Geoeconomic Index · quarterly · public

GeoeconomicIndex.

Retrospective 2025Published on 19 October 2026Data through 31 December 2025Scale 0–100 · higher means more riskBack to the index

How much geoeconomic risk each economy carries: exposure to route closures, sanctions, dependence on a few commodities, institutional fragility and stress in its sovereign markets. Transparent, reproducible and falsifiable.

Three findings of the edition

Iran leads the edition with 62.6 points; Sanctions accounts for 40% of its score.
The biggest riser is Suriname: +5.2 points on the previous edition, driven by commodity concentration.
Malacca is the main chokepoint for 69 countries; 23 of them have more than 10% of GDP exposed to its closure.

Geoeconomic risk, country by country

Source: Intelrift, IGEData through 31 December 2025

Hover to see the score. Click to open the country page.

Ranking

Every country, sortable

192 / 197


1	Iran	62.6	+3.0	48	100	48	60	47
2	Iraq	58.6	+0.1	49	75	79	62	18
3	Libya	58.1	+2.1	44	64	78	67	36
4	Venezuela	57.2	−0.4	17	74	55	85	73
5	South Sudan	56.7	+0.2	27	59	—	75	85
6	Lebanon	55.8	−0.3	64	65	24	77	50
7	Syria	52.9	+0.9	47	78	23	80	34
8	Afghanistan	52.6	+0.7	59	78	29	63	21
9	Myanmar (Burma)	52.3	−0.8	43	74	31	80	34
10	Sudan	51.6	−0.2	27	50	35	99	72
11	Congo - Kinshasa	51.3	−0.8	36	54	54	88	33
12	Ukraine	50.9	+0.7	50	55	33	67	54
13	Belarus	50.8	−1.0	48	87	13	58	40
14	Mali	50.3	0.0	55	36	56	80	29
15	Cuba	50.0	+1.4	45	72	26	54	—
16	Central African Republic	49.4	+0.4	54	46	42	87	21
17	Yemen	49.1	+0.8	41	47	42	71	54
18	Eritrea	48.7	+0.9	70	11	53	69	52
19	Somalia	48.5	−0.8	38	48	42	100	24
20	Russia	48.1	−0.4	18	90	44	59	22
21	Moldova	47.0	+1.4	76	38	29	43	41
22	Palestinian Territories	46.9	−3.1	—	20	33	74	83
23	Burkina Faso	45.8	+0.2	64	8	62	72	32
24	Nicaragua	43.4	+0.1	39	52	30	59	38
25	Tunisia	43.1	0.0	51	39	31	46	50
26	Pakistan	43.0	−1.1	39	48	29	53	51
27	Haiti	42.8	+0.8	27	40	30	87	46
28	Zambia	42.3	−0.7	53	7	53	51	60
29	Angola	42.1	−1.5	31	11	79	50	55
30	Burundi	42.0	+1.0	65	10	36	55	53
31	Turkmenistan	41.3	0.0	38	8	73	62	—
32	Djibouti	41.0	+0.6	58	8	30	72	52
33	Türkiye	40.9	−0.4	28	57	21	40	64
34	Chad	40.7	−0.7	39	9	68	71	28
35	Ethiopia	40.5	+0.7	50	10	41	63	52
36	Guinea-Bissau	40.5	+0.1	27	35	44	68	40
37	Guinea	40.1	+1.2	36	28	33	79	36
38	Kuwait	40.0	+0.9	40	22	78	33	26
39	Nigeria	40.0	−1.4	31	15	59	62	50
40	Georgia	39.8	+0.4	59	28	22	42	50
41	Kyrgyzstan	39.8	−0.8	48	26	33	58	40
42	Kazakhstan	39.8	+1.6	32	28	56	38	52
43	Zimbabwe	39.7	0.0	45	20	27	58	61
44	Equatorial Guinea	39.6	+0.3	22	7	89	83	14
45	Panama	39.5	−0.6	41	31	26	49	60
46	Liberia	39.3	+1.9	46	16	48	55	40
47	Jordan	39.0	+0.7	61	30	23	32	46
48	Mongolia	38.9	+0.7	47	7	56	44	51
49	Oman	38.6	0.0	42	26	58	28	40
50	Mexico	38.3	+1.3	20	42	36	61	44
