Intelrift Geoeconomic Index· Edition 1 · Q4 2026
Türkiye
42.2
Comparable countries
- PakistanIGE 44.9 · distance 10.5
- EgyptIGE 38.5 · distance 10.9
- CubaIGE 48.8 · distance 11.0
- PanamaIGE 41.5 · distance 11.3
Nearest in the five-dimensional sub-index space (euclidean distance over shared dimensions).
What would move the score
- Chokepoints±2.5 points
- Sanctions±2.5 points
- Commodity concentration±2.0 points
- Institutional fragility±1.5 points
- Sovereign stress±1.5 points
Change in the IGE if one sub-index moved by 10 points, with this country's effective weights.
Sub-indices against the regional and global mean
CountryRegional meanGlobal mean
Source: Intelrift, IGE. Simple means of covered countries.Data through 19 October 2026
History by edition
Hollow points are retrospectives: past years computed with the current method, without newsroom events and with the current snapshot of the sanctions lists.
Source: Intelrift, IGEData through 19 October 2026
Key factors
What drives the score
- Entities under US export controls: 128 (2026), risk percentile 100.source
- Annual inflation: 34.9 % (2025), risk percentile 100.source
- Political and security events (90 days): 83.8 (2026), risk percentile 87.source
- Intelrift daily country risk: 47 (2026), risk percentile 87.source
Each factor comes from a sourced, dated input; the percentile says where the country sits among those covered.
How it is calculated
Weights, coverage and provenance
5 of 5 sub-indices available · ige-v1
Provenance hash
SHA-256 of the canonical JSON of the inputs, their sources and periods, the winsorisation bounds and the weights. Same inputs, same hash.
Sub-index inputs
Chokepoints · 28.0
How much of the country's GDP depends on six maritime passages (Hormuz, Suez, Malacca, Bab el-Mandeb, Panama, Bosphorus) staying open, plus its imported-energy dependence, logistics performance and whether it is landlocked.
| Exposure to the main chokepoint (2025) | 10.8 % of GDP · percentile 17 |
| Total chokepoint exposure (2025) | 32.8 % of GDP · percentile 29 |
| Net energy import dependence (2024) | 70.1 % · percentile 75 |
| Fuel share of imports (2025) | 6.9 % · percentile 16 |
| Landlocked (transit dependence) (2026) | no · percentile 0 |
| Logistics performance (LPI) (2022) | 3.4 · percentile 32 |
Sanctions · 57.4
Whether the jurisdiction is under a sanctions regime (and how intense), how many people and entities linked to the country appear on the OFAC, EU, UN and UK lists, how many on US export-control lists, and how much it trades with sanctioned partners.
| Jurisdiction-level sanctions regime (2026) | targeted regime · percentile 30 |
| Designations linked to the country (2026) | 479 · percentile 97 |
| Designations under country programmes (2026) | 0 · percentile 0 |
| Entities under US export controls (2026) | 128 · percentile 100 |
| Exposure to sanctioned partners (2023) | 41.7 · percentile 60 |
Commodity concentration · 21.2
Concentration of exports and imports by product group (Herfindahl index), fuel and food share of imports, natural resource rents over GDP and terms-of-trade volatility.
| Export concentration (HHI) (2025) | 0.58 · percentile 52 |
| Import concentration (HHI) (2025) | 0.41 · percentile 23 |
| Fuel and food share of imports (2025) | 13.9 % · percentile 0 |
| Natural resource rents (2021) | 0.8 % of GDP · percentile 3 |
| Terms-of-trade volatility (2024) | 10.4 % · percentile 28 |
Institutional fragility · 46.9
Rule of law, political stability, government effectiveness and control of corruption (WGI), the INFORM index, battle deaths, homicides and new conflict displacements per capita, and the quarter's political and security events recorded by Intelrift.
| Rule of law (WGI) (2025) | 45.3 · percentile 74 |
| Political stability and absence of violence (WGI) (2025) | 50.2 · percentile 69 |
| Government effectiveness (WGI) (2025) | 52.9 · percentile 52 |
| Control of corruption (WGI) (2025) | 37.4 · percentile 70 |
| INFORM risk index (2026) | 5.2 · percentile 59 |
| Battle-related deaths per 100,000 people (2025) | 0.04 · percentile 2 |
| Intentional homicides per 100,000 people (2023) | 3.23 · percentile 9 |
| New conflict displacements per 1,000 people (2025) | 0.02 · percentile 1 |
| Political and security events (90 days) (2026) | 83.8 · percentile 87 |
| Terror and narco incidents (90 days) (2026) | insufficient data |
Sovereign stress · 63.5
Reserves in months of imports, current account balance, inflation, depreciation against the dollar, external debt and its service, short-term debt over reserves, broad money over reserves, interest over revenue and Intelrift's daily country risk.
| Reserves in months of imports (2025) | 5.1 months · percentile 68 |
| Current account balance (2025) | -1.9 % of GDP · percentile 49 |
| Annual inflation (2025) | 34.9 % · percentile 100 |
| Annual depreciation against the dollar (2025) | +20.3 % · percentile 100 |
| External debt to GNI (2024) | 39.4 % · percentile 26 |
| Debt service to exports (2024) | 23.4 % · percentile 51 |
| Short-term debt to reserves (2024) | 114.5 % · percentile 91 |
| Broad money to reserves (2025) | 3.7× · percentile 21 |
| Interest payments to revenue (2024) | 11.7 % · percentile 42 |
| Intelrift daily country risk (2026) | 47 · percentile 87 |