Geoeconomic Index · quarterly · public

GeoeconomicIndex.

Retrospective 2024Published on 19 October 2026Data through 31 December 2024Scale 0–100 · higher means more riskBack to the index

How much geoeconomic risk each economy carries: exposure to route closures, sanctions, dependence on a few commodities, institutional fragility and stress in its sovereign markets. Transparent, reproducible and falsifiable.

Three findings of the edition

Iran leads the edition with 59.6 points; Sanctions accounts for 42% of its score.
The biggest riser is Palestinian Territories: +5.2 points on the previous edition, driven by sovereign stress.
Malacca is the main chokepoint for 69 countries; 21 of them have more than 10% of GDP exposed to its closure.

Geoeconomic risk, country by country

Source: Intelrift, IGEData through 31 December 2024

Hover to see the score. Click to open the country page.

Ranking

Every country, sortable

192 / 197


1	Iran	59.6	+0.8	41	100	48	57	42
2	Iraq	58.5	−1.2	49	75	81	62	15
3	Venezuela	57.6	+1.6	17	74	56	86	72
4	South Sudan	56.5	+2.3	26	59	—	74	85
5	Lebanon	56.1	−1.3	58	65	24	78	61
6	Libya	56.0	−2.4	43	64	79	67	23
7	Myanmar (Burma)	53.1	−0.3	44	74	34	79	33
8	Congo - Kinshasa	52.1	−1.8	37	54	55	88	34
9	Syria	52.0	+0.8	44	78	24	80	33
10	Afghanistan	51.9	+0.3	57	78	29	63	19
11	Belarus	51.8	−0.4	49	87	13	59	43
12	Sudan	51.8	−1.0	27	50	36	99	71
13	Mali	50.3	+0.6	55	36	56	80	28
14	Ukraine	50.2	+0.3	51	55	34	66	48
15	Palestinian Territories	50.0	+5.2	—	20	33	74	99
16	Somalia	49.3	+3.9	41	48	43	100	24
17	Central African Republic	49.0	+3.8	53	46	42	87	20
18	Cuba	48.6	+0.7	44	72	26	47	—
19	Russia	48.5	+1.1	20	90	44	57	24
20	Yemen	48.3	+1.4	40	47	42	71	50
21	Eritrea	47.8	+1.6	68	11	55	69	46
22	Burkina Faso	45.6	+1.0	62	8	62	72	33
23	Moldova	45.6	−1.2	71	38	31	44	36
24	Pakistan	44.1	−2.5	41	48	31	53	52
25	Angola	43.6	+0.3	36	11	80	51	56
26	Nicaragua	43.3	−0.1	39	52	31	60	36
27	Tunisia	43.1	+1.0	51	39	32	46	49
28	Zambia	43.0	+3.1	52	7	54	51	66
29	Haiti	42.0	−1.3	28	40	31	85	41
30	Nigeria	41.4	+1.3	32	15	60	62	56
31	Chad	41.4	−0.2	40	9	68	72	31
32	Turkmenistan	41.3	+0.3	38	8	73	61	—
33	Türkiye	41.3	0.0	30	57	21	40	64
34	Burundi	41.0	+0.4	63	10	36	54	49
35	Kyrgyzstan	40.6	+0.4	51	26	36	60	35
36	Djibouti	40.4	+1.1	57	8	31	71	49
37	Guinea-Bissau	40.4	+0.7	26	35	45	68	41
38	Panama	40.1	−1.0	42	31	33	48	55
39	Ethiopia	39.8	+1.9	45	10	41	63	54
40	Zimbabwe	39.7	−1.6	45	20	28	58	62
41	Georgia	39.4	+1.6	59	28	23	39	49
42	Equatorial Guinea	39.3	−0.2	22	7	89	82	13
43	Kuwait	39.1	−0.7	40	22	78	33	20
44	Guinea	38.9	+2.5	32	28	34	82	33
45	Oman	38.6	+0.4	46	26	59	27	33
46	Jordan	38.3	+0.1	60	30	24	32	43
47	Kazakhstan	38.2	−0.7	31	28	56	37	44
48	Mongolia	38.2	+0.3	47	7	57	44	45
49	Niger	38.0	+4.5	39	17	44	65	37
50	Azerbaijan	37.8	−2.0	40	17	66	47	22
