Geoeconomic Index · quarterly · public

GeoeconomicIndex.

Retrospective 2022Published on 19 October 2026Data through 31 December 2022Scale 0–100 · higher means more riskBack to the index

How much geoeconomic risk each economy carries: exposure to route closures, sanctions, dependence on a few commodities, institutional fragility and stress in its sovereign markets. Transparent, reproducible and falsifiable.

Three findings of the edition

Iraq leads the edition with 61.1 points; Sanctions accounts for 31% of its score.
The biggest riser is Ghana: +5.0 points on the previous edition, driven by sovereign stress.
Malacca is the main chokepoint for 70 countries; 23 of them have more than 10% of GDP exposed to its closure.

Geoeconomic risk, country by country

Source: Intelrift, IGEData through 31 December 2022

Hover to see the score. Click to open the country page.

Ranking

Every country, sortable

192 / 197


1	Iraq	61.1	−2.7	58	75	80	69	11
2	Iran	58.9	+1.9	37	100	50	55	42
3	Libya	58.6	−3.9	46	64	79	82	20
4	Venezuela	57.8	−2.1	16	74	65	84	66
5	South Sudan	56.7	+1.2	26	59	—	83	78
6	Lebanon	54.8	+2.2	66	65	26	54	59
7	Myanmar (Burma)	53.4	+0.3	47	74	32	78	34
8	Afghanistan	52.9	−4.7	58	78	27	66	23
9	Yemen	52.9	−2.4	45	47	53	80	48
10	Ukraine	52.0	+2.6	53	55	32	72	53
11	Belarus	51.4	−1.6	46	87	12	59	46
12	Mali	51.3	+2.3	56	36	53	81	37
13	Syria	50.8	−3.7	42	78	23	76	33
14	Sudan	50.2	−3.3	33	50	38	75	72
15	Congo - Kinshasa	50.0	+1.3	29	54	56	89	31
16	Moldova	49.6	+2.8	80	38	30	47	48
17	Cuba	47.2	−0.8	42	72	26	44	—
18	Eritrea	46.9	+1.3	63	11	55	71	46
19	Pakistan	46.8	+3.0	42	48	29	50	74
20	Russia	46.5	−1.4	20	90	45	44	23
21	Central African Republic	46.3	−0.3	38	46	38	95	25
22	Nicaragua	46.0	−0.5	44	52	32	59	45
23	Burkina Faso	45.5	+4.2	62	8	54	69	48
24	Somalia	45.4	0.0	37	48	27	100	25
25	Tunisia	43.3	+1.2	48	39	31	45	57
26	Haiti	42.9	+3.3	30	40	29	84	47
27	Chad	42.9	−0.6	40	9	74	71	34
28	Türkiye	42.0	−0.8	34	57	14	39	71
29	Kyrgyzstan	41.9	+0.6	49	26	39	61	42
30	Equatorial Guinea	41.7	−1.5	26	7	89	84	20
31	Angola	41.6	−2.0	36	11	79	51	43
32	Ethiopia	41.5	−0.8	41	10	42	75	60
33	Palestinian Territories	41.3	−3.1	—	20	32	54	77
34	Azerbaijan	41.0	+1.1	40	17	79	52	22
35	Turkmenistan	40.7	−1.6	37	8	73	59	—
36	Kazakhstan	40.6	−0.9	34	28	58	40	49
37	Jordan	40.4	+1.4	63	30	23	36	49
38	Panama	40.2	+0.4	44	31	35	48	49
39	Guinea-Bissau	40.1	+0.6	26	35	41	66	45
40	Djibouti	39.9	−2.4	58	8	30	72	45
41	Nigeria	39.9	−1.0	29	15	62	66	44
42	Kuwait	39.8	−1.4	40	22	81	35	18
43	Zimbabwe	39.8	−1.6	42	20	28	59	67
44	Burundi	39.7	+2.1	61	10	36	55	43
45	Armenia	39.4	+0.7	55	28	26	48	44
46	North Macedonia	39.4	+0.4	64	22	27	40	44
47	Mongolia	38.9	+0.5	46	7	51	46	57
48	Guyana	38.6	+0.7	47	10	64	53	24
49	Georgia	38.3	−1.1	62	28	18	34	47
50	Oman	38.3	+0.5	40	26	60	33	34
