Geoeconomic Index · quarterly · public

GeoeconomicIndex.

Retrospective 2020Published on 19 October 2026Data through 31 December 2020Scale 0–100 · higher means more riskBack to the index

How much geoeconomic risk each economy carries: exposure to route closures, sanctions, dependence on a few commodities, institutional fragility and stress in its sovereign markets. Transparent, reproducible and falsifiable.

Three findings of the edition

Iraq leads the edition with 64.2 points; Sanctions accounts for 29% of its score.
The biggest riser is Syria: +5.9 points on the previous edition, driven by sanctions.
Malacca is the main chokepoint for 70 countries; 21 of them have more than 10% of GDP exposed to its closure.

Geoeconomic risk, country by country

Source: Intelrift, IGEData through 31 December 2020

Hover to see the score. Click to open the country page.

Ranking

Every country, sortable

192 / 197


1	Iraq	64.2	+1.7	64	75	79	71	21
2	Venezuela	63.6	+2.0	20	74	70	97	78
3	Afghanistan	58.7	+0.4	67	78	32	86	21
4	Syria	58.7	+5.9	61	78	27	87	39
5	Iran	58.0	0.0	30	100	53	57	42
6	Belarus	56.6	+2.1	54	87	26	57	51
7	South Sudan	56.5	−12.2	26	59	—	82	78
8	Libya	56.3	−2.9	32	64	72	90	30
9	Yemen	55.6	+0.5	47	47	58	82	56
10	Sudan	54.0	+1.5	44	50	44	68	77
11	Somalia	52.5	+4.6	38	48	46	96	48
12	Lebanon	51.3	+0.9	52	65	26	54	58
13	Congo - Kinshasa	51.2	+4.6	22	54	60	87	47
14	Mali	50.4	+2.4	57	36	59	78	25
15	Eritrea	49.6	−0.6	62	11	67	75	45
16	Russia	48.4	+0.2	19	90	45	50	30
17	Myanmar (Burma)	47.8	−1.8	40	74	30	55	35
18	Central African Republic	47.5	−1.9	50	46	42	86	16
19	Ukraine	47.3	−1.6	58	55	27	45	47
20	Cuba	46.8	−0.5	40	72	26	45	—
21	Equatorial Guinea	45.7	−2.0	24	7	96	85	39
22	Moldova	45.2	−0.2	67	38	30	51	35
23	Angola	45.0	+0.6	34	11	80	54	65
24	Nicaragua	45.0	−2.8	37	52	37	58	43
25	Turkmenistan	44.2	+2.7	38	8	82	66	—
26	Chad	43.4	−1.1	39	9	84	75	22
27	Pakistan	43.1	−2.6	40	48	28	48	55
28	Zimbabwe	42.5	−1.3	50	20	29	60	68
29	Ethiopia	42.4	+3.5	45	10	44	74	57
30	Zambia	42.4	+2.5	43	7	56	59	66
31	Türkiye	42.1	+1.1	33	57	19	40	66
32	Burkina Faso	41.8	+1.4	58	8	55	61	34
33	Palestinian Territories	41.7	+0.3	—	20	33	55	77
34	Kazakhstan	41.4	−1.2	33	28	55	49	51
35	Kuwait	41.3	−0.3	43	22	81	40	19
36	Tunisia	41.3	−2.6	45	39	35	41	48
37	Burundi	41.2	+1.2	59	10	46	58	41
38	Guinea-Bissau	41.0	+0.6	32	35	49	66	32
39	Azerbaijan	40.6	+3.2	36	17	69	63	28
40	Haiti	40.5	−0.1	33	40	31	70	37
41	Georgia	40.2	+0.2	66	28	17	34	55
42	Guinea	39.9	+1.7	39	28	37	81	26
43	Kyrgyzstan	39.5	+2.0	52	26	36	50	36
44	Liberia	39.2	+1.8	45	16	48	58	39
45	Nigeria	39.0	+1.7	22	15	61	68	49
46	Oman	38.9	+2.6	33	26	62	35	43
47	Bahrain	38.8	−1.3	55	19	28	44	54
48	Jordan	38.7	−1.3	54	30	28	36	44
49	Armenia	38.1	+1.3	56	28	23	35	48
50	United Arab Emirates	37.7	−0.5	44	50	39	21	22