51	Gambia	37.7	+0.7	39	22	42	55	37
52	Malawi	37.7	+1.0	49	0	45	50	61
53	Niger	37.7	−0.3	40	17	44	66	33
54	Congo - Brazzaville	37.6	+0.5	30	8	71	55	37
55	Guyana	37.3	+0.1	37	10	66	54	29
56	Bolivia	37.1	+1.4	47	11	31	52	56
57	North Macedonia	36.8	−0.5	59	22	28	40	36
58	Malaysia	36.7	−0.2	44	42	31	22	38
59	Azerbaijan	36.6	−1.2	38	17	59	45	27
60	Paraguay	36.6	0.0	39	16	46	54	37
61	Uzbekistan	36.5	−0.3	42	26	37	49	32
62	Maldives	36.3	−0.7	42	20	43	43	39
63	Armenia	36.2	+0.6	53	28	15	41	46
64	Honduras	36.2	+0.5	40	21	27	69	35
65	Egypt	35.9	−0.1	33	28	22	40	68
66	Qatar	35.6	+0.6	40	19	70	19	28
67	Mauritania	35.4	+0.5	53	12	38	50	29
68	Singapore	35.4	+0.3	58	45	31	1	24
69	India	35.2	+0.2	35	43	24	32	40
70	Seychelles	35.2	+0.1	63	15	36	22	35
71	El Salvador	35.2	+0.5	38	12	30	55	56
72	Laos	35.1	−1.0	43	14	31	52	46
73	Mozambique	34.9	+0.4	31	9	42	56	56
74	Jamaica	34.7	0.0	46	12	26	56	46
75	Bulgaria	34.6	+0.5	50	33	16	40	32
76	Bahrain	34.4	+0.5	38	19	35	37	52
77	Dominican Republic	34.4	+1.3	41	17	34	43	44
78	United Arab Emirates	34.3	+0.8	35	50	32	15	30
79	Suriname	34.2	+5.2	25	8	55	44	58
80	Vietnam	34.2	+0.6	40	22	34	40	40
81	Morocco	33.8	−0.3	44	19	30	48	31
82	Cyprus	33.7	+1.2	47	40	25	25	22
83	China	33.4	0.0	21	58	28	32	23
84	Uganda	33.4	+0.5	47	21	18	45	40
85	Cambodia	33.3	+0.8	42	20	33	46	27
86	Bosnia & Herzegovina	33.1	+0.1	31	33	25	50	30
87	Bangladesh	33.1	−0.4	31	13	40	44	51
88	Saudi Arabia	33.1	+0.4	26	31	54	24	28
89	Senegal	33.0	+0.1	50	12	22	29	60
90	Guatemala	32.9	−0.1	31	28	28	60	24
91	Algeria	32.8	+0.7	18	18	73	38	22
92	Colombia	32.4	+0.3	15	27	32	58	45
93	Gabon	32.2	−1.1	29	0	51	66	33
94	Comoros	32.2	−0.3	27	7	46	74	24
95	Lesotho	32.1	+0.3	50	0	34	60	25
96	Serbia	32.1	+0.7	38	37	7	48	31
97	Papua New Guinea	32.0	+1.1	27	0	58	52	39
98	Sri Lanka	31.8	−0.4	37	13	27	38	54
99	South Africa	31.7	−0.4	17	36	20	52	43
100	Mauritius	31.4	+0.4	50	6	32	24	50
101	Philippines	31.4	+0.3	26	27	34	42	35
102	Belize	31.3	−0.1	21	15	45	57	32
103	Kenya	31.2	−0.2	29	24	24	43	45
104	Ecuador	31.0	−0.3	26	18	31	53	39
105	Argentina	30.8	−0.5	12	24	26	43	70
106	Thailand	30.8	−0.5	35	33	26	35	22
107	Romania	30.6	−0.1	35	17	33	35	38
108	Slovakia	30.5	+0.4	37	18	38	29	31
109	Brazil	30.4	−0.1	14	24	30	50	50
110	Rwanda	30.4	+0.1	44	18	18	29	46
111	Cameroon	30.3	+0.3	31	6	35	63	30
112	Montenegro	30.3	+0.2	30	17	24	33	59
113	Tajikistan	30.3	−0.8	43	16	26	50	19
114	Sierra Leone	30.2	−1.4	26	10	32	50	48
115	Belgium	30.1	−0.3	43	34	23	13	29
116	Brunei	30.1	−0.9	40	0	75	16	17
117	Kosovo	30.0	+0.7	—	22	—	43	30
118	Israel	29.9	−0.7	11	34	37	47	28
119	Greece	29.8	−1.2	38	28	16	33	34
120	Malta	29.8	+0.1	39	28	36	24	15
121	Chile	29.6	−0.1	31	15	39	26	43
122	São Tomé & Príncipe	29.5	+0.2	34	0	49	45	30
123	Timor-Leste	29.5	+0.5	22	0	68	44	26
124	Costa Rica	29.4	+0.5	30	19	33	33	38