51	Zambia	38.1	−3.2	39	7	55	52	52
52	Malaysia	37.5	−0.2	47	42	28	24	41
53	Sri Lanka	37.3	+2.0	39	13	29	44	79
54	Liberia	37.2	+1.6	42	16	49	57	30
55	Maldives	37.1	+0.6	44	20	44	40	43
56	Mexico	37.1	+0.3	21	42	30	62	40
57	El Salvador	37.1	−1.3	39	12	32	61	58
58	Bulgaria	36.3	+1.1	55	33	14	39	38
59	Gambia	36.3	+3.9	40	22	41	53	32
60	Laos	36.2	+2.8	40	14	26	53	62
61	Congo - Brazzaville	36.1	+2.6	24	8	74	53	36
62	India	36.1	+0.7	37	43	27	33	39
63	Singapore	36.1	+0.1	60	45	30	2	25
64	Uganda	36.1	+3.2	44	21	30	47	45
65	Mozambique	35.9	+1.4	30	9	43	61	57
66	Guinea	35.7	−2.6	30	28	31	78	22
67	Jamaica	35.7	−0.4	48	12	25	56	49
68	Morocco	35.7	+1.5	50	19	26	49	40
69	Dominican Republic	35.5	−0.6	39	17	42	49	38
70	Paraguay	35.5	+0.6	39	16	40	56	37
71	Honduras	35.4	−1.1	38	21	29	66	35
72	Qatar	35.3	−0.8	38	19	72	18	26
73	Uzbekistan	35.3	+0.2	34	26	38	51	33
74	Mauritania	35.1	+0.1	50	12	38	48	32
75	United Arab Emirates	35.0	−0.3	40	50	32	16	24
76	Bolivia	35.0	+0.9	48	11	36	49	38
77	Colombia	35.0	+2.0	18	27	38	57	51
78	Guatemala	35.0	0.0	32	28	28	63	33
79	Niger	35.0	+1.7	39	17	28	57	48
80	Malawi	34.7	+0.8	44	0	40	51	53
81	Seychelles	34.4	−1.2	57	15	40	26	30
82	China	34.2	+0.3	20	58	30	34	26
83	Algeria	34.1	−0.6	21	18	78	41	17
84	Bosnia & Herzegovina	34.0	+0.5	33	33	22	51	36
85	Saudi Arabia	33.9	−1.3	27	31	60	31	18
86	Gabon	33.8	+1.4	26	0	54	71	39
87	Hungary	33.8	+3.5	44	14	34	29	54
88	Argentina	33.7	+1.4	18	24	30	45	71
89	Slovakia	33.7	+2.7	45	18	38	26	45
90	Belgium	33.5	+3.0	53	34	23	10	39
91	Egypt	33.5	+2.0	21	28	21	41	71
92	Cambodia	33.5	+0.1	40	20	31	48	34
93	Vietnam	33.4	−0.6	34	22	36	44	38
94	South Africa	33.4	+1.1	19	36	21	53	49
95	Greece	33.2	+2.3	46	28	17	29	45
96	Cyprus	33.1	+1.2	42	40	20	24	34
97	Lesotho	33.1	−0.6	50	0	35	60	31
98	Kosovo	33.0	+1.8	—	22	—	45	39
99	Serbia	32.9	+1.8	41	37	5	43	39
100	Thailand	32.9	+0.7	36	33	26	35	33
101	Tajikistan	32.9	−1.8	49	16	30	51	20
102	Bangladesh	32.7	+0.5	31	13	40	45	47
103	Bahrain	32.6	−2.2	39	19	27	39	46
104	Kenya	32.5	+0.5	30	24	25	43	50
105	Suriname	32.5	−0.6	21	8	48	47	58
106	Comoros	32.4	−1.5	23	7	44	81	26
107	Montenegro	32.3	+1.4	31	17	21	40	67
108	Papua New Guinea	32.3	−1.4	23	0	55	62	41
109	Brunei	32.2	−0.3	43	0	81	16	20
110	Romania	32.2	+0.5	41	17	31	32	45
111	Belize	32.1	−1.9	23	15	44	59	33
112	Senegal	32.1	+2.2	47	12	21	30	59
113	Italy	32.0	+2.7	36	29	27	25	44
114	Philippines	32.0	−0.4	28	27	34	43	35
115	Chile	31.9	+1.9	35	15	38	27	53
116	Malta	31.7	+1.4	40	28	38	20	28
117	Cape Verde	31.6	+1.7	36	4	55	28	42
118	Brazil	31.4	−0.7	16	24	31	52	47
119	Netherlands	31.2	+3.1	53	37	17	4	32
120	Ghana	31.1	+5.0	29	7	31	35	71
121	Cameroon	30.9	+2.6	29	6	35	65	35
122	Mauritius	30.6	+2.2	49	6	29	23	51
123	São Tomé & Príncipe	30.5	+0.9	31	0	52	43	39
124	Ecuador	30.4	+1.1	26	18	33	49	38
