Geoeconomic Index · quarterly · public

GeoeconomicIndex.

Retrospective 2023Published on 19 October 2026Data through 31 December 2023Scale 0–100 · higher means more riskBack to the index

How much geoeconomic risk each economy carries: exposure to route closures, sanctions, dependence on a few commodities, institutional fragility and stress in its sovereign markets. Transparent, reproducible and falsifiable.

Three findings of the edition

Iraq leads the edition with 59.7 points; Sanctions accounts for 31% of its score.
The biggest riser is Trinidad & Tobago: +4.0 points on the previous edition, driven by chokepoints.
Malacca is the main chokepoint for 69 countries; 23 of them have more than 10% of GDP exposed to its closure.

Geoeconomic risk, country by country

Source: Intelrift, IGEData through 31 December 2023

Hover to see the score. Click to open the country page.

Ranking

Every country, sortable

192 / 197


1	Iraq	59.7	−1.4	55	75	79	65	11
2	Iran	58.8	−0.1	38	100	48	56	42
3	Libya	58.4	−0.2	45	64	79	81	22
4	Lebanon	57.4	+2.6	65	65	23	68	68
5	Venezuela	56.0	−1.8	16	74	59	82	64
6	South Sudan	54.2	−2.5	26	59	—	79	69
7	Congo - Kinshasa	53.9	+3.9	44	54	58	86	33
8	Myanmar (Burma)	53.4	0.0	48	74	33	78	32
9	Sudan	52.8	+2.6	31	50	36	97	72
10	Belarus	52.2	+0.8	49	87	13	58	45
11	Afghanistan	51.6	−1.3	57	78	28	62	19
12	Syria	51.2	+0.4	44	78	23	76	32
13	Ukraine	49.9	−2.1	50	55	33	67	48
14	Mali	49.7	−1.6	56	36	54	78	28
15	Cuba	47.9	+0.7	44	72	26	44	—
16	Russia	47.4	+0.9	20	90	45	46	26
17	Yemen	46.9	−6.0	39	47	39	69	48
18	Moldova	46.8	−2.8	75	38	29	45	39
19	Pakistan	46.6	−0.2	41	48	32	52	68
20	Eritrea	46.2	−0.7	61	11	56	68	46
21	Somalia	45.4	0.0	39	48	26	100	23
22	Central African Republic	45.2	−1.1	43	46	35	88	19
23	Palestinian Territories	44.8	+3.5	—	20	32	72	76
24	Burkina Faso	44.6	−0.9	62	8	58	73	32
25	Nicaragua	43.4	−2.6	40	52	32	58	36
26	Angola	43.3	+1.7	36	11	79	50	54
27	Haiti	43.3	+0.4	29	40	30	92	41
28	Tunisia	42.1	−1.2	49	39	30	45	50
29	Chad	41.6	−1.3	41	9	70	73	28
30	Türkiye	41.3	−0.7	32	57	18	39	64
31	Zimbabwe	41.3	+1.5	44	20	28	59	73
32	Panama	41.1	+0.9	45	31	35	49	54
33	Turkmenistan	41.0	+0.3	38	8	73	59	—
34	Burundi	40.6	+0.9	62	10	33	55	52
35	Kyrgyzstan	40.2	−1.7	47	26	33	60	42
36	Nigeria	40.1	+0.2	29	15	60	62	52
37	Zambia	39.9	+1.8	46	7	51	52	57
38	Azerbaijan	39.8	−1.2	42	17	75	47	21
39	Kuwait	39.8	0.0	40	22	81	34	20
40	Guinea-Bissau	39.7	−0.4	25	35	44	65	41
41	Equatorial Guinea	39.5	−2.2	23	7	89	83	12
42	Djibouti	39.3	−0.6	57	8	30	72	42
43	Kazakhstan	38.9	−1.7	31	28	56	38	47
44	Jordan	38.2	−2.2	60	30	22	34	43
45	Oman	38.2	−0.1	42	26	59	31	34
46	Liberia	38.0	+0.8	43	16	47	56	37
47	Ethiopia	37.9	−3.6	44	10	39	61	48
48	Mongolia	37.9	−1.0	45	7	56	45	45
49	Georgia	37.8	−0.5	59	28	23	33	43
50	North Macedonia	37.6	−1.8	61	22	28	42	34
