Intelrift Geoeconomic Index· Edition 1 · Q4 2026
Lebanon
55.7
Comparable countries
- UkraineIGE 52.1 · distance 8.7
- SyriaIGE 54.1 · distance 13.0
- Myanmar (Burma)IGE 53.7 · distance 14.0
- CubaIGE 48.8 · distance 14.7
Nearest in the five-dimensional sub-index space (euclidean distance over shared dimensions).
What would move the score
- Chokepoints±2.5 points
- Sanctions±2.5 points
- Commodity concentration±2.0 points
- Institutional fragility±1.5 points
- Sovereign stress±1.5 points
Change in the IGE if one sub-index moved by 10 points, with this country's effective weights.
Sub-indices against the regional and global mean
CountryRegional meanGlobal mean
Source: Intelrift, IGE. Simple means of covered countries.Data through 19 October 2026
History by edition
Hollow points are retrospectives: past years computed with the current method, without newsroom events and with the current snapshot of the sanctions lists.
Source: Intelrift, IGEData through 19 October 2026
Key factors
What drives the score
- Battle-related deaths per 100,000 people: 74.11 (2025), risk percentile 100.source
- Current account balance: -28.1 % of GDP (2023), risk percentile 100.source
- Designations linked to the country: 452 (2026), risk percentile 96.source
- Net energy import dependence: 89.5 % (2024), risk percentile 95.source
Each factor comes from a sourced, dated input; the percentile says where the country sits among those covered.
How it is calculated
Weights, coverage and provenance
5 of 5 sub-indices available · ige-v1
Provenance hash
SHA-256 of the canonical JSON of the inputs, their sources and periods, the winsorisation bounds and the weights. Same inputs, same hash.
Sub-index inputs
Chokepoints · 63.5
How much of the country's GDP depends on six maritime passages (Hormuz, Suez, Malacca, Bab el-Mandeb, Panama, Bosphorus) staying open, plus its imported-energy dependence, logistics performance and whether it is landlocked.
| Exposure to the main chokepoint (2025) | 28.7 % of GDP · percentile 58 |
| Total chokepoint exposure (2025) | 75 % of GDP · percentile 77 |
| Net energy import dependence (2024) | 89.5 % · percentile 95 |
| Fuel share of imports (2024) | 25.8 % · percentile 84 |
| Landlocked (transit dependence) (2026) | no · percentile 0 |
| Logistics performance (LPI) (2018) | 2.7 · percentile 67 |
Sanctions · 63.3
Whether the jurisdiction is under a sanctions regime (and how intense), how many people and entities linked to the country appear on the OFAC, EU, UN and UK lists, how many on US export-control lists, and how much it trades with sanctioned partners.
| Jurisdiction-level sanctions regime (2026) | targeted regime · percentile 30 |
| Designations linked to the country (2026) | 452 · percentile 96 |
| Designations under country programmes (2026) | 16 · percentile 52 |
| Entities under US export controls (2026) | 28 · percentile 81 |
| Exposure to sanctioned partners (2023) | 41.4 · percentile 57 |
Commodity concentration · 24.0
Concentration of exports and imports by product group (Herfindahl index), fuel and food share of imports, natural resource rents over GDP and terms-of-trade volatility.
| Export concentration (HHI) (2024) | 0.37 · percentile 17 |
| Import concentration (HHI) (2024) | 0.28 · percentile 0 |
| Fuel and food share of imports (2024) | 44.3 % · percentile 76 |
| Natural resource rents (2021) | 0 % of GDP · percentile 0 |
| Terms-of-trade volatility (2024) | 10.2 % · percentile 28 |
Institutional fragility · 78.5
Rule of law, political stability, government effectiveness and control of corruption (WGI), the INFORM index, battle deaths, homicides and new conflict displacements per capita, and the quarter's political and security events recorded by Intelrift.
| Rule of law (WGI) (2025) | 41.2 · percentile 81 |
| Political stability and absence of violence (WGI) (2025) | 43.4 · percentile 81 |
| Government effectiveness (WGI) (2025) | 29.9 · percentile 86 |
| Control of corruption (WGI) (2025) | 23.3 · percentile 91 |
| INFORM risk index (2026) | 6.4 · percentile 79 |
| Battle-related deaths per 100,000 people (2025) | 74.11 · percentile 100 |
| Intentional homicides per 100,000 people (2020) | 2.24 · percentile 6 |
| New conflict displacements per 1,000 people (2025) | 23.76 · percentile 90 |
| Political and security events (90 days) (2026) | 86.9 · percentile 91 |
| Terror and narco incidents (90 days) (2026) | insufficient data |
Sovereign stress · 49.7
Reserves in months of imports, current account balance, inflation, depreciation against the dollar, external debt and its service, short-term debt over reserves, broad money over reserves, interest over revenue and Intelrift's daily country risk.
| Reserves in months of imports (2023) | 13.6 months · percentile 0 |
| Current account balance (2023) | -28.1 % of GDP · percentile 100 |
| Annual inflation (2025) | 14.6 % · percentile 54 |
| Annual depreciation against the dollar (2025) | 0 % · percentile 36 |
| External debt to GNI (2023) | 331.7 % · percentile 100 |
| Debt service to exports (2024) | 21.1 % · percentile 45 |
| Short-term debt to reserves (2024) | 57.2 % · percentile 45 |
| Broad money to reserves (2017) | 2.5× · percentile 11 |
| Interest payments to revenue (2024) | 5.4 % · percentile 18 |
| Intelrift daily country risk (2026) | 47 · percentile 87 |