Intelrift Geoeconomic Index· Edition 1 · Q4 2026
Papua New Guinea
36.9
Comparable countries
- GabonIGE 34.2 · distance 4.9
- Congo - BrazzavilleIGE 39.0 · distance 6.4
- NigeriaIGE 42.7 · distance 7.5
- GuyanaIGE 38.7 · distance 7.6
Nearest in the five-dimensional sub-index space (euclidean distance over shared dimensions).
What would move the score
- Chokepoints±2.5 points
- Sanctions±2.5 points
- Commodity concentration±2.0 points
- Institutional fragility±1.5 points
- Sovereign stress±1.5 points
Change in the IGE if one sub-index moved by 10 points, with this country's effective weights.
Sub-indices against the regional and global mean
CountryRegional meanGlobal mean
Source: Intelrift, IGE. Simple means of covered countries.Data through 19 October 2026
History by edition
Hollow points are retrospectives: past years computed with the current method, without newsroom events and with the current snapshot of the sanctions lists.
Source: Intelrift, IGEData through 19 October 2026
Key factors
What drives the score
- Debt service to exports: 43.3 % (2024), risk percentile 100.source
- Terms-of-trade volatility: 32 % (2024), risk percentile 99.source
- INFORM risk index: 6.6 (2026), risk percentile 83.source
- Exposure to sanctioned partners: 44.3 (2023), risk percentile 82.source
Each factor comes from a sourced, dated input; the percentile says where the country sits among those covered.
How it is calculated
Weights, coverage and provenance
5 of 5 sub-indices available · ige-v1
Provenance hash
SHA-256 of the canonical JSON of the inputs, their sources and periods, the winsorisation bounds and the weights. Same inputs, same hash.
Sub-index inputs
Chokepoints · 26.6
How much of the country's GDP depends on six maritime passages (Hormuz, Suez, Malacca, Bab el-Mandeb, Panama, Bosphorus) staying open, plus its imported-energy dependence, logistics performance and whether it is landlocked.
| Exposure to the main chokepoint (2025) | 4.6 % of GDP · percentile 2 |
| Total chokepoint exposure (2025) | 15.9 % of GDP · percentile 10 |
| Net energy import dependence | insufficient data |
| Fuel share of imports (2023) | 17 % · percentile 52 |
| Landlocked (transit dependence) (2026) | no · percentile 0 |
| Logistics performance (LPI) (2022) | 2.7 · percentile 68 |
Sanctions · 16.4
Whether the jurisdiction is under a sanctions regime (and how intense), how many people and entities linked to the country appear on the OFAC, EU, UN and UK lists, how many on US export-control lists, and how much it trades with sanctioned partners.
| Jurisdiction-level sanctions regime | no regime · percentile 0 |
| Designations linked to the country | 0 · percentile 0 |
| Designations under country programmes | 0 · percentile 0 |
| Entities under US export controls | 0 · percentile 0 |
| Exposure to sanctioned partners (2023) | 44.3 · percentile 82 |
Commodity concentration · 58.4
Concentration of exports and imports by product group (Herfindahl index), fuel and food share of imports, natural resource rents over GDP and terms-of-trade volatility.
| Export concentration (HHI) (2023) | 0.31 · percentile 7 |
| Import concentration (HHI) (2023) | 0.48 · percentile 47 |
| Fuel and food share of imports (2023) | 33.5 % · percentile 48 |
| Natural resource rents (2021) | 27.4 % of GDP · percentile 91 |
| Terms-of-trade volatility (2024) | 32 % · percentile 99 |
Institutional fragility · 57.3
Rule of law, political stability, government effectiveness and control of corruption (WGI), the INFORM index, battle deaths, homicides and new conflict displacements per capita, and the quarter's political and security events recorded by Intelrift.
| Rule of law (WGI) (2025) | 49.2 · percentile 67 |
| Political stability and absence of violence (WGI) (2025) | 56 · percentile 58 |
| Government effectiveness (WGI) (2025) | 37.8 · percentile 75 |
| Control of corruption (WGI) (2025) | 32.3 · percentile 78 |
| INFORM risk index (2026) | 6.6 · percentile 83 |
| Battle-related deaths per 100,000 people | insufficient data |
| Intentional homicides per 100,000 people (2010) | 9.34 · percentile 28 |
| New conflict displacements per 1,000 people (2025) | 0.19 · percentile 5 |
| Political and security events (90 days) (2026) | 68.1 · percentile 65 |
| Terror and narco incidents (90 days) (2026) | insufficient data |
Sovereign stress · 39.2
Reserves in months of imports, current account balance, inflation, depreciation against the dollar, external debt and its service, short-term debt over reserves, broad money over reserves, interest over revenue and Intelrift's daily country risk.
| Reserves in months of imports (2024) | 4.9 months · percentile 70 |
| Current account balance (2024) | 15.5 % of GDP · percentile 0 |
| Annual inflation (2025) | 4.4 % · percentile 17 |
| Annual depreciation against the dollar (2025) | +7 % · percentile 74 |
| External debt to GNI (2024) | 41.9 % · percentile 28 |
| Debt service to exports (2024) | 43.3 % · percentile 100 |
| Short-term debt to reserves (2024) | 3.3 % · percentile 2 |
| Broad money to reserves (2019) | 2.9× · percentile 14 |
| Interest payments to revenue (2024) | 14.2 % · percentile 51 |
| Intelrift daily country risk (2026) | 20 · percentile 35 |