51	Malaysia	37.4	−0.1	47	42	28	24	39
52	Guyana	36.8	−1.8	41	10	62	54	23
53	Congo - Brazzaville	36.5	+0.4	31	8	71	53	31
54	Maldives	36.5	−0.6	43	20	43	41	39
55	Armenia	36.4	−3.0	54	28	18	40	42
56	Guinea	36.4	+0.7	31	28	31	79	24
57	Uzbekistan	36.4	+1.1	36	26	40	51	34
58	Mexico	35.9	−1.2	19	42	32	60	37
59	Honduras	35.5	+0.1	40	21	27	68	32
60	Laos	35.5	−0.7	40	14	31	53	51
61	Malawi	35.3	+0.6	46	0	42	50	52
62	Qatar	35.3	0.0	38	19	74	19	24
63	Singapore	35.3	−0.8	60	45	28	1	22
64	El Salvador	35.3	−1.8	39	12	29	55	56
65	India	35.1	−1.0	37	43	25	32	36
66	Jamaica	35.1	−0.6	46	12	26	57	46
67	Bolivia	35.0	0.0	44	11	34	49	46
68	Paraguay	34.9	−0.6	36	16	44	55	32
69	Seychelles	34.8	+0.4	63	15	36	24	31
70	Egypt	34.6	+1.1	23	28	23	40	75
71	Mauritania	34.5	−0.6	52	12	37	49	27
72	Mozambique	34.4	−1.5	30	9	44	53	52
73	Morocco	34.3	−1.4	47	19	28	49	33
74	Bulgaria	34.2	−2.1	51	33	15	39	29
75	Sri Lanka	34.0	−3.3	40	13	28	43	58
76	China	33.9	−0.3	21	58	29	33	24
77	Guatemala	33.9	−1.1	31	28	29	61	27
78	Lesotho	33.9	+0.8	51	0	37	62	29
79	United Arab Emirates	33.6	−1.4	34	50	32	16	26
80	Gambia	33.6	−2.7	33	22	34	52	34
81	Gabon	33.5	−0.3	30	0	52	72	32
82	Niger	33.5	−1.5	38	17	29	58	36
83	Suriname	33.4	+0.9	24	8	50	46	58
84	Bahrain	33.3	+0.7	38	19	33	38	46
85	Algeria	33.2	−0.9	20	18	78	40	15
86	Argentina	33.1	−0.6	15	24	27	45	76
87	Dominican Republic	33.1	−2.4	40	17	30	47	37
88	Saudi Arabia	33.1	−0.8	26	31	56	28	22
89	Bosnia & Herzegovina	33.0	−1.0	31	33	26	50	29
90	Cambodia	32.9	−0.6	40	20	36	47	24
91	Uganda	32.8	−3.3	44	21	15	46	44
92	Trinidad & Tobago	32.7	+4.0	37	9	45	59	23
93	Vietnam	32.7	−0.7	35	22	34	44	34
94	Bangladesh	32.6	−0.1	30	13	40	45	49
95	Cyprus	32.6	−0.5	43	40	22	24	25
96	South Africa	32.6	−0.8	19	36	20	54	45
97	Colombia	32.5	−2.5	16	27	35	55	43
98	Kenya	32.4	−0.1	31	24	23	42	51
99	Comoros	32.4	0.0	27	7	45	78	22
100	Israel	32.2	+2.6	15	34	42	47	31
101	Senegal	31.9	−0.2	48	12	22	29	56
102	Thailand	31.7	−1.2	36	33	27	34	26
103	Ecuador	31.4	+1.0	26	18	30	52	45
104	Sierra Leone	31.3	+1.1	27	10	33	50	53
105	Belize	31.1	−1.0	21	15	47	56	30
106	Serbia	31.1	−1.8	39	37	7	42	29
107	Philippines	31.0	−1.0	26	27	33	42	32
108	Tajikistan	31.0	−1.9	43	16	28	50	21
109	Hungary	30.8	−3.0	39	14	34	29	43
110	Brunei	30.7	−1.5	42	0	77	15	18
111	Papua New Guinea	30.7	−1.6	25	0	58	52	35
112	Belgium	30.6	−2.9	46	34	25	11	27
113	Slovakia	30.6	−3.1	39	18	38	27	32
114	Brazil	30.4	−1.0	15	24	31	52	45
115	Ghana	30.3	−0.8	32	7	31	34	61
116	Mauritius	30.3	−0.3	48	6	31	23	49
117	Romania	30.1	−2.1	36	17	32	33	36
118	São Tomé & Príncipe	30.1	−0.4	32	0	54	43	33
119	Greece	30.0	−3.2	41	28	15	30	34
120	Rwanda	30.0	+0.7	44	18	17	29	45
121	Cameroon	29.7	−1.2	30	6	34	63	30
122	Italy	29.7	−2.3	32	29	31	24	33
123	Namibia	29.6	+1.3	37	12	20	40	50
124	Kosovo	29.3	−3.7	—	22	—	44	27