51	Guyana	37.7	+1.8	45	10	51	60	32
52	North Macedonia	37.7	−0.4	62	22	28	44	32
53	Maldives	37.7	+0.2	42	20	49	42	40
54	Mexico	37.5	+0.4	17	42	34	64	43
55	Malaysia	37.4	+0.4	47	42	30	24	38
56	Mongolia	37.1	−1.7	49	7	46	46	46
57	Seychelles	37.1	+2.9	55	15	40	28	49
58	Djibouti	36.9	−1.2	68	8	6	74	37
59	Qatar	36.9	+0.9	38	19	73	21	33
60	Saudi Arabia	36.9	+0.3	27	31	65	36	27
61	El Salvador	36.9	−1.0	35	12	35	70	50
62	Tajikistan	36.6	−2.1	53	16	29	54	37
63	Jamaica	36.2	−1.6	45	12	26	57	54
64	Gambia	36.0	+2.7	30	22	42	65	32
65	Panama	35.9	−1.2	31	31	29	49	49
66	Honduras	35.8	−1.0	40	21	32	68	28
67	Uzbekistan	35.8	+0.7	35	26	36	58	31
68	Dominican Republic	35.7	+1.9	39	17	33	53	47
69	India	35.7	−0.2	36	43	27	33	37
70	Suriname	35.7	+5.4	28	8	54	47	61
71	Singapore	35.5	−0.5	59	45	32	1	21
72	Lesotho	35.4	+0.4	50	0	46	59	32
73	Mauritania	35.3	−2.6	49	12	36	50	36
74	Algeria	35.2	+0.6	21	18	78	42	24
75	Bulgaria	34.9	−1.2	52	33	17	40	27
76	Congo - Brazzaville	34.8	−0.8	27	8	67	56	28
77	China	34.8	−0.4	20	58	35	34	23
78	Gabon	34.8	−0.1	28	0	59	71	35
79	Paraguay	34.8	+0.9	36	16	44	55	30
80	Guatemala	34.7	−1.0	31	28	31	63	30
81	Mozambique	34.2	+2.7	25	9	37	68	54
82	Niger	33.8	+1.0	36	17	32	60	35
83	Morocco	33.6	−1.9	43	19	29	50	31
84	Vietnam	33.6	+0.8	36	22	38	44	33
85	Brazil	33.5	+0.6	15	24	30	65	53
86	Malawi	33.4	−0.2	41	0	46	50	43
87	Bosnia & Herzegovina	33.3	−1.3	30	33	29	53	25
88	South Africa	33.3	+0.3	18	36	22	51	50
89	Sri Lanka	33.2	−1.6	38	13	27	39	62
90	Uganda	33.2	+0.3	42	21	22	48	39
91	Colombia	32.9	−1.3	14	27	40	53	45
92	Laos	32.8	−1.0	36	14	25	56	45
93	Argentina	32.7	−0.7	13	24	32	45	69
94	Cambodia	32.3	−0.3	38	20	34	50	23
95	Comoros	32.3	+0.3	28	7	43	82	19
96	Bolivia	32.1	−0.8	39	11	37	50	31
97	Belize	32.0	−0.6	17	15	48	63	33
98	Cyprus	31.7	−0.2	40	40	22	25	24
99	Kenya	31.7	−0.3	26	24	28	43	48
100	Montenegro	31.4	+0.6	28	17	26	40	60
101	Kosovo	31.3	−0.6	—	22	—	49	28
102	Bangladesh	30.9	−0.5	30	13	40	46	36
103	Romania	30.9	−1.1	36	17	36	36	34
104	Philippines	30.8	−1.0	26	27	37	44	24
105	Malta	30.7	−1.4	46	28	40	20	8
106	Thailand	30.7	+0.5	32	33	29	37	21
107	Brunei	30.5	−0.5	40	0	71	16	26
108	Slovakia	30.4	−2.2	40	18	39	28	27
109	Egypt	30.3	−0.6	20	28	21	44	51
110	Belgium	30.2	−1.2	40	34	29	14	26
111	Greece	30.1	−1.2	43	28	15	32	30
112	Hungary	30.1	−0.7	36	14	36	29	41
113	São Tomé & Príncipe	30.1	−2.5	29	0	58	44	31
114	Israel	30.0	−1.7	22	34	45	24	24
115	Cape Verde	29.8	+1.9	34	4	50	28	39
116	Serbia	29.8	−0.7	33	37	5	44	30
117	Rwanda	29.8	−0.6	40	18	22	32	41
118	Ecuador	29.7	−1.7	22	18	37	40	42
119	Sierra Leone	29.7	−0.1	24	10	40	49	40
120	Senegal	29.5	−0.4	45	12	23	30	43
121	Eswatini	29.4	+0.3	36	0	35	60	30
122	Botswana	29.3	+0.4	40	0	55	32	24
123	Chile	29.3	+1.3	28	15	37	26	48
124	Timor-Leste	29.2	+1.0	23	0	71	48	15