125	Slovenia	30.2	+3.0	53	10	35	17	33
126	Sierra Leone	30.2	+2.2	24	10	35	48	50
127	France	30.1	+2.2	25	39	30	14	41
128	Costa Rica	30.0	−0.8	30	19	32	32	45
129	Spain	29.8	+2.0	31	34	20	21	43
130	Germany	29.6	+2.0	27	45	29	5	32
131	United Kingdom	29.6	+3.1	22	48	19	10	46
132	Israel	29.6	−0.4	19	34	41	23	32
133	South Korea	29.6	+0.8	39	21	34	13	40
134	Rwanda	29.3	+0.3	43	18	16	31	42
135	Madagascar	29.0	+0.6	41	4	22	60	29
136	Indonesia	28.8	−0.1	20	34	22	32	39
137	Trinidad & Tobago	28.7	+0.4	19	9	44	59	28
138	Eswatini	28.4	−0.1	33	0	31	63	30
139	Namibia	28.3	+0.5	34	12	17	40	49
140	Nepal	28.3	−1.1	47	0	25	45	32
141	Albania	28.1	+2.6	26	19	24	43	38
142	Czechia	28.0	+3.2	37	15	36	15	36
143	Lithuania	27.9	+2.7	44	14	22	16	45
144	Japan	27.8	+2.5	32	27	33	3	39
145	Tanzania	27.7	−0.2	26	12	31	44	37
146	Côte d’Ivoire	27.4	+1.4	27	9	26	47	43
147	Timor-Leste	27.4	−2.7	19	0	68	46	15
148	Poland	27.3	+0.2	27	18	29	22	46
149	Latvia	27.2	+1.8	34	22	18	21	44
150	Benin	27.1	−0.7	29	10	35	35	35
151	United States	27.1	−0.2	6	44	24	22	44
152	Peru	26.9	−0.9	22	19	32	40	29
153	Botswana	26.8	−1.0	38	0	44	32	25
154	Dominica	26.6	+2.8	15	11	33	45	45
155	Fiji	26.4	+2.6	36	3	29	29	44
156	Ireland	26.3	+1.9	29	24	39	5	29
157	Bhutan	26.0	−0.7	44	0	35	17	37
158	Croatia	26.0	+2.3	38	10	21	27	38
159	Togo	26.0	−0.2	26	4	28	52	34
160	Canada	25.7	+0.6	5	41	27	7	51
161	Austria	25.6	+2.5	28	28	26	7	35
162	Bahamas	25.6	−2.7	23	9	27	41	42
163	Palau	25.5	−0.6	23	9	38	30	37
164	Estonia	25.0	+1.1	26	29	20	7	42
165	Portugal	25.0	+2.5	33	12	28	16	39
166	St Vincent & the Grenadines	24.9	−0.5	16	6	42	41	33
167	Solomon Islands	24.4	−0.8	22	0	46	45	20
168	Sweden	24.4	+1.5	18	32	24	3	44
169	Norway	24.0	+2.1	12	21	55	2	29
170	Grenada	23.8	+3.4	31	0	35	32	30
171	Barbados	22.7	+0.1	21	6	24	27	48
172	Finland	22.7	+2.6	22	35	16	2	34
173	Antigua & Barbuda	22.6	−3.1	15	4	35	35	37
174	Switzerland	22.5	+0.3	24	40	16	2	20
175	Australia	22.2	+1.2	10	17	37	3	51
176	St Kitts & Nevis	22.2	0.0	2	14	41	41	27
177	Micronesia	21.9	−1.4	26	0	46	24	17
178	Luxembourg	21.5	+1.1	27	24	23	2	25
179	Uruguay	21.1	−0.9	25	6	32	18	30
180	New Zealand	21.0	+1.5	14	13	30	1	55
181	Vanuatu	20.4	0.0	12	8	34	36	22
182	Kiribati	19.9	+2.9	11	0	43	31	25
183	St Lucia	19.9	−1.8	10	3	27	46	30
184	Tonga	19.8	+1.8	18	0	39	31	19
185	Denmark	19.3	+1.2	20	13	29	3	32
186	Samoa	18.9	+0.3	17	3	29	23	33
187	Andorra	17.2	+4.3	—	0	42	10	20
188	Iceland	15.7	+1.5	19	3	20	2	40
189	Marshall Islands	14.6	+0.4	8	20	1	34	15
190	Tuvalu	14.3	+4.1	7	0	—	39	26
191	Nauru	12.6	−0.7	4	0	20	36	15
192	San Marino	8.6	+1.2	—	3	—	12	15
—	North Korea	insufficient data	—	—	75	—	80	—
—	Liechtenstein	insufficient data	—	—	17	—	5	—
—	Monaco	insufficient data	—	—	6	—	7	—
—	Taiwan	insufficient data	—	—	32	—	—	—
—	Vatican City	insufficient data	—	—	0	—	—	—