125	Cape Verde	29.2	−2.4	34	4	52	27	34
126	Netherlands	29.1	−2.1	50	37	20	4	18
127	Chile	29.0	−2.9	32	15	38	25	39
128	Malta	29.0	−2.7	37	28	38	20	14
129	Costa Rica	28.7	−1.3	29	19	33	32	36
130	Madagascar	28.7	−0.3	40	4	22	62	27
131	Montenegro	28.6	−3.7	27	17	24	35	51
132	Eswatini	28.5	+0.1	34	0	30	65	29
133	Albania	28.3	+0.2	29	19	28	42	30
134	United Kingdom	28.2	−1.4	19	48	21	11	37
135	Slovenia	28.2	−2.0	51	10	37	17	20
136	Germany	28.1	−1.5	24	45	33	6	23
137	Timor-Leste	28.1	+0.7	19	0	67	45	22
138	France	28.0	−2.1	20	39	32	15	32
139	Indonesia	28.0	−0.8	19	34	25	31	34
140	South Korea	27.9	−1.7	38	21	32	12	34
141	Spain	27.4	−2.4	27	34	22	21	31
142	Nepal	27.3	−1.0	47	0	25	44	26
143	United States	27.1	0.0	5	44	25	22	45
144	Côte d’Ivoire	27.0	−0.4	27	9	27	47	39
145	Peru	26.8	−0.1	21	19	34	41	27
146	Dominica	26.7	+0.1	17	11	35	40	44
147	Bhutan	26.6	+0.6	46	0	36	16	36
148	Tanzania	26.5	−1.2	24	12	31	42	35
149	Fiji	26.1	−0.3	36	3	31	28	40
150	Czechia	25.9	−2.1	33	15	38	13	28
151	Benin	25.8	−1.3	29	10	31	35	32
152	Japan	25.8	−2.0	31	27	33	3	29
153	Poland	25.8	−1.5	25	18	33	22	35
154	Botswana	25.4	−1.4	40	0	40	31	20
155	Palau	25.3	−0.2	23	9	37	29	37
156	Canada	25.0	−0.7	4	41	26	7	50
157	Togo	24.7	−1.3	26	4	26	54	26
158	Solomon Islands	24.5	+0.1	23	0	46	45	20
159	Ireland	24.2	−2.1	27	24	39	4	20
160	Austria	23.6	−2.0	23	28	30	7	25
161	Bahamas	23.6	−2.0	22	9	21	40	40
162	Lithuania	23.3	−4.6	38	14	21	15	26
163	Latvia	23.3	−3.9	26	22	19	20	30
164	St Kitts & Nevis	23.0	+0.8	2	14	40	44	29
165	St Vincent & the Grenadines	23.0	−1.9	11	6	37	43	34
166	Croatia	22.9	−3.1	32	10	24	27	24
167	Portugal	22.9	−2.1	30	12	29	18	28
168	Sweden	22.9	−1.5	16	32	25	4	36
169	Grenada	22.7	−1.1	29	0	28	34	31
170	Antigua & Barbuda	22.4	−0.2	15	4	39	31	36
171	Norway	22.4	−1.6	11	21	51	2	26
172	Micronesia	22.0	+0.1	29	0	44	24	16
173	Switzerland	21.8	−0.7	22	40	18	2	16
174	Barbados	21.5	−1.2	20	6	24	21	47
175	Australia	21.3	−0.9	9	17	36	3	49
176	Finland	20.9	−1.8	17	35	18	3	25
177	Vanuatu	20.9	+0.5	14	8	35	37	21
178	Estonia	20.7	−4.3	18	29	20	7	27
179	New Zealand	20.4	−0.6	16	13	29	1	50
180	Kiribati	20.0	+0.1	16	0	43	32	19
181	Luxembourg	20.0	−1.5	25	24	26	2	15
182	Uruguay	20.0	−1.1	24	6	30	18	27
183	St Lucia	19.4	−0.5	10	3	27	45	28
184	Samoa	17.7	−1.2	18	3	32	21	19
185	Denmark	17.4	−1.9	17	13	30	3	23
186	Tonga	17.0	−2.8	12	0	34	31	17
187	Iceland	14.6	−1.1	17	3	19	3	37
188	Andorra	14.4	−2.8	—	0	43	10	6
189	Marshall Islands	13.2	−1.4	7	20	2	34	8
190	Tuvalu	12.6	−1.7	12	0	—	37	10
191	Nauru	12.4	−0.2	3	0	23	35	12
192	San Marino	6.8	−1.8	—	3	—	13	8
—	North Korea	insufficient data	—	—	75	—	80	—
—	Liechtenstein	insufficient data	—	—	17	—	4	—
—	Monaco	insufficient data	—	—	6	—	7	—
—	Taiwan	insufficient data	—	—	32	—	—	—
—	Vatican City	insufficient data	—	—	0	—	—	—