125	Madagascar	28.8	−0.6	34	4	30	60	28
126	Costa Rica	28.7	−0.3	26	19	32	33	41
127	Papua New Guinea	28.7	−0.5	29	0	40	54	36
128	Netherlands	28.6	−0.7	43	37	25	3	20
129	Mauritius	28.5	+0.7	40	6	32	22	50
130	South Korea	28.3	−1.5	36	21	38	14	31
131	Albania	28.2	+1.5	28	19	19	47	38
132	Indonesia	28.2	−0.6	15	34	23	37	38
133	Italy	28.2	−1.9	27	29	30	29	27
134	Solomon Islands	28.1	+0.3	28	0	56	52	14
135	Nepal	28.0	0.0	45	0	29	46	27
136	Namibia	27.9	−0.7	35	12	16	41	46
137	Cameroon	27.7	−1.5	27	6	28	65	28
138	Tanzania	27.7	−1.0	24	12	34	46	34
139	France	27.4	−1.3	17	39	35	14	30
140	Trinidad & Tobago	27.4	−1.0	19	9	36	59	30
141	Benin	27.0	−0.7	33	10	35	40	22
142	Côte d’Ivoire	27.0	0.0	25	9	31	52	32
143	Germany	27.0	−0.9	23	45	32	5	19
144	Spain	26.8	−1.5	25	34	22	21	30
145	Palau	26.8	+0.6	28	9	40	32	32
146	United Kingdom	26.7	−2.4	12	48	29	9	33
147	Poland	26.4	−0.2	24	18	34	25	35
148	Togo	26.3	+0.1	26	4	32	60	22
149	Bahamas	26.0	−1.2	29	9	25	38	40
150	United States	26.0	+0.3	3	44	24	25	39
151	Bhutan	25.8	−0.7	50	0	29	19	31
152	Ireland	25.8	−2.6	25	24	40	9	28
153	Dominica	25.7	+0.4	10	11	35	46	43
154	Antigua & Barbuda	25.5	+5.5	17	4	41	41	39
155	Ghana	25.2	−1.1	16	7	34	34	50
156	Peru	25.1	+0.7	18	19	32	37	26
157	St Vincent & the Grenadines	25.1	+4.1	14	6	44	43	33
158	Czechia	25.0	−0.1	29	15	39	18	23
159	Slovenia	24.8	−0.7	40	10	37	18	15
160	Japan	24.7	−0.5	27	27	36	4	23
161	Latvia	24.7	−1.5	32	22	23	23	20
162	Canada	24.6	−0.6	6	41	24	6	48
163	Fiji	24.4	−0.5	33	3	24	30	41
164	Micronesia	23.8	+0.6	32	0	48	26	16
165	Croatia	23.8	−0.6	31	10	27	30	25
166	Uruguay	23.7	+0.6	26	6	33	21	41
167	Lithuania	23.6	−2.2	40	14	23	18	19
168	Estonia	23.2	−0.5	25	29	24	11	22
169	St Lucia	23.0	−1.1	13	3	33	48	35
170	Barbados	22.8	−1.2	18	6	25	30	48
171	Austria	22.6	−2.0	21	28	31	5	22
172	Sweden	22.5	−1.4	16	32	27	2	33
173	Grenada	22.1	+0.6	15	0	39	38	33
174	Portugal	22.0	−1.7	26	12	31	16	28
175	Switzerland	21.9	−0.7	22	40	17	1	19
176	St Kitts & Nevis	21.8	−0.4	3	14	41	41	22
177	Vanuatu	21.8	+0.8	17	8	37	35	19
178	Australia	20.5	−1.0	6	17	35	5	46
179	Luxembourg	20.3	−1.4	25	24	30	0	15
180	Norway	20.1	−0.5	9	21	38	0	33
181	Finland	20.0	−1.9	18	35	18	1	21
182	New Zealand	19.9	−0.6	11	13	34	1	46
183	Denmark	18.0	−0.3	17	13	32	2	26
184	Samoa	17.9	+0.3	17	3	30	22	25
185	Nauru	17.3	−0.1	5	0	40	39	14
186	Tonga	17.2	−0.7	15	0	32	30	16
187	Kiribati	16.6	−0.5	15	0	38	30	6
188	Iceland	14.9	−0.7	17	3	23	2	34
189	Andorra	14.3	+1.1	—	0	45	6	6
190	Marshall Islands	12.9	+0.8	5	20	0	37	7
191	Tuvalu	12.5	−6.0	8	0	—	43	11
192	San Marino	6.1	−1.6	—	3	—	9	9
—	North Korea	insufficient data	—	—	75	—	86	—
—	Liechtenstein	insufficient data	—	—	17	—	3	—
—	Monaco	insufficient data	—	—	6	—	7	—
—	Taiwan	insufficient data	—	—	32	—	—	—
—	Vatican City	insufficient data	—	—	0	—	—	—

