Geoeconomic Index · quarterly · public

GeoeconomicIndex.

Retrospective 2019Published on 19 October 2026Data through 31 December 2019Scale 0–100 · higher means more riskBack to the index

How much geoeconomic risk each economy carries: exposure to route closures, sanctions, dependence on a few commodities, institutional fragility and stress in its sovereign markets. Transparent, reproducible and falsifiable.

Three findings of the edition

South Sudan leads the edition with 68.7 points; Sanctions accounts for 39% of its score.
192 countries reach minimum coverage; Asia is the region with the highest average risk (38.3 points).
Malacca is the main chokepoint for 69 countries; 20 of them have more than 10% of GDP exposed to its closure.

Geoeconomic risk, country by country

Source: Intelrift, IGEData through 31 December 2019

Hover to see the score. Click to open the country page.

Ranking

Every country, sortable

192 / 197


1	South Sudan	68.7	—	—	59	—	82	72
2	Iraq	62.5	—	62	75	79	71	12
3	Venezuela	61.6	—	21	74	65	98	69
4	Libya	59.2	—	37	64	79	100	20
5	Afghanistan	58.3	—	65	78	30	86	25
6	Iran	58.0	—	29	100	55	54	44
7	Yemen	55.1	—	46	47	56	82	55
8	Belarus	54.5	—	54	87	27	46	46
9	Syria	52.8	—	48	78	23	87	25
10	Sudan	52.5	—	37	50	43	72	77
11	Lebanon	50.4	—	53	65	26	53	53
12	Eritrea	50.2	—	61	11	71	75	45
13	Myanmar (Burma)	49.6	—	43	74	30	57	40
14	Central African Republic	49.4	—	50	46	46	83	25
15	Ukraine	48.9	—	61	55	27	46	51
16	Russia	48.2	—	19	90	49	49	25
17	Mali	48.0	—	57	36	44	78	30
18	Somalia	47.9	—	36	48	37	95	36
19	Nicaragua	47.8	—	39	52	35	72	48
20	Equatorial Guinea	47.7	—	29	7	100	84	40
21	Cuba	47.3	—	39	72	28	45	—
22	Congo - Kinshasa	46.6	—	20	54	51	84	36
23	Pakistan	45.7	—	41	48	31	49	66
24	Moldova	45.4	—	68	38	25	52	39
25	Chad	44.5	—	41	9	87	73	25
26	Angola	44.4	—	37	11	80	53	57
27	Tunisia	43.9	—	47	39	36	42	59
28	Zimbabwe	43.8	—	53	20	29	60	72
29	Kazakhstan	42.6	—	33	28	59	49	55
30	Kuwait	41.6	—	43	22	81	39	21
31	Turkmenistan	41.5	—	37	8	71	65	—
32	Palestinian Territories	41.4	—	—	20	33	53	77
33	Türkiye	41.0	—	32	57	18	39	62
34	Haiti	40.6	—	33	40	32	64	44
35	Burkina Faso	40.4	—	57	8	43	59	45
36	Guinea-Bissau	40.4	—	31	35	45	67	33
37	Bahrain	40.1	—	60	19	32	43	51
38	Burundi	40.0	—	61	10	41	57	37
39	Georgia	40.0	—	65	28	17	33	54
40	Jordan	40.0	—	59	30	32	36	40
41	Zambia	39.9	—	46	7	40	57	68
42	Ethiopia	38.9	—	48	10	39	56	54
43	Mongolia	38.8	—	49	7	46	46	59
44	Tajikistan	38.7	—	51	16	34	56	46
45	United Arab Emirates	38.2	—	44	50	44	19	20
46	Guinea	38.2	—	33	28	35	77	30
47	Djibouti	38.1	—	68	8	8	73	43
48	North Macedonia	38.1	—	61	22	27	45	35
49	Mauritania	37.9	—	50	12	42	50	44
50	El Salvador	37.9	—	39	12	34	76	47
51	Jamaica	37.8	—	49	12	30	57	54
52	Kyrgyzstan	37.5	—	49	26	30	48	37
53	Maldives	37.5	—	42	20	49	46	36
54	Azerbaijan	37.4	—	39	17	64	46	24
55	Liberia	37.4	—	38	16	39	57	52
56	Nigeria	37.3	—	21	15	61	67	40
57	Mexico	37.1	—	19	42	33	64	38
58	Panama	37.1	—	33	31	32	48	50
59	Malaysia	37.0	—	47	42	28	25	37
60	Armenia	36.8	—	54	28	21	37	44
61	Honduras	36.8	—	42	21	33	68	30
62	Saudi Arabia	36.6	—	29	31	68	36	18
63	Oman	36.3	—	26	26	67	33	34
64	Bulgaria	36.1	—	56	33	16	37	34
65	Qatar	36.0	—	38	19	72	22	28
66	Singapore	36.0	—	62	45	31	1	21
67	Guyana	35.9	—	44	10	41	57	38
68	India	35.9	—	37	43	28	32	37
69	Guatemala	35.7	—	34	28	29	67	30
70	Congo - Brazzaville	35.6	—	25	8	70	55	34
71	Morocco	35.5	—	44	19	34	50	35
72	China	35.2	—	21	58	33	34	26
73	Uzbekistan	35.1	—	34	26	34	58	30
74	Lesotho	35.0	—	49	0	46	59	31
75	Gabon	34.9	—	30	0	59	71	34
76	Sri Lanka	34.8	—	41	13	30	38	65
77	Bosnia & Herzegovina	34.6	—	33	33	27	53	32
78	Algeria	34.6	—	22	18	76	42	19
79	Colombia	34.2	—	16	27	43	55	45
80	Seychelles	34.2	—	58	15	36	29	29
81	Paraguay	33.9	—	36	16	37	56	33
82	Dominican Republic	33.8	—	40	17	27	55	38
83	Laos	33.8	—	37	14	26	57	49
84	Malawi	33.6	—	41	0	47	53	40
85	Argentina	33.4	—	14	24	31	44	75
