Intelrift Geoeconomic Index· Edition 1 · Q4 2026
Italy
31.5
Comparable countries
- SpainIGE 30.0 · distance 4.0
- AlbaniaIGE 29.5 · distance 4.6
- RomaniaIGE 32.9 · distance 5.9
- PolandIGE 27.3 · distance 5.9
Nearest in the five-dimensional sub-index space (euclidean distance over shared dimensions).
What would move the score
- Chokepoints±2.5 points
- Sanctions±2.5 points
- Commodity concentration±2.0 points
- Institutional fragility±1.5 points
- Sovereign stress±1.5 points
Change in the IGE if one sub-index moved by 10 points, with this country's effective weights.
Sub-indices against the regional and global mean
CountryRegional meanGlobal mean
Source: Intelrift, IGE. Simple means of covered countries.Data through 19 October 2026
History by edition
Hollow points are retrospectives: past years computed with the current method, without newsroom events and with the current snapshot of the sanctions lists.
Source: Intelrift, IGEData through 19 October 2026
Key factors
What drives the score
- Net energy import dependence: 79.2 % (2024), risk percentile 84.source
- Political and security events (90 days): 81.7 (2026), risk percentile 84.source
- Designations linked to the country: 121 (2026), risk percentile 75.source
- Intelrift daily country risk: 37 (2026), risk percentile 67.source
Each factor comes from a sourced, dated input; the percentile says where the country sits among those covered.
How it is calculated
Weights, coverage and provenance
5 of 5 sub-indices available · ige-v1
Provenance hash
SHA-256 of the canonical JSON of the inputs, their sources and periods, the winsorisation bounds and the weights. Same inputs, same hash.
Sub-index inputs
Chokepoints · 30.0
How much of the country's GDP depends on six maritime passages (Hormuz, Suez, Malacca, Bab el-Mandeb, Panama, Bosphorus) staying open, plus its imported-energy dependence, logistics performance and whether it is landlocked.
| Exposure to the main chokepoint (2025) | 12.5 % of GDP · percentile 21 |
| Total chokepoint exposure (2025) | 33.1 % of GDP · percentile 29 |
| Net energy import dependence (2024) | 79.2 % · percentile 84 |
| Fuel share of imports (2025) | 10.7 % · percentile 30 |
| Landlocked (transit dependence) (2026) | no · percentile 0 |
| Logistics performance (LPI) (2022) | 3.7 · percentile 16 |
Sanctions · 33.5
Whether the jurisdiction is under a sanctions regime (and how intense), how many people and entities linked to the country appear on the OFAC, EU, UN and UK lists, how many on US export-control lists, and how much it trades with sanctioned partners.
| Jurisdiction-level sanctions regime | no regime · percentile 0 |
| Designations linked to the country (2026) | 121 · percentile 75 |
| Designations under country programmes (2026) | 0 · percentile 0 |
| Entities under US export controls (2026) | 4 · percentile 39 |
| Exposure to sanctioned partners (2023) | 40.9 · percentile 53 |
Commodity concentration · 29.8
Concentration of exports and imports by product group (Herfindahl index), fuel and food share of imports, natural resource rents over GDP and terms-of-trade volatility.
| Export concentration (HHI) (2025) | 0.63 · percentile 60 |
| Import concentration (HHI) (2025) | 0.48 · percentile 47 |
| Fuel and food share of imports (2025) | 22.7 % · percentile 21 |
| Natural resource rents (2021) | 0.1 % of GDP · percentile 0 |
| Terms-of-trade volatility (2024) | 8.2 % · percentile 21 |
Institutional fragility · 32.6
Rule of law, political stability, government effectiveness and control of corruption (WGI), the INFORM index, battle deaths, homicides and new conflict displacements per capita, and the quarter's political and security events recorded by Intelrift.
| Rule of law (WGI) (2025) | 68.3 · percentile 32 |
| Political stability and absence of violence (WGI) (2025) | 73.6 · percentile 27 |
| Government effectiveness (WGI) (2025) | 71.3 · percentile 25 |
| Control of corruption (WGI) (2025) | 59.8 · percentile 37 |
| INFORM risk index (2026) | 3.1 · percentile 22 |
| Battle-related deaths per 100,000 people | insufficient data |
| Intentional homicides per 100,000 people (2023) | 0.57 · percentile 1 |
| New conflict displacements per 1,000 people | insufficient data |
| Political and security events (90 days) (2026) | 81.7 · percentile 84 |
| Terror and narco incidents (90 days) (2026) | insufficient data |
Sovereign stress · 32.1
Reserves in months of imports, current account balance, inflation, depreciation against the dollar, external debt and its service, short-term debt over reserves, broad money over reserves, interest over revenue and Intelrift's daily country risk.
| Reserves in months of imports | not applicable |
| Current account balance (2025) | 1.2 % of GDP · percentile 41 |
| Annual inflation (2025) | 1.5 % · percentile 6 |
| Annual depreciation against the dollar (2025) | -4.2 % · percentile 13 |
| External debt to GNI | not applicable |
| Debt service to exports | not applicable |
| Short-term debt to reserves | not applicable |
| Broad money to reserves | not applicable |
| Interest payments to revenue (2024) | 9.4 % · percentile 33 |
| Intelrift daily country risk (2026) | 37 · percentile 67 |