51	Liberia	37.4	−0.6	43	16	48	55	33
52	North Macedonia	37.3	−0.3	59	22	29	41	34
53	Guyana	37.2	+0.4	37	10	68	54	25
54	Congo - Brazzaville	37.1	+0.6	29	8	71	54	37
55	Gambia	37.0	+3.4	40	22	42	53	34
56	Maldives	37.0	+0.5	43	20	45	42	40
57	Mexico	37.0	+1.1	20	42	33	60	39
58	Malaysia	36.9	−0.5	46	42	29	22	39
59	Uzbekistan	36.8	+0.4	41	26	38	49	34
60	Malawi	36.7	+1.4	46	0	45	50	58
61	Paraguay	36.6	+1.7	40	16	46	54	36
62	Laos	36.1	+0.6	41	14	32	52	54
63	Egypt	36.0	+1.4	28	28	23	41	75
64	Bolivia	35.7	+0.7	47	11	34	51	46
65	Honduras	35.7	+0.2	40	21	27	68	33
66	Armenia	35.6	−0.8	57	28	9	41	44
67	Seychelles	35.1	+0.3	63	15	36	23	32
68	Singapore	35.1	−0.2	59	45	29	1	22
69	India	35.0	−0.1	36	43	25	32	36
70	Qatar	35.0	−0.3	40	19	71	19	23
71	Mauritania	34.9	+0.4	52	12	38	50	26
72	Jamaica	34.7	−0.4	46	12	27	56	43
73	El Salvador	34.7	−0.6	38	12	29	55	54
74	Mozambique	34.5	+0.1	30	9	45	55	52
75	Bulgaria	34.1	−0.1	51	33	14	40	29
76	Morocco	34.1	−0.2	44	19	32	47	32
77	Bahrain	33.9	+0.6	38	19	35	36	49
78	Vietnam	33.6	+0.9	38	22	34	44	36
79	United Arab Emirates	33.5	−0.1	34	50	32	15	26
80	Bangladesh	33.5	+0.9	31	13	41	47	51
81	China	33.4	−0.5	21	58	29	32	21
82	Gabon	33.3	−0.2	30	0	52	71	32
83	Dominican Republic	33.1	0.0	40	17	30	44	41
84	Bosnia & Herzegovina	33.0	0.0	30	33	27	50	29
85	Guatemala	33.0	−0.9	31	28	29	59	24
86	Senegal	32.9	+1.0	49	12	23	29	58
87	Uganda	32.9	+0.1	44	21	18	46	40
88	Saudi Arabia	32.7	−0.4	26	31	56	25	23
89	Cyprus	32.5	−0.1	44	40	22	25	24
90	Cambodia	32.5	−0.4	41	20	34	47	23
91	Comoros	32.5	+0.1	27	7	46	76	23
92	Sri Lanka	32.2	−1.8	39	13	28	40	51
93	Colombia	32.1	−0.4	16	27	34	56	42
94	Algeria	32.1	−1.1	19	18	74	38	16
95	South Africa	32.1	−0.5	18	36	21	53	43
96	Lesotho	31.8	−2.1	51	0	34	60	22
97	Sierra Leone	31.6	+0.3	27	10	32	50	55
98	Belize	31.4	+0.3	22	15	46	57	30
99	Kenya	31.4	−1.0	30	24	24	43	44
100	Serbia	31.4	+0.3	38	37	7	45	31
101	Argentina	31.3	−1.8	12	24	26	44	71
102	Ecuador	31.3	−0.1	27	18	32	53	39
103	Thailand	31.3	−0.4	36	33	25	35	24
104	Philippines	31.1	+0.1	26	27	33	42	33
105	Tajikistan	31.1	+0.1	42	16	29	50	22
106	Brunei	31.0	+0.3	42	0	77	16	19
107	Greece	31.0	+1.0	42	28	17	33	34
108	Mauritius	31.0	+0.7	50	6	32	23	48
109	Papua New Guinea	30.9	+0.2	26	0	59	52	33
110	Romania	30.7	+0.6	35	17	35	34	37
111	Israel	30.6	−1.6	12	34	38	47	29
112	Brazil	30.5	+0.1	14	24	31	50	47
113	Trinidad & Tobago	30.5	−2.2	26	9	42	60	28
114	Belgium	30.4	−0.2	44	34	25	12	28
115	Rwanda	30.3	+0.3	46	18	18	30	41
116	Montenegro	30.1	+1.5	29	17	25	34	57
117	Slovakia	30.1	−0.5	37	18	38	28	30
118	Cameroon	30.0	+0.3	30	6	35	63	30
119	Chile	29.7	+0.7	32	15	39	24	44
120	Malta	29.7	+0.7	41	28	35	24	13
121	Hungary	29.5	−1.3	35	14	33	31	40
122	Netherlands	29.5	+0.4	47	37	23	5	21
123	Côte d’Ivoire	29.3	+2.3	27	9	37	47	39