86	Gambia	33.3	—	29	22	28	66	33
87	South Africa	33.0	—	19	36	19	51	52
88	Bolivia	32.9	—	41	11	38	52	30
89	Brazil	32.9	—	16	24	29	65	49
90	Uganda	32.9	—	44	21	21	48	35
91	Niger	32.8	—	36	17	31	53	35
92	Vietnam	32.8	—	34	22	36	44	35
93	Belize	32.6	—	21	15	43	66	34
94	Cambodia	32.6	—	30	20	45	50	23
95	Slovakia	32.6	—	42	18	39	29	37
96	São Tomé & Príncipe	32.6	—	32	0	58	44	44
97	Malta	32.1	—	51	28	35	19	17
98	Kenya	32.0	—	28	24	27	42	48
99	Comoros	32.0	—	23	7	44	80	24
100	Romania	32.0	—	37	17	35	35	41
101	Cyprus	31.9	—	41	40	20	21	30
102	Kosovo	31.9	—	—	22	—	48	32
103	Philippines	31.8	—	28	27	37	45	27
104	Israel	31.7	—	29	34	46	21	25
105	Mozambique	31.5	—	29	9	36	49	50
106	Bangladesh	31.4	—	29	13	42	45	39
107	Belgium	31.4	—	41	34	28	13	34
108	Ecuador	31.4	—	24	18	40	39	49
109	Greece	31.3	—	44	28	16	31	35
110	Brunei	31.0	—	41	0	76	18	19
111	Egypt	30.9	—	24	28	21	44	47
112	Hungary	30.8	—	37	14	36	29	44
113	Montenegro	30.8	—	29	17	24	39	58
114	Serbia	30.5	—	34	37	5	42	37
115	Rwanda	30.4	—	43	18	24	33	38
116	Suriname	30.3	—	21	8	40	45	56
117	Thailand	30.2	—	31	33	29	36	20
118	Italy	30.1	—	29	29	30	29	35
119	Senegal	29.9	—	46	12	22	29	46
120	South Korea	29.8	—	39	21	38	15	34
121	Sierra Leone	29.8	—	22	10	37	48	48
122	Madagascar	29.4	—	38	4	26	60	31
123	Netherlands	29.3	—	44	37	23	3	28
124	Cameroon	29.2	—	29	6	30	64	31
125	Papua New Guinea	29.2	—	30	0	39	56	38
126	United Kingdom	29.1	—	14	48	33	8	38
127	Eswatini	29.1	—	37	0	35	59	28
128	Costa Rica	29.0	—	29	19	31	34	39
129	Botswana	28.9	—	39	0	55	33	21
130	Indonesia	28.8	—	16	34	24	38	38
131	France	28.7	—	19	39	34	13	36
132	Tanzania	28.7	—	26	12	30	55	34
133	Namibia	28.6	—	36	12	17	40	49
134	Ireland	28.4	—	26	24	41	8	44
135	Trinidad & Tobago	28.4	—	28	9	35	59	23
136	Spain	28.3	—	27	34	21	20	37
137	Timor-Leste	28.2	—	25	0	66	47	12
138	Chile	28.0	—	29	15	31	23	49
139	Nepal	28.0	—	46	0	25	47	29
140	Cape Verde	27.9	—	34	4	46	26	35
141	Germany	27.9	—	24	45	31	3	26
142	Mauritius	27.8	—	40	6	33	22	43
143	Solomon Islands	27.8	—	27	0	52	54	17
144	Benin	27.7	—	33	10	34	40	28
145	Bahamas	27.2	—	32	9	28	41	36
146	Côte d’Ivoire	27.0	—	24	9	32	49	34
147	Albania	26.7	—	27	19	14	46	37
148	Poland	26.6	—	25	18	32	24	40
149	Bhutan	26.5	—	53	0	32	17	30
150	Ghana	26.3	—	17	7	32	34	59
151	Latvia	26.2	—	32	22	21	23	32
152	Palau	26.2	—	26	9	41	31	30
153	Togo	26.2	—	27	4	28	61	25
154	Lithuania	25.8	—	43	14	21	20	30
155	United States	25.7	—	4	44	24	20	38
156	Slovenia	25.5	—	42	10	33	16	24
157	Dominica	25.3	—	13	11	30	44	45
158	Canada	25.2	—	7	41	26	3	50
159	Japan	25.2	—	29	27	37	4	21
160	Czechia	25.1	—	29	15	38	17	26
161	Fiji	24.9	—	34	3	29	27	39
162	Austria	24.6	—	24	28	32	5	29
163	Croatia	24.4	—	31	10	26	30	29
164	Peru	24.4	—	22	19	27	37	22
165	St Lucia	24.1	—	16	3	44	46	27
166	Barbados	24.0	—	22	6	23	31	51
167	Sweden	23.9	—	17	32	26	2	42
168	Estonia	23.7	—	24	29	24	11	28
169	Portugal	23.7	—	28	12	31	16	34
170	Micronesia	23.2	—	29	0	49	27	13
171	Uruguay	23.1	—	26	6	30	23	40
172	Switzerland	22.6	—	22	40	21	0	19
173	St Kitts & Nevis	22.2	—	2	14	42	45	21
174	Finland	21.9	—	20	35	18	2	29
175	Luxembourg	21.7	—	28	24	29	0	20
176	Australia	21.5	—	9	17	34	4	52
177	Grenada	21.5	—	16	0	37	40	27
178	St Vincent & the Grenadines	21.0	—	13	6	37	36	24
179	Vanuatu	21.0	—	16	8	37	36	16
180	Norway	20.6	—	9	21	38	1	36
181	New Zealand	20.5	—	12	13	33	2	48
182	Antigua & Barbuda	20.0	—	5	4	39	33	33
183	Tuvalu	18.5	—	7	0	—	42	45
184	Denmark	18.3	—	17	13	30	2	31
185	Tonga	17.9	—	16	0	32	33	17
186	Samoa	17.6	—	16	3	31	22	23
187	Nauru	17.4	—	13	0	27	39	19
188	Kiribati	17.1	—	14	0	35	33	11
189	Iceland	15.6	—	20	3	21	2	37
190	Andorra	13.2	—	—	0	42	5	5
191	Marshall Islands	12.1	—	4	20	1	34	5
192	San Marino	7.7	—	—	3	—	9	15
—	North Korea	insufficient data	—	—	75	—	85	—
—	Liechtenstein	insufficient data	—	—	17	—	3	—
—	Monaco	insufficient data	—	—	6	—	2	—
—	Taiwan	insufficient data	—	—	32	—	—	—
—	Vatican City	insufficient data	—	—	0	—	—	—