Movers

Biggest risers

Ghana31.1+5.0
Andorra17.2+4.3
Burkina Faso45.5+4.2
Tuvalu14.3+4.1
Gambia36.3+3.9

Biggest fallers

Afghanistan52.9−4.7
Libya58.6−3.9
Syria50.8−3.7
Sudan50.2−3.3
Zambia38.1−3.2

Change in points against the previous published edition. (Edition 2021 · 2021)

Sub-indices

The ten most exposed countries in each sub-index

Chokepoints concentrate the risk of small, open economies

79.7

65.5

63.8

63.0

62.6

61.7

61.5

61.2

60.1

58.3

Source: Intelrift, IGE · ChokepointsData through 31 December 2022

Sanctions weigh on jurisdictions under a regime and on their partners

100.0

90.0

87.0

78.2

77.6

75.0

74.6

73.7

73.6

71.8

Source: Intelrift, IGE · SanctionsData through 31 December 2022

Commodity concentration punishes single-product exporters

89.2

80.9

80.5

79.7

79.0

78.7

78.5

78.4

74.2

74.0

Source: Intelrift, IGE · Commodity concentrationData through 31 December 2022

Institutional fragility follows political violence

Somalia

100.0

Central African Republic

95.2

89.4

84.1

83.8

83.5

82.6

81.9

80.9

80.7

Source: Intelrift, IGE · Institutional fragilityData through 31 December 2022

Sovereign stress shows in reserves, inflation and the currency

Sri Lanka

78.8

South Sudan

78.3

Palestinian Territories

76.7

74.0

72.4

71.3

70.9

70.8

70.6

66.9

Source: Intelrift, IGE · Sovereign stressData through 31 December 2022

How to read the index

Three things to know before reading a figure

It measures exposure, not prediction.

The IGE measures how much structural damage an economy would suffer from a route closure, tighter sanctions, a swing in its commodities, an institutional crisis or an episode of sovereign stress. It does not say when anything will happen.

The scale is relative to the edition.

Each input is placed between the 5th and 95th percentiles of countries with data and scaled to 0–100. A 70 means being among the most exposed countries in the world in this edition, not 70% of anything.

What is missing is visible.

When a country lacks data for a sub-index it shows as "insufficient data" and the index is computed from the others with renormalised weights. Nothing is filled with a zero or an estimate.

Bands of the scaleMinimal 0–20Low 20–30Moderate 30–40Elevated 40–50High 50–60Severe 60+Bands are for reading the map and the table; the computation works with the continuous figure.

Calibration

Calibration: coming soon

Every edition leaves a public record of its scores and hash. Once there is enough history, the index's calibrated accuracy against real stress episodes will be published here.

Use the index

Download, reproduce or integrate the index

PDF in preparation

Retrospective 2022

Read the methodology

ige-v1

API access

GET /api/v1/geo-index · CSV

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