Intelrift Geoeconomic Index· Edition 1 · Q4 2026
Syria
54.1
Comparable countries
- Myanmar (Burma)IGE 53.7 · distance 4.1
- AfghanistanIGE 53.6 · distance 10.7
- LebanonIGE 55.7 · distance 13.0
- BelarusIGE 48.7 · distance 14.1
Nearest in the five-dimensional sub-index space (euclidean distance over shared dimensions).
What would move the score
- Chokepoints±2.5 points
- Sanctions±2.5 points
- Commodity concentration±2.0 points
- Institutional fragility±1.5 points
- Sovereign stress±1.5 points
Change in the IGE if one sub-index moved by 10 points, with this country's effective weights.
Sub-indices against the regional and global mean
CountryRegional meanGlobal mean
Source: Intelrift, IGE. Simple means of covered countries.Data through 19 October 2026
History by edition
Hollow points are retrospectives: past years computed with the current method, without newsroom events and with the current snapshot of the sanctions lists.
Source: Intelrift, IGEData through 19 October 2026
Key factors
What drives the score
- Designations linked to the country: 822 (2026), risk percentile 100.source
- Rule of law (WGI): 28.7 (2025), risk percentile 100.source
- Annual depreciation against the dollar: +99.5 % (2022), risk percentile 100.source
- Battle-related deaths per 100,000 people: 10.66 (2025), risk percentile 98.source
Each factor comes from a sourced, dated input; the percentile says where the country sits among those covered.
How it is calculated
Weights, coverage and provenance
5 of 5 sub-indices available · ige-v1
Provenance hash
SHA-256 of the canonical JSON of the inputs, their sources and periods, the winsorisation bounds and the weights. Same inputs, same hash.
Sub-index inputs
Chokepoints · 46.6
How much of the country's GDP depends on six maritime passages (Hormuz, Suez, Malacca, Bab el-Mandeb, Panama, Bosphorus) staying open, plus its imported-energy dependence, logistics performance and whether it is landlocked.
| Exposure to the main chokepoint (2025) | 19.2 % of GDP · percentile 36 |
| Total chokepoint exposure (2025) | 48.9 % of GDP · percentile 47 |
| Net energy import dependence (2024) | 42.3 % · percentile 45 |
| Fuel share of imports (2010) | 19.7 % · percentile 62 |
| Landlocked (transit dependence) (2026) | no · percentile 0 |
| Logistics performance (LPI) (2022) | 2.3 · percentile 89 |
Sanctions · 80.4
Whether the jurisdiction is under a sanctions regime (and how intense), how many people and entities linked to the country appear on the OFAC, EU, UN and UK lists, how many on US export-control lists, and how much it trades with sanctioned partners.
| Jurisdiction-level sanctions regime (2026) | targeted regime · percentile 30 |
| Designations linked to the country (2026) | 822 · percentile 100 |
| Designations under country programmes (2026) | 907 · percentile 100 |
| Entities under US export controls (2026) | 27 · percentile 80 |
| Exposure to sanctioned partners (2023) | 45.4 · percentile 91 |
Commodity concentration · 23.4
Concentration of exports and imports by product group (Herfindahl index), fuel and food share of imports, natural resource rents over GDP and terms-of-trade volatility.
| Export concentration (HHI) (2010) | 0.36 · percentile 15 |
| Import concentration (HHI) (2010) | 0.38 · percentile 13 |
| Fuel and food share of imports (2010) | 40.7 % · percentile 67 |
| Natural resource rents (2020) | 6.4 % of GDP · percentile 21 |
| Terms-of-trade volatility (2024) | 1.9 % · percentile 1 |
Institutional fragility · 83.3
Rule of law, political stability, government effectiveness and control of corruption (WGI), the INFORM index, battle deaths, homicides and new conflict displacements per capita, and the quarter's political and security events recorded by Intelrift.
| Rule of law (WGI) (2025) | 28.7 · percentile 100 |
| Political stability and absence of violence (WGI) (2025) | 25 · percentile 100 |
| Government effectiveness (WGI) (2025) | 19.9 · percentile 100 |
| Control of corruption (WGI) (2025) | 15.4 · percentile 100 |
| INFORM risk index (2026) | 7.6 · percentile 100 |
| Battle-related deaths per 100,000 people (2025) | 10.66 · percentile 98 |
| Intentional homicides per 100,000 people (2010) | 2.06 · percentile 5 |
| New conflict displacements per 1,000 people (2025) | 6.79 · percentile 58 |
| Political and security events (90 days) (2026) | 85 · percentile 89 |
| Terror and narco incidents (90 days) (2026) | insufficient data |
Sovereign stress · 34.3
Reserves in months of imports, current account balance, inflation, depreciation against the dollar, external debt and its service, short-term debt over reserves, broad money over reserves, interest over revenue and Intelrift's daily country risk.
| Reserves in months of imports (2010) | 11.7 months · percentile 15 |
| Current account balance (2010) | -0.6 % of GDP · percentile 46 |
| Annual inflation (2019) | 13.4 % · percentile 50 |
| Annual depreciation against the dollar (2022) | +99.5 % · percentile 100 |
| External debt to GNI (2023) | 25.3 % · percentile 12 |
| Debt service to exports (2010) | 3.2 % · percentile 1 |
| Short-term debt to reserves (2010) | 2.7 % · percentile 2 |
| Broad money to reserves (2010) | 2.1× · percentile 9 |
| Interest payments to revenue | insufficient data |
| Intelrift daily country risk (2026) | 41 · percentile 75 |