Movers

First edition: no change against a previous edition.

Sub-indices

The ten most exposed countries in each sub-index

Chokepoints concentrate the risk of small, open economies

68.2

68.2

65.4

64.5

62.4

61.6

61.4

61.4

60.9

60.8

Source: Intelrift, IGE · ChokepointsData through 31 December 2019

Sanctions weigh on jurisdictions under a regime and on their partners

100.0

90.0

87.0

78.2

77.6

75.0

74.6

73.7

73.6

71.8

Source: Intelrift, IGE · SanctionsData through 31 December 2019

Commodity concentration punishes single-product exporters

100.0

86.7

81.4

79.5

79.3

79.2

76.4

76.4

71.8

71.3

Source: Intelrift, IGE · Commodity concentrationData through 31 December 2019

Institutional fragility follows political violence

100.0

97.7

95.2

86.6

85.8

85.4

84.2

83.5

Central African Republic

83.1

South Sudan

82.1

Source: Intelrift, IGE · Institutional fragilityData through 31 December 2019

Sovereign stress shows in reserves, inflation and the currency

Sudan

77.0

Palestinian Territories

76.6

74.7

71.9

71.6

68.5

68.3

66.4

64.9

62.2

Source: Intelrift, IGE · Sovereign stressData through 31 December 2019

How to read the index

Three things to know before reading a figure

It measures exposure, not prediction.

The IGE measures how much structural damage an economy would suffer from a route closure, tighter sanctions, a swing in its commodities, an institutional crisis or an episode of sovereign stress. It does not say when anything will happen.

The scale is relative to the edition.

Each input is placed between the 5th and 95th percentiles of countries with data and scaled to 0–100. A 70 means being among the most exposed countries in the world in this edition, not 70% of anything.

What is missing is visible.

When a country lacks data for a sub-index it shows as "insufficient data" and the index is computed from the others with renormalised weights. Nothing is filled with a zero or an estimate.

Bands of the scaleMinimal 0–20Low 20–30Moderate 30–40Elevated 40–50High 50–60Severe 60+Bands are for reading the map and the table; the computation works with the continuous figure.

Calibration

Calibration: coming soon

Every edition leaves a public record of its scores and hash. Once there is enough history, the index's calibrated accuracy against real stress episodes will be published here.

Use the index

Download, reproduce or integrate the index

PDF in preparation

Retrospective 2019

Read the methodology

ige-v1

API access

GET /api/v1/geo-index · CSV

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