85.4 · percentile 89 |
| Terror and narco incidents (90 days) (2026) | insufficient data |
Sovereign stress · 52.0
Reserves in months of imports, current account balance, inflation, depreciation against the dollar, external debt and its service, short-term debt over reserves, broad money over reserves, interest over revenue and Intelrift's daily country risk.
| Reserves in months of imports (2024) | 1.8 months · percentile 95 |
| Current account balance (2024) | -2.5 % of GDP · percentile 51 |
| Annual inflation (2025) | 13.2 % · percentile 49 |
| Annual depreciation against the dollar (2024) | +51.3 % · percentile 100 |
| External debt to GNI (2022) | 24.3 % · percentile 11 |
| Debt service to exports (2024) | 11.5 % · percentile 22 |
| Short-term debt to reserves (2024) | 9.3 % · percentile 7 |
| Broad money to reserves | insufficient data |
| Interest payments to revenue (2024) | 12.6 % · percentile 45 |
| Intelrift daily country risk (2026) | 47 · percentile 87 |