Geoeconomic Index · quarterly · public

GeoeconomicIndex.

Retrospective 2021Published on 19 October 2026Data through 31 December 2021Scale 0–100 · higher means more riskBack to the index

How much geoeconomic risk each economy carries: exposure to route closures, sanctions, dependence on a few commodities, institutional fragility and stress in its sovereign markets. Transparent, reproducible and falsifiable.

Three findings of the edition

Iraq leads the edition with 63.8 points; Sanctions accounts for 29% of its score.
The biggest riser is Libya: +6.2 points on the previous edition, driven by sanctions.
Malacca is the main chokepoint for 70 countries; 20 of them have more than 10% of GDP exposed to its closure.

Geoeconomic risk, country by country

Source: Intelrift, IGEData through 31 December 2021

Hover to see the score. Click to open the country page.

Ranking

Every country, sortable

192 / 197


1	Iraq	63.8	−0.4	63	75	79	69	23
2	Libya	62.5	+6.2	50	64	78	89	33
3	Venezuela	59.9	−3.7	17	74	63	89	75
4	Afghanistan	57.6	−1.1	65	78	28	84	24
5	Iran	57.0	−1.0	28	100	50	55	45
6	South Sudan	55.5	−1.0	26	59	—	83	72
7	Yemen	55.3	−0.3	48	47	54	84	56
8	Syria	54.5	−4.2	50	78	23	81	38
9	Sudan	53.5	−0.5	39	50	38	75	84
10	Myanmar (Burma)	53.1	+5.3	41	74	31	83	38
11	Belarus	53.0	−3.6	51	87	13	57	48
12	Lebanon	52.6	+1.3	58	65	23	54	62
13	Ukraine	49.4	+2.1	60	55	33	44	51
14	Mali	49.0	−1.4	52	36	52	79	32
15	Congo - Kinshasa	48.7	−2.5	23	54	57	85	35
16	Cuba	48.0	+1.2	44	72	26	46	—
17	Russia	47.9	−0.5	20	90	46	49	26
18	Moldova	46.8	+1.6	72	38	30	47	42
19	Central African Republic	46.6	−0.9	42	46	36	95	22
20	Nicaragua	46.5	+1.5	46	52	32	59	45
21	Eritrea	45.6	−4.0	54	11	56	73	49
22	Somalia	45.4	−7.1	35	48	28	98	29
23	Palestinian Territories	44.4	+2.7	—	20	33	69	77
24	Pakistan	43.8	+0.7	44	48	27	47	57
25	Angola	43.6	−1.4	37	11	79	53	52
26	Chad	43.5	+0.1	38	9	78	76	31
27	Equatorial Guinea	43.2	−2.5	23	7	89	84	35
28	Türkiye	42.8	+0.7	35	57	19	39	68
29	Djibouti	42.3	+5.4	58	8	31	74	57
30	Ethiopia	42.3	−0.1	42	10	41	78	63
31	Turkmenistan	42.3	−1.9	38	8	73	66	—
32	Tunisia	42.1	+0.8	44	39	33	42	55
33	Kazakhstan	41.5	+0.1	32	28	58	47	51
34	Zimbabwe	41.4	−1.1	47	20	29	60	66
35	Burkina Faso	41.3	−0.5	58	8	53	64	32
36	Kyrgyzstan	41.3	+1.8	54	26	33	54	43
37	Zambia	41.3	−1.1	43	7	57	56	59
38	Kuwait	41.2	−0.1	43	22	80	38	22
39	Nigeria	40.9	+1.9	30	15	62	68	48
40	Azerbaijan	39.9	−0.7	36	17	78	48	25
41	Panama	39.8	+3.9	39	31	35	48	55
42	Haiti	39.6	−0.9	30	40	29	74	35
43	Guinea-Bissau	39.5	−1.5	31	35	42	65	33
44	Georgia	39.4	−0.8	64	28	15	34	56
45	Jordan	39.0	+0.3	57	30	24	37	47
46	North Macedonia	39.0	+1.3	65	22	28	42	37
47	Armenia	38.7	+0.6	57	28	23	36	51
48	Mongolia	38.4	+1.3	48	7	52	46	50
49	El Salvador	38.4	+1.5	39	12	33	68	57
50	Guinea	38.3	−1.6	37	28	32	79	27