Movers

Biggest risers

Syria58.7+5.9
Antigua & Barbuda25.5+5.5
Suriname35.7+5.4
Somalia52.5+4.6
Congo - Kinshasa51.2+4.6

Biggest fallers

South Sudan56.5−12.2
Tuvalu12.5−6.0
Libya56.3−2.9
Nicaragua45.0−2.8
Pakistan43.1−2.6

Change in points against the previous published edition. (Edition 2019 · 2019)

Sub-indices

The ten most exposed countries in each sub-index

Chokepoints concentrate the risk of small, open economies

68.2

67.2

66.8

66.0

64.0

62.2

61.8

60.5

58.8

58.6

Source: Intelrift, IGE · ChokepointsData through 31 December 2020

Sanctions weigh on jurisdictions under a regime and on their partners

100.0

90.0

87.0

78.2

77.6

75.0

74.6

73.7

73.6

71.8

Source: Intelrift, IGE · SanctionsData through 31 December 2020

Commodity concentration punishes single-product exporters

96.4

83.9

81.8

80.6

79.7

79.4

77.6

72.9

71.9

71.4

Source: Intelrift, IGE · Commodity concentrationData through 31 December 2020

Institutional fragility follows political violence

97.3

96.0

89.6

87.3

86.7

Central African Republic

85.8

85.8

85.5

84.8

81.7

Source: Intelrift, IGE · Institutional fragilityData through 31 December 2020

Sovereign stress shows in reserves, inflation and the currency

Venezuela

78.3

South Sudan

78.0

Sudan

77.1

Palestinian Territories

76.6

69.0

68.2

66.3

66.1

64.9

61.8

Source: Intelrift, IGE · Sovereign stressData through 31 December 2020

How to read the index

Three things to know before reading a figure

It measures exposure, not prediction.

The IGE measures how much structural damage an economy would suffer from a route closure, tighter sanctions, a swing in its commodities, an institutional crisis or an episode of sovereign stress. It does not say when anything will happen.

The scale is relative to the edition.

Each input is placed between the 5th and 95th percentiles of countries with data and scaled to 0–100. A 70 means being among the most exposed countries in the world in this edition, not 70% of anything.

What is missing is visible.

When a country lacks data for a sub-index it shows as "insufficient data" and the index is computed from the others with renormalised weights. Nothing is filled with a zero or an estimate.

Bands of the scaleMinimal 0–20Low 20–30Moderate 30–40Elevated 40–50High 50–60Severe 60+Bands are for reading the map and the table; the computation works with the continuous figure.

Calibration

Calibration: coming soon

Every edition leaves a public record of its scores and hash. Once there is enough history, the index's calibrated accuracy against real stress episodes will be published here.

Use the index

Download, reproduce or integrate the index

PDF in preparation

Retrospective 2020

Read the methodology

ige-v1

API access

GET /api/v1/geo-index · CSV

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