Intelrift Geoeconomic Index· Edition 1 · Q4 2026
Belarus
48.7
Comparable countries
- CubaIGE 48.8 · distance 9.5
- SyriaIGE 54.1 · distance 14.1
- AfghanistanIGE 53.6 · distance 14.2
- Myanmar (Burma)IGE 53.7 · distance 14.7
Nearest in the five-dimensional sub-index space (euclidean distance over shared dimensions).
What would move the score
- Chokepoints±2.5 points
- Sanctions±2.5 points
- Commodity concentration±2.0 points
- Institutional fragility±1.5 points
- Sovereign stress±1.5 points
Change in the IGE if one sub-index moved by 10 points, with this country's effective weights.
Sub-indices against the regional and global mean
CountryRegional meanGlobal mean
Source: Intelrift, IGE. Simple means of covered countries.Data through 19 October 2026
History by edition
Hollow points are retrospectives: past years computed with the current method, without newsroom events and with the current snapshot of the sanctions lists.
Source: Intelrift, IGEData through 19 October 2026
Key factors
What drives the score
- Designations linked to the country: 781 (2026), risk percentile 100.source
- Short-term debt to reserves: 111.4 % (2024), risk percentile 88.source
- Rule of law (WGI): 38.4 (2025), risk percentile 87.source
- Reserves in months of imports: 3 months (2025), risk percentile 85.source
Each factor comes from a sourced, dated input; the percentile says where the country sits among those covered.
How it is calculated
Weights, coverage and provenance
5 of 5 sub-indices available · ige-v1
Provenance hash
SHA-256 of the canonical JSON of the inputs, their sources and periods, the winsorisation bounds and the weights. Same inputs, same hash.
Sub-index inputs
Chokepoints · 47.5
How much of the country's GDP depends on six maritime passages (Hormuz, Suez, Malacca, Bab el-Mandeb, Panama, Bosphorus) staying open, plus its imported-energy dependence, logistics performance and whether it is landlocked.
| Exposure to the main chokepoint (2025) | 17 % of GDP · percentile 31 |
| Total chokepoint exposure (2025) | 47 % of GDP · percentile 45 |
| Net energy import dependence (2024) | 71.1 % · percentile 76 |
| Fuel share of imports (2020) | 20.4 % · percentile 65 |
| Landlocked (transit dependence) (2026) | no · percentile 0 |
| Logistics performance (LPI) (2022) | 2.7 · percentile 68 |
Sanctions · 80.7
Whether the jurisdiction is under a sanctions regime (and how intense), how many people and entities linked to the country appear on the OFAC, EU, UN and UK lists, how many on US export-control lists, and how much it trades with sanctioned partners.
| Jurisdiction-level sanctions regime (2026) | sectoral regime · percentile 60 |
| Designations linked to the country (2026) | 781 · percentile 100 |
| Designations under country programmes (2026) | 795 · percentile 100 |
| Entities under US export controls (2026) | 37 · percentile 88 |
| Exposure to sanctioned partners (2023) | 41.2 · percentile 56 |
Commodity concentration · 13.0
Concentration of exports and imports by product group (Herfindahl index), fuel and food share of imports, natural resource rents over GDP and terms-of-trade volatility.
| Export concentration (HHI) (2021) | 0.27 · percentile 0 |
| Import concentration (HHI) (2021) | 0.32 · percentile 0 |
| Fuel and food share of imports (2021) | 30.7 % · percentile 42 |
| Natural resource rents (2021) | 1.9 % of GDP · percentile 6 |
| Terms-of-trade volatility (2024) | 7.1 % · percentile 17 |
Institutional fragility · 54.0
Rule of law, political stability, government effectiveness and control of corruption (WGI), the INFORM index, battle deaths, homicides and new conflict displacements per capita, and the quarter's political and security events recorded by Intelrift.
| Rule of law (WGI) (2025) | 38.4 · percentile 87 |
| Political stability and absence of violence (WGI) (2025) | 62.6 · percentile 47 |
| Government effectiveness (WGI) (2025) | 36 · percentile 77 |
| Control of corruption (WGI) (2025) | 36.5 · percentile 71 |
| INFORM risk index (2026) | 2.4 · percentile 10 |
| Battle-related deaths per 100,000 people | insufficient data |
| Intentional homicides per 100,000 people (2019) | 2.38 · percentile 6 |
| New conflict displacements per 1,000 people | insufficient data |
| Political and security events (90 days) (2026) | 78.3 · percentile 79 |
| Terror and narco incidents (90 days) (2026) | insufficient data |
Sovereign stress · 39.6
Reserves in months of imports, current account balance, inflation, depreciation against the dollar, external debt and its service, short-term debt over reserves, broad money over reserves, interest over revenue and Intelrift's daily country risk.
| Reserves in months of imports (2025) | 3 months · percentile 85 |
| Current account balance (2025) | -1.2 % of GDP · percentile 47 |
| Annual inflation (2025) | 6.6 % · percentile 25 |
| Annual depreciation against the dollar (2025) | -5.5 % · percentile 6 |
| External debt to GNI (2024) | 46.2 % · percentile 32 |
| Debt service to exports (2024) | 10.5 % · percentile 19 |
| Short-term debt to reserves (2024) | 111.4 % · percentile 88 |
| Broad money to reserves (2021) | 2.5× · percentile 12 |
| Interest payments to revenue (2024) | 4.2 % · percentile 14 |
| Intelrift daily country risk (2026) | 37 · percentile 67 |