51	Guyana	37.9	+0.2	41	10	56	54	40
52	Oman	37.8	−1.1	35	26	56	35	42
53	Malaysia	37.7	+0.3	47	42	27	25	43
54	Burundi	37.6	−3.6	57	10	34	55	38
55	Mexico	36.8	−0.7	19	42	31	63	41
56	Honduras	36.5	+0.7	41	21	29	69	33
57	Maldives	36.5	−1.2	41	20	45	38	45
58	Dominican Republic	36.1	+0.4	41	17	38	50	42
59	Jamaica	36.1	−0.1	48	12	24	57	52
60	Qatar	36.1	−0.8	38	19	72	20	30
61	Singapore	36.0	+0.5	60	45	31	1	23
62	Liberia	35.6	−3.6	39	16	47	56	28
63	Seychelles	35.6	−1.5	57	15	40	24	40
64	India	35.4	−0.3	37	43	24	33	37
65	United Arab Emirates	35.3	−2.4	39	50	30	21	26
66	Sri Lanka	35.3	+2.1	39	13	29	41	69
67	Bulgaria	35.2	+0.3	54	33	16	39	30
68	Saudi Arabia	35.2	−1.7	28	31	58	34	25
69	Uzbekistan	35.1	−0.7	35	26	37	51	31
70	Guatemala	35.0	+0.3	34	28	28	62	31
71	Mauritania	35.0	−0.3	49	12	39	49	31
72	Paraguay	34.9	+0.1	38	16	41	56	32
73	Bahrain	34.8	−4.0	43	19	28	39	53
74	Algeria	34.7	−0.5	21	18	74	42	25
75	Tajikistan	34.7	−1.9	53	16	25	49	33
76	Mozambique	34.5	+0.3	28	9	38	62	57
77	Morocco	34.2	+0.6	45	19	27	49	35
78	Bolivia	34.1	+2.0	46	11	35	49	36
79	Belize	34.0	+2.0	20	15	44	64	45
80	Vietnam	34.0	+0.4	35	22	38	43	38
81	China	33.9	−0.9	20	58	31	34	21
82	Comoros	33.9	+1.6	43	7	33	82	18
83	Malawi	33.9	+0.5	41	0	45	49	50
84	Lesotho	33.7	−1.7	51	0	40	59	27
85	Papua New Guinea	33.7	+5.0	29	0	55	56	47
86	Bosnia & Herzegovina	33.5	+0.2	32	33	25	53	29
87	Congo - Brazzaville	33.5	−1.3	25	8	60	55	34
88	Cambodia	33.4	+1.1	38	20	32	49	34
89	Laos	33.4	+0.6	36	14	27	55	48
90	Niger	33.3	−0.5	36	17	28	57	39
91	Suriname	33.1	−2.6	21	8	50	45	62
92	Colombia	33.0	+0.1	15	27	37	55	46
93	Uganda	32.9	−0.3	43	21	19	46	41
94	Brunei	32.5	+2.0	43	0	79	16	23
95	Gabon	32.4	−2.4	24	0	54	70	34
96	Gambia	32.4	−3.6	38	22	27	47	33
97	Philippines	32.4	+1.6	29	27	35	44	32
98	Argentina	32.3	−0.4	15	24	29	45	67
99	South Africa	32.3	−1.0	20	36	20	52	43
100	Bangladesh	32.2	+1.3	31	13	40	45	44
101	Thailand	32.2	+1.5	34	33	28	36	29
102	Brazil	32.1	−1.4	17	24	31	51	52
103	Kenya	32.0	+0.3	28	24	26	43	50
104	Cyprus	31.9	+0.2	41	40	20	24	27
105	Romania	31.7	+0.8	39	17	34	33	40
106	Egypt	31.5	+1.2	22	28	19	42	60
107	Kosovo	31.2	−0.1	—	22	—	46	32
108	Serbia	31.1	+1.3	36	37	5	44	34
109	Slovakia	31.0	+0.6	41	18	38	25	33
110	Greece	30.9	+0.8	46	28	14	29	35
111	Montenegro	30.9	−0.5	29	17	23	40	59
112	Costa Rica	30.8	+2.1	30	19	31	32	51
113	Belgium	30.5	+0.3	44	34	27	9	29
114	Hungary	30.3	+0.2	37	14	36	28	44
115	Malta	30.3	−0.4	44	28	37	18	14
116	Timor-Leste	30.1	+0.9	22	0	79	46	14
117	Chile	30.0	+0.7	30	15	41	24	46
118	Israel	30.0	0.0	20	34	42	26	29
119	Cape Verde	29.9	+0.1	34	4	50	28	41
120	Senegal	29.9	+0.4	46	12	20	29	48
121	São Tomé & Príncipe	29.6	−0.5	29	0	54	43	35
122	Nepal	29.4	+1.4	47	0	28	45	36
123	Ecuador	29.3	−0.4	24	18	34	41	41
124	Italy	29.3	+1.1	31	29	29	26	33