124	São Tomé & Príncipe	29.3	−0.8	33	0	51	44	29
125	Kosovo	29.3	0.0	—	22	—	43	28
126	Italy	29.2	−0.5	31	29	30	25	31
127	Ghana	29.0	−1.3	30	7	36	33	51
128	South Korea	29.0	+1.1	38	21	34	14	35
129	Suriname	29.0	−4.4	19	8	44	46	44
130	Timor-Leste	29.0	+0.9	21	0	68	45	24
131	Costa Rica	28.9	+0.2	29	19	33	32	36
132	Indonesia	28.7	+0.7	20	34	24	33	37
133	Eswatini	28.5	0.0	35	0	30	66	27
134	Germany	28.3	+0.2	23	45	32	9	22
135	Slovenia	28.0	−0.2	50	10	38	18	19
136	France	27.9	−0.1	18	39	32	17	32
137	Dominica	27.8	+1.1	17	11	36	42	49
138	Albania	27.7	−0.6	29	19	26	40	30
139	Madagascar	27.7	−1.0	37	4	23	59	26
140	Namibia	27.7	−1.9	35	12	18	38	44
141	Spain	27.4	0.0	26	34	22	22	31
142	Tanzania	27.4	+0.9	25	12	32	42	36
143	United States	27.3	+0.2	4	44	24	23	46
144	Nepal	27.1	−0.2	48	0	26	44	22
145	United Kingdom	27.0	−1.2	19	48	19	11	33
146	Bhutan	26.5	−0.1	47	0	37	16	34
147	Peru	26.5	−0.3	22	19	34	40	24
148	Benin	26.1	+0.3	26	10	30	38	36
149	Czechia	26.0	+0.1	34	15	39	13	27
150	Botswana	25.8	+0.4	40	0	40	31	22
151	Japan	25.8	0.0	30	27	32	4	30
152	Togo	25.3	+0.6	27	4	27	55	27
153	Canada	24.8	−0.2	4	41	26	7	49
154	Cape Verde	24.6	−4.6	20	4	49	26	32
155	Poland	24.6	−1.2	24	18	33	19	33
156	Solomon Islands	24.4	−0.1	24	0	47	44	17
157	Bahamas	24.3	+0.7	24	9	23	40	38
158	Fiji	24.3	−1.8	36	3	22	26	42
159	Ireland	24.2	0.0	27	24	41	6	14
160	Palau	23.9	−1.4	20	9	38	29	31
161	St Vincent & the Grenadines	23.5	+0.5	12	6	38	44	33
162	Croatia	23.3	+0.4	33	10	24	27	25
163	Austria	23.2	−0.4	20	28	30	9	24
164	Antigua & Barbuda	23.0	+0.6	14	4	42	31	35
165	St Kitts & Nevis	23.0	0.0	3	14	40	44	29
166	Grenada	22.6	−0.1	30	0	31	34	27
167	Portugal	22.5	−0.4	29	12	29	19	26
168	Sweden	22.5	−0.4	16	32	25	4	34
169	Latvia	22.1	−1.2	24	22	19	20	26
170	Micronesia	22.0	0.0	30	0	44	23	16
171	Lithuania	21.9	−1.4	35	14	22	15	22
172	Switzerland	21.8	0.0	22	40	19	2	15
173	Norway	21.5	−0.9	10	21	49	2	25
174	Barbados	21.4	−0.1	19	6	24	21	47
175	Australia	21.3	0.0	9	17	37	3	48
176	Vanuatu	21.3	+0.4	14	8	38	37	19
177	Estonia	20.9	+0.2	17	29	22	8	26
178	Kiribati	20.8	+0.8	16	0	43	32	23
179	Finland	20.7	−0.2	17	35	18	3	24
180	Luxembourg	20.6	+0.6	25	24	27	2	19
181	St Lucia	19.9	+0.5	11	3	28	45	28
182	New Zealand	19.9	−0.5	16	13	29	1	45
183	Uruguay	19.9	−0.1	22	6	31	18	28
184	Tonga	17.8	+0.8	13	0	35	30	20
185	Denmark	17.5	+0.1	17	13	31	3	24
186	Samoa	16.5	−1.2	16	3	32	23	15
187	Andorra	14.2	−0.2	—	0	41	10	6
188	Iceland	14.1	−0.5	16	3	19	2	36
189	Marshall Islands	12.8	−0.4	6	20	2	33	7
190	Tuvalu	11.2	−1.4	10	0	—	36	8
191	Nauru	11.1	−1.3	2	0	20	35	8
192	San Marino	6.9	+0.1	—	3	—	15	6
—	North Korea	insufficient data	—	—	75	—	81	—
—	Liechtenstein	insufficient data	—	—	17	—	4	—
—	Monaco	insufficient data	—	—	6	—	3	—
—	Taiwan	insufficient data	—	—	32	—	—	—
—	Vatican City	insufficient data	—	—	0	—	—	—