125	Hungary	29.4	−0.1	35	14	32	33	40
126	Indonesia	29.3	+0.6	19	34	24	34	41
127	Netherlands	29.2	−0.3	45	37	23	5	22
128	Trinidad & Tobago	29.2	−1.3	18	9	44	60	32
129	Italy	29.1	−0.1	30	29	30	24	32
130	South Korea	28.9	−0.1	37	21	33	12	40
131	Germany	28.8	+0.5	24	45	32	10	24
132	Slovenia	28.8	+0.8	50	10	40	18	21
133	Eswatini	28.8	+0.3	36	0	29	66	28
134	Côte d’Ivoire	28.7	−0.6	26	9	37	46	38
135	Dominica	28.7	+0.9	17	11	36	44	52
136	United States	28.6	+1.3	4	44	24	28	51
137	Madagascar	28.2	+0.5	37	4	23	60	29
138	Nepal	28.0	+0.9	50	0	26	46	24
139	Spain	27.9	+0.5	26	34	23	23	32
140	Namibia	27.8	+0.1	35	12	17	38	46
141	Tanzania	27.8	+0.4	23	12	33	43	42
142	France	27.7	−0.2	18	39	32	17	32
143	Ghana	27.4	−1.6	30	7	38	33	37
144	Albania	27.2	−0.5	29	19	26	39	29
145	Bhutan	26.9	+0.4	44	0	39	15	39
146	United Kingdom	26.8	−0.2	19	48	14	12	38
147	Peru	26.6	+0.1	22	19	33	41	25
148	Benin	26.2	+0.1	26	10	29	38	37
149	Botswana	26.0	+0.2	41	0	38	32	22
150	Czechia	25.8	−0.2	33	15	39	14	25
151	Bahamas	25.5	+1.2	25	9	22	42	42
152	Ireland	25.4	+1.2	27	24	42	7	21
153	Japan	25.4	−0.4	29	27	31	3	31
154	Canada	25.3	+0.5	4	41	24	7	55
155	Fiji	25.2	+0.9	36	3	26	26	43
156	Solomon Islands	25.0	+0.6	25	0	47	44	19
157	Palau	24.9	+1.0	22	9	38	28	36
158	Cape Verde	24.6	0.0	20	4	49	27	30
159	Poland	24.5	−0.1	23	18	32	19	34
160	Togo	24.3	−1.0	23	4	27	55	27
161	St Kitts & Nevis	23.7	+0.7	3	14	39	43	34
162	St Vincent & the Grenadines	23.7	+0.2	12	6	38	43	36
163	Grenada	23.5	+0.9	30	0	30	34	33
164	Antigua & Barbuda	23.4	+0.4	15	4	42	29	39
165	Croatia	23.4	+0.1	32	10	23	28	28
166	Kiribati	23.3	+2.5	21	0	42	31	32
167	Austria	23.0	−0.2	20	28	28	10	26
168	Micronesia	22.9	+0.9	31	0	44	22	21
169	Latvia	22.8	+0.7	24	22	19	20	30
170	Portugal	22.8	+0.3	28	12	30	18	28
171	Lithuania	22.0	+0.1	34	14	21	14	26
172	Vanuatu	22.0	+0.7	15	8	37	36	23
173	Switzerland	21.7	−0.1	25	40	14	1	17
174	Sweden	21.7	−0.8	15	32	24	3	32
175	Australia	21.4	+0.1	8	17	33	4	53
176	Norway	21.4	−0.1	10	21	48	2	26
177	Barbados	20.6	−0.8	15	6	24	21	50
178	St Lucia	20.6	+0.7	12	3	28	44	32
179	Luxembourg	20.6	0.0	25	24	26	2	20
180	Uruguay	20.6	+0.7	23	6	30	18	31
181	Estonia	20.3	−0.6	18	29	18	7	27
182	Finland	20.3	−0.4	17	35	17	3	23
183	Tonga	20.3	+2.5	16	0	41	30	24
184	New Zealand	20.1	+0.2	16	13	28	2	48
185	Denmark	17.9	+0.4	17	13	32	4	24
186	Samoa	16.9	+0.4	16	3	31	24	16
187	Andorra	13.9	−0.3	—	0	41	8	7
188	Iceland	13.8	−0.3	14	3	21	2	34
189	Marshall Islands	13.7	+0.9	6	20	1	32	14
190	Nauru	11.9	+0.8	3	0	19	34	15
191	Tuvalu	11.3	+0.1	4	0	—	35	18
192	San Marino	7.0	+0.1	—	3	—	13	8
—	North Korea	insufficient data	—	—	75	—	82	—
—	Liechtenstein	insufficient data	—	—	17	—	4	—
—	Monaco	insufficient data	—	—	6	—	6	—
—	Taiwan	insufficient data	—	—	32	—	—	—
—	Vatican City	insufficient data	—	—	0	—	—	—