125	Rwanda	29.0	−0.8	39	18	18	32	43
126	Indonesia	28.9	+0.7	18	34	23	38	38
127	South Korea	28.8	+0.5	38	21	34	13	37
128	Eswatini	28.5	−0.9	37	0	31	63	25
129	Madagascar	28.4	−0.4	37	4	24	59	29
130	Mauritius	28.4	−0.1	41	6	28	23	53
131	Bahamas	28.3	+2.3	29	9	26	42	50
132	Cameroon	28.3	+0.6	24	6	31	64	33
133	Trinidad & Tobago	28.3	+0.9	19	9	43	58	27
134	Netherlands	28.1	−0.5	43	37	22	3	21
135	Sierra Leone	28.0	−1.7	22	10	35	48	38
136	France	27.9	+0.5	19	39	33	13	33
137	Tanzania	27.9	+0.2	26	12	31	45	38
138	Benin	27.8	+0.8	30	10	36	40	31
139	Botswana	27.8	−1.5	39	0	50	31	22
140	Spain	27.8	+1.0	28	34	20	20	35
141	Namibia	27.8	−0.1	35	12	17	39	45
142	Peru	27.8	+2.7	23	19	34	38	32
143	Germany	27.6	+0.6	24	45	30	4	24
144	United States	27.3	+1.3	4	44	24	23	46
145	Slovenia	27.2	+2.4	46	10	36	17	22
146	Poland	27.1	+0.7	25	18	33	26	40
147	Bhutan	26.7	+0.9	49	0	32	19	34
148	United Kingdom	26.5	−0.2	16	48	21	9	34
149	Togo	26.2	−0.1	25	4	30	59	28
150	Ghana	26.1	+0.9	23	7	29	35	50
151	Palau	26.1	−0.7	25	9	38	30	36
152	Côte d’Ivoire	26.0	−1.0	23	9	28	49	34
153	Antigua & Barbuda	25.7	+0.2	20	4	34	45	41
154	Albania	25.5	−2.7	26	19	10	45	36
155	Latvia	25.4	+0.7	34	22	20	19	30
156	St Vincent & the Grenadines	25.4	+0.3	14	6	43	43	36
157	Japan	25.3	+0.6	29	27	32	4	30
158	Lithuania	25.2	+1.6	43	14	23	16	28
159	Solomon Islands	25.2	−2.9	27	0	46	49	14
160	Canada	25.1	+0.5	6	41	26	7	47
161	Czechia	24.8	−0.2	30	15	37	15	25
162	Ireland	24.4	−1.4	27	24	39	6	20
163	Estonia	23.9	+0.7	26	29	22	8	30
164	Dominica	23.8	−1.9	7	11	35	38	42
165	Fiji	23.8	−0.6	32	3	26	28	38
166	Croatia	23.7	−0.1	34	10	24	28	26
167	Micronesia	23.3	−0.5	31	0	46	24	19
168	Austria	23.1	+0.5	22	28	29	6	26
169	Sweden	22.9	+0.4	15	32	25	2	40
170	Barbados	22.6	−0.2	19	6	24	25	52
171	Portugal	22.5	+0.5	28	12	29	15	31
172	Switzerland	22.2	+0.3	24	40	17	1	19
173	St Kitts & Nevis	22.2	+0.4	2	14	40	46	24
174	Uruguay	22.0	−1.7	28	6	30	17	35
175	Norway	21.9	+1.8	10	21	53	1	24
176	St Lucia	21.7	−1.3	12	3	29	49	33
177	Australia	21.0	+0.5	7	17	39	4	45
178	Grenada	20.4	−1.7	14	0	33	32	37
179	Luxembourg	20.4	+0.1	25	24	27	0	19
180	Vanuatu	20.4	−1.4	15	8	34	34	18
181	Finland	20.1	+0.1	18	35	15	1	25
182	New Zealand	19.5	−0.4	10	13	32	2	47
183	Samoa	18.6	+0.7	14	3	34	22	29
184	Denmark	18.1	+0.1	16	13	32	2	28
185	Tonga	18.0	+0.8	15	0	35	30	17
186	Kiribati	17.0	+0.4	11	0	44	30	7
187	Iceland	14.2	−0.7	18	3	21	0	33
188	Marshall Islands	14.2	+1.3	7	20	1	37	11
189	Nauru	13.3	−4.0	8	0	23	39	7
190	Andorra	12.9	−1.4	—	0	39	6	7
191	Tuvalu	10.2	−2.3	6	0	—	40	6
192	San Marino	7.4	+1.3	—	3	—	9	14
—	North Korea	insufficient data	—	—	75	—	86	—
—	Liechtenstein	insufficient data	—	—	17	—	6	—
—	Monaco	insufficient data	—	—	6	—	7	—
—	Taiwan	insufficient data	—	—	32	—	—	—
—	Vatican City	insufficient data	—	—	0	—	—	—