Movers

Biggest risers

Palestinian Territories50.0+5.2
Niger38.0+4.5
Somalia49.3+3.9
Central African Republic49.0+3.8
Gambia37.0+3.4

Biggest fallers

Cape Verde24.6−4.6
Suriname29.0−4.4
Pakistan44.1−2.5
Libya56.0−2.4
Trinidad & Tobago30.5−2.2

Change in points against the previous published edition. (Edition 2023 · 2023)

Sub-indices

The ten most exposed countries in each sub-index

Chokepoints concentrate the risk of small, open economies

71.3

67.6

63.3

62.7

61.8

59.5

59.4

59.4

58.5

57.9

Source: Intelrift, IGE · ChokepointsData through 31 December 2024

Sanctions weigh on jurisdictions under a regime and on their partners

100.0

90.0

87.0

78.2

77.6

75.0

74.6

73.7

73.6

71.8

Source: Intelrift, IGE · SanctionsData through 31 December 2024

Commodity concentration punishes single-product exporters

89.2

81.0

79.8

79.2

77.7

76.7

73.7

72.5

71.3

70.5

Source: Intelrift, IGE · Commodity concentrationData through 31 December 2024

Institutional fragility follows political violence

Somalia

100.0

Sudan

98.6

Congo - Kinshasa

87.7

Central African Republic

87.2

85.6

85.3

81.9

81.7

81.2

80.2

Source: Intelrift, IGE · Institutional fragilityData through 31 December 2024

Sovereign stress shows in reserves, inflation and the currency

Palestinian Territories

98.9

85.1

75.2

72.4

70.9

70.5

66.0

63.8

61.6

60.7

Source: Intelrift, IGE · Sovereign stressData through 31 December 2024

How to read the index

Three things to know before reading a figure

It measures exposure, not prediction.

The IGE measures how much structural damage an economy would suffer from a route closure, tighter sanctions, a swing in its commodities, an institutional crisis or an episode of sovereign stress. It does not say when anything will happen.

The scale is relative to the edition.

Each input is placed between the 5th and 95th percentiles of countries with data and scaled to 0–100. A 70 means being among the most exposed countries in the world in this edition, not 70% of anything.

What is missing is visible.

When a country lacks data for a sub-index it shows as "insufficient data" and the index is computed from the others with renormalised weights. Nothing is filled with a zero or an estimate.

Bands of the scaleMinimal 0–20Low 20–30Moderate 30–40Elevated 40–50High 50–60Severe 60+Bands are for reading the map and the table; the computation works with the continuous figure.

Calibration

Calibration: coming soon

Every edition leaves a public record of its scores and hash. Once there is enough history, the index's calibrated accuracy against real stress episodes will be published here.

Use the index

Download, reproduce or integrate the index

PDF in preparation

Retrospective 2024

Read the methodology

ige-v1

API access

GET /api/v1/geo-index · CSV

Intelrift Institutional

Country readings, full series and priority access to each edition for ministries, funds and media.

Editions archive