Movers

Biggest risers

Suriname34.2+5.2
Iran62.6+3.0
Kiribati23.3+2.5
Tonga20.3+2.5
Libya58.1+2.1

Biggest fallers

Palestinian Territories46.9−3.1
Ghana27.4−1.6
Angola42.1−1.5
Nigeria40.0−1.4
Sierra Leone30.2−1.4

Change in points against the previous published edition. (Edition 2024 · 2024)

Sub-indices

The ten most exposed countries in each sub-index

Chokepoints concentrate the risk of small, open economies

75.9

69.5

64.8

63.8

63.5

62.6

60.7

58.7

58.5

58.5

Source: Intelrift, IGE · ChokepointsData through 31 December 2025

Sanctions weigh on jurisdictions under a regime and on their partners

100.0

90.0

87.0

78.2

77.6

75.0

74.6

73.7

73.6

71.8

Source: Intelrift, IGE · SanctionsData through 31 December 2025

Commodity concentration punishes single-product exporters

89.2

79.0

78.6

78.3

78.0

74.9

73.4

72.5

70.7

70.0

Source: Intelrift, IGE · Commodity concentrationData through 31 December 2025

Institutional fragility follows political violence

Somalia

100.0

Sudan

98.6

Congo - Kinshasa

87.7

Central African Republic

86.8

86.8

84.6

82.7

81.6

80.2

80.1

Source: Intelrift, IGE · Institutional fragilityData through 31 December 2025

Sovereign stress shows in reserves, inflation and the currency

South Sudan

85.0

Palestinian Territories

83.3

72.9

71.7

69.5

68.2

63.5

61.4

60.6

59.8

Source: Intelrift, IGE · Sovereign stressData through 31 December 2025

How to read the index

Three things to know before reading a figure

It measures exposure, not prediction.

The IGE measures how much structural damage an economy would suffer from a route closure, tighter sanctions, a swing in its commodities, an institutional crisis or an episode of sovereign stress. It does not say when anything will happen.

The scale is relative to the edition.

Each input is placed between the 5th and 95th percentiles of countries with data and scaled to 0–100. A 70 means being among the most exposed countries in the world in this edition, not 70% of anything.

What is missing is visible.

When a country lacks data for a sub-index it shows as "insufficient data" and the index is computed from the others with renormalised weights. Nothing is filled with a zero or an estimate.

Bands of the scaleMinimal 0–20Low 20–30Moderate 30–40Elevated 40–50High 50–60Severe 60+Bands are for reading the map and the table; the computation works with the continuous figure.

Calibration

Calibration: coming soon

Every edition leaves a public record of its scores and hash. Once there is enough history, the index's calibrated accuracy against real stress episodes will be published here.

Use the index

Download, reproduce or integrate the index

PDF in preparation

Retrospective 2025

Read the methodology

ige-v1

API access

GET /api/v1/geo-index · CSV

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