Movers

Biggest risers

Libya62.5+6.2
Djibouti42.3+5.4
Myanmar (Burma)53.1+5.3
Papua New Guinea33.7+5.0
Panama39.8+3.9

Biggest fallers

Somalia45.4−7.1
Syria54.5−4.2
Eritrea45.6−4.0
Bahrain34.8−4.0
Nauru13.3−4.0

Change in points against the previous published edition. (Edition 2020 · 2020)

Sub-indices

The ten most exposed countries in each sub-index

Chokepoints concentrate the risk of small, open economies

71.9

64.9

64.7

63.9

62.5

60.2

59.6

58.0

58.0

57.7

Source: Intelrift, IGE · ChokepointsData through 31 December 2021

Sanctions weigh on jurisdictions under a regime and on their partners

100.0

90.0

87.0

78.2

77.6

75.0

74.6

73.7

73.6

71.8

Source: Intelrift, IGE · SanctionsData through 31 December 2021

Commodity concentration punishes single-product exporters

89.2

79.5

79.1

79.0

79.0

78.6

78.4

77.9

77.7

74.4

Source: Intelrift, IGE · Commodity concentrationData through 31 December 2021

Institutional fragility follows political violence

Somalia

98.2

Central African Republic

94.7

88.9

88.6

86.1

84.7

84.2

84.0

83.5

83.2

Source: Intelrift, IGE · Institutional fragilityData through 31 December 2021

Sovereign stress shows in reserves, inflation and the currency

Sudan

84.1

Palestinian Territories

76.5

75.3

72.0

68.9

67.9

67.2

66.4

62.7

61.8

Source: Intelrift, IGE · Sovereign stressData through 31 December 2021

How to read the index

Three things to know before reading a figure

It measures exposure, not prediction.

The IGE measures how much structural damage an economy would suffer from a route closure, tighter sanctions, a swing in its commodities, an institutional crisis or an episode of sovereign stress. It does not say when anything will happen.

The scale is relative to the edition.

Each input is placed between the 5th and 95th percentiles of countries with data and scaled to 0–100. A 70 means being among the most exposed countries in the world in this edition, not 70% of anything.

What is missing is visible.

When a country lacks data for a sub-index it shows as "insufficient data" and the index is computed from the others with renormalised weights. Nothing is filled with a zero or an estimate.

Bands of the scaleMinimal 0–20Low 20–30Moderate 30–40Elevated 40–50High 50–60Severe 60+Bands are for reading the map and the table; the computation works with the continuous figure.

Calibration

Calibration: coming soon

Every edition leaves a public record of its scores and hash. Once there is enough history, the index's calibrated accuracy against real stress episodes will be published here.

Use the index

Download, reproduce or integrate the index

PDF in preparation

Retrospective 2021

Read the methodology

ige-v1

API access

GET /api/v1/geo-index · CSV

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