Intelrift Geoeconomic Index· Edition 1 · Q4 2026
Mali
48.8
Comparable countries
- Central African RepublicIGE 48.4 · distance 9.4
- ChadIGE 43.6 · distance 10.5
- NigerIGE 39.1 · distance 10.9
- Burkina FasoIGE 46.2 · distance 11.3
Nearest in the five-dimensional sub-index space (euclidean distance over shared dimensions).
What would move the score
- Chokepoints±2.5 points
- Sanctions±2.5 points
- Commodity concentration±2.0 points
- Institutional fragility±1.5 points
- Sovereign stress±1.5 points
Change in the IGE if one sub-index moved by 10 points, with this country's effective weights.
Sub-indices against the regional and global mean
CountryRegional meanGlobal mean
Source: Intelrift, IGE. Simple means of covered countries.Data through 19 October 2026
History by edition
Hollow points are retrospectives: past years computed with the current method, without newsroom events and with the current snapshot of the sanctions lists.
Source: Intelrift, IGEData through 19 October 2026
Key factors
What drives the score
- Fuel share of imports: 36.3 % (2023), risk percentile 100.source
- Political stability and absence of violence (WGI): 21.8 (2025), risk percentile 100.source
- Fuel and food share of imports: 49.8 % (2023), risk percentile 90.source
- Rule of law (WGI): 39.1 (2025), risk percentile 85.source
Each factor comes from a sourced, dated input; the percentile says where the country sits among those covered.
How it is calculated
Weights, coverage and provenance
5 of 5 sub-indices available · ige-v1
Provenance hash
SHA-256 of the canonical JSON of the inputs, their sources and periods, the winsorisation bounds and the weights. Same inputs, same hash.
Sub-index inputs
Chokepoints · 55.0
How much of the country's GDP depends on six maritime passages (Hormuz, Suez, Malacca, Bab el-Mandeb, Panama, Bosphorus) staying open, plus its imported-energy dependence, logistics performance and whether it is landlocked.
| Exposure to the main chokepoint (2025) | 3.6 % of GDP · percentile 0 |
| Total chokepoint exposure (2025) | 8.4 % of GDP · percentile 1 |
| Net energy import dependence | insufficient data |
| Fuel share of imports (2023) | 36.3 % · percentile 100 |
| Landlocked (transit dependence) (2026) | yes · percentile 100 |
| Logistics performance (LPI) (2022) | 2.6 · percentile 74 |
Sanctions · 29.0
Whether the jurisdiction is under a sanctions regime (and how intense), how many people and entities linked to the country appear on the OFAC, EU, UN and UK lists, how many on US export-control lists, and how much it trades with sanctioned partners.
| Jurisdiction-level sanctions regime (2026) | targeted regime · percentile 30 |
| Designations linked to the country (2026) | 83 · percentile 70 |
| Designations under country programmes (2026) | 11 · percentile 45 |
| Entities under US export controls (2026) | 0 · percentile 0 |
| Exposure to sanctioned partners (2023) | 29.6 · percentile 0 |
Commodity concentration · 55.6
Concentration of exports and imports by product group (Herfindahl index), fuel and food share of imports, natural resource rents over GDP and terms-of-trade volatility.
| Export concentration (HHI) (2023) | 0.6 · percentile 55 |
| Import concentration (HHI) (2023) | 0.39 · percentile 17 |
| Fuel and food share of imports (2023) | 49.8 % · percentile 90 |
| Natural resource rents (2021) | 18.4 % of GDP · percentile 62 |
| Terms-of-trade volatility (2024) | 18.6 % · percentile 55 |
Institutional fragility · 82.3
Rule of law, political stability, government effectiveness and control of corruption (WGI), the INFORM index, battle deaths, homicides and new conflict displacements per capita, and the quarter's political and security events recorded by Intelrift.
| Rule of law (WGI) (2025) | 39.1 · percentile 85 |
| Political stability and absence of violence (WGI) (2025) | 21.8 · percentile 100 |
| Government effectiveness (WGI) (2025) | 24.3 · percentile 95 |
| Control of corruption (WGI) (2025) | 29.1 · percentile 82 |
| INFORM risk index (2026) | 7.3 · percentile 95 |
| Battle-related deaths per 100,000 people (2025) | 4 · percentile 64 |
| Intentional homicides per 100,000 people | insufficient data |
| New conflict displacements per 1,000 people (2025) | 6.03 · percentile 55 |
| Political and security events (90 days) (2026) | 80.8 · percentile 83 |
| Terror and narco incidents (90 days) (2026) | insufficient data |
Sovereign stress · 28.6
Reserves in months of imports, current account balance, inflation, depreciation against the dollar, external debt and its service, short-term debt over reserves, broad money over reserves, interest over revenue and Intelrift's daily country risk.
| Reserves in months of imports | insufficient data |
| Current account balance (2024) | -4.3 % of GDP · percentile 56 |
| Annual inflation (2025) | 3.3 % · percentile 13 |
| Annual depreciation against the dollar (2025) | -4 % · percentile 14 |
| External debt to GNI (2024) | 24.9 % · percentile 12 |
| Debt service to exports (2024) | 6.2 % · percentile 8 |
| Short-term debt to reserves | insufficient data |
| Broad money to reserves | insufficient data |
| Interest payments to revenue (2020) | 7.6 % · percentile 26 |
| Intelrift daily country risk (2026) | 39 · percentile 71 |