Intelrift Geoeconomic Index· Edition 1 · Q4 2026
Ukraine
52.1
Comparable countries
- PakistanIGE 44.9 · distance 7.6
- LebanonIGE 55.7 · distance 8.7
- YemenIGE 48.8 · distance 9.3
- CubaIGE 48.8 · distance 9.8
Nearest in the five-dimensional sub-index space (euclidean distance over shared dimensions).
What would move the score
- Chokepoints±2.5 points
- Sanctions±2.5 points
- Commodity concentration±2.0 points
- Institutional fragility±1.5 points
- Sovereign stress±1.5 points
Change in the IGE if one sub-index moved by 10 points, with this country's effective weights.
Sub-indices against the regional and global mean
CountryRegional meanGlobal mean
Source: Intelrift, IGE. Simple means of covered countries.Data through 19 October 2026
History by edition
Hollow points are retrospectives: past years computed with the current method, without newsroom events and with the current snapshot of the sanctions lists.
Source: Intelrift, IGEData through 19 October 2026
Key factors
What drives the score
- Designations linked to the country: 689 (2026), risk percentile 100.source
- Battle-related deaths per 100,000 people: 174.7 (2025), risk percentile 100.source
- Intelrift daily country risk: 55 (2026), risk percentile 100.source
- Entities under US export controls: 39 (2026), risk percentile 89.source
Each factor comes from a sourced, dated input; the percentile says where the country sits among those covered.
How it is calculated
Weights, coverage and provenance
5 of 5 sub-indices available · ige-v1
Provenance hash
SHA-256 of the canonical JSON of the inputs, their sources and periods, the winsorisation bounds and the weights. Same inputs, same hash.
Sub-index inputs
Chokepoints · 50.3
How much of the country's GDP depends on six maritime passages (Hormuz, Suez, Malacca, Bab el-Mandeb, Panama, Bosphorus) staying open, plus its imported-energy dependence, logistics performance and whether it is landlocked.
| Exposure to the main chokepoint (2025) | 41.7 % of GDP · percentile 87 |
| Total chokepoint exposure (2025) | 82.4 % of GDP · percentile 85 |
| Net energy import dependence (2024) | 23.2 % · percentile 25 |
| Fuel share of imports (2024) | 12.6 % · percentile 37 |
| Landlocked (transit dependence) (2026) | no · percentile 0 |
| Logistics performance (LPI) (2022) | 2.7 · percentile 68 |
Sanctions · 57.0
Whether the jurisdiction is under a sanctions regime (and how intense), how many people and entities linked to the country appear on the OFAC, EU, UN and UK lists, how many on US export-control lists, and how much it trades with sanctioned partners.
| Jurisdiction-level sanctions regime (2026) | targeted regime · percentile 30 |
| Designations linked to the country (2026) | 689 · percentile 100 |
| Designations under country programmes (2026) | 0 · percentile 0 |
| Entities under US export controls (2026) | 39 · percentile 89 |
| Exposure to sanctioned partners (2023) | 42.4 · percentile 66 |
Commodity concentration · 33.3
Concentration of exports and imports by product group (Herfindahl index), fuel and food share of imports, natural resource rents over GDP and terms-of-trade volatility.
| Export concentration (HHI) (2024) | 0.44 · percentile 28 |
| Import concentration (HHI) (2024) | 0.48 · percentile 47 |
| Fuel and food share of imports (2024) | 23.1 % · percentile 22 |
| Natural resource rents (2021) | 7.5 % of GDP · percentile 25 |
| Terms-of-trade volatility (2024) | 15.3 % · percentile 44 |
Institutional fragility · 70.3
Rule of law, political stability, government effectiveness and control of corruption (WGI), the INFORM index, battle deaths, homicides and new conflict displacements per capita, and the quarter's political and security events recorded by Intelrift.
| Rule of law (WGI) (2025) | 45.6 · percentile 73 |
| Political stability and absence of violence (WGI) (2025) | 59.8 · percentile 52 |
| Government effectiveness (WGI) (2025) | 40.2 · percentile 71 |
| Control of corruption (WGI) (2025) | 34.1 · percentile 75 |
| INFORM risk index (2026) | 5.7 · percentile 67 |
| Battle-related deaths per 100,000 people (2025) | 174.7 · percentile 100 |
| Intentional homicides per 100,000 people (2021) | 3.78 · percentile 11 |
| New conflict displacements per 1,000 people (2025) | 18.32 · percentile 83 |
| Political and security events (90 days) (2026) | 100 · percentile 100 |
| Terror and narco incidents (90 days) (2026) | insufficient data |
Sovereign stress · 53.5
Reserves in months of imports, current account balance, inflation, depreciation against the dollar, external debt and its service, short-term debt over reserves, broad money over reserves, interest over revenue and Intelrift's daily country risk.
| Reserves in months of imports (2025) | 5.8 months · percentile 63 |
| Current account balance (2025) | -13.5 % of GDP · percentile 82 |
| Annual inflation (2025) | 12.7 % · percentile 47 |
| Annual depreciation against the dollar (2025) | +3.8 % · percentile 56 |
| External debt to GNI (2024) | 101.3 % · percentile 86 |
| Debt service to exports (2024) | 15.8 % · percentile 32 |
| Short-term debt to reserves (2024) | 41.9 % · percentile 33 |
| Broad money to reserves (2025) | 1.7× · percentile 5 |
| Interest payments to revenue (2024) | 8.3 % · percentile 29 |
| Intelrift daily country risk (2026) | 55 · percentile 100 |