Movers

Biggest risers

Biggest fallers

Yemen46.9−6.0
Lithuania23.3−4.6
Estonia20.7−4.3
Latvia23.3−3.9
Kosovo29.3−3.7

Change in points against the previous published edition. (Edition 2022 · 2022)

Sub-indices

The ten most exposed countries in each sub-index

Chokepoints concentrate the risk of small, open economies

74.6

65.0

62.8

61.6

61.6

60.9

60.7

59.8

59.7

59.4

Source: Intelrift, IGE · ChokepointsData through 31 December 2023

Sanctions weigh on jurisdictions under a regime and on their partners

100.0

90.0

87.0

78.2

77.6

75.0

74.6

73.7

73.6

71.8

Source: Intelrift, IGE · SanctionsData through 31 December 2023

Commodity concentration punishes single-product exporters

89.2

80.8

79.4

79.4

78.6

77.6

76.6

74.7

73.7

72.5

Source: Intelrift, IGE · Commodity concentrationData through 31 December 2023

Institutional fragility follows political violence

Somalia

100.0

Sudan

97.2

Haiti

92.2

Central African Republic

88.2

85.9

83.1

82.0

80.7

79.5

78.8

Source: Intelrift, IGE · Institutional fragilityData through 31 December 2023

Sovereign stress shows in reserves, inflation and the currency

Palestinian Territories

76.4

76.3

74.8

72.8

72.0

68.5

68.0

67.7

64.4

63.6

Source: Intelrift, IGE · Sovereign stressData through 31 December 2023

How to read the index

Three things to know before reading a figure

It measures exposure, not prediction.

The IGE measures how much structural damage an economy would suffer from a route closure, tighter sanctions, a swing in its commodities, an institutional crisis or an episode of sovereign stress. It does not say when anything will happen.

The scale is relative to the edition.

Each input is placed between the 5th and 95th percentiles of countries with data and scaled to 0–100. A 70 means being among the most exposed countries in the world in this edition, not 70% of anything.

What is missing is visible.

When a country lacks data for a sub-index it shows as "insufficient data" and the index is computed from the others with renormalised weights. Nothing is filled with a zero or an estimate.

Bands of the scaleMinimal 0–20Low 20–30Moderate 30–40Elevated 40–50High 50–60Severe 60+Bands are for reading the map and the table; the computation works with the continuous figure.

Calibration

Calibration: coming soon

Every edition leaves a public record of its scores and hash. Once there is enough history, the index's calibrated accuracy against real stress episodes will be published here.

Use the index

Download, reproduce or integrate the index

PDF in preparation

Retrospective 2023

Read the methodology

ige-v1

API access

GET /api/v1/geo-